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Turquoise

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    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, summer blizzard said:

    According to people earlier it was showers in advance of the front that were the threat however these are few and far between. So far it's just the front itself invigorating thanks to Welsh uplift (and likely Pennine uplift further east).

    Hard to guage from models because UKV just showed a few speradic showers. 

    It could be the current squall lines over Wales that will explode into something big once they hit the NE

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Turquoise

    5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    All the time lol. Like other day when French storms spewed up a load of cloud over the uk completly destroying our chances of forecasted storms. At least today there is  plenty of space and favorable conditions for storms to develop.

    i dont see the point in running models a full week ahead for it to show a potential event and then it change 24-48 hours before.  People who planned storm chases or had things to do are left disappointed. Its always best to nowcast, radar watch and look at the sky maybe the day before and then we can get excited lol.

    As for actually today, yes storm development could be anywhere, although the NE are going to do well particularly well. 

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ruck Bodgers said:

    Back home in Stoke, just wondering to ask if everyone seems to think it'll be a bust tomorrow due to the quickness of the cold front from what you guys have been saying?

    The models are disagreeing with each other even now lol....hard to say, there is a bit of 'mackerel' sky right now not far from you so that's usually a good sign...

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

    And that's why people should wait and do their own forecasts. Rather than hyping something up based off 1 model run 3 days out. Anyway, tomorrow is only as disappointing as you make it. Enjoy everything to a big extent and you'll find much more joy in small storms, that's why I'm out here saying storm of the year after I get a moderately good shelf cloud and 2 lightning strikes.

    Of course. But it doesn't help running models a week ahead and hyping up potential events when on almost every occasion it changes later on. Just makes no sense, and leaves people disappointed.

    • Like 5

    Northwest Weather Discussion

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

    Lovely bright orange lightning to my SSE, coming from Leek direction, can be seen also on the Winking Man live cam.  Cannot hear any thunder though.

    saw one distant faint flash here and thats it...not sure if any cells will pop up closer, does seem to be an uptick in activity tonight

    • Like 4

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Wimbledon88 said:

    We live in a world now that even professional meteorologists talk about '' the risk of showers '' In places that haven't seen a drop in over a month. 

    I think last summer on one of the days they did a 10% storm warning for the whole country. That way if they get it right its brilliant forecasting. if they didn't then it was just a 10% warning anyway. Either way it looks good. 

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Convective Outlook ⚡ 

    Sunday 23:00 - Monday 21:00

    Overnight a few elevated showers with occasional lightning may occur behind the departing MCS, with the continued strong Theta-W. Energy is weak but there may be enough to spark a weak thunderstorm somewhere in the channel. Those should weaken by early morning hours. There may also be a few rumbles into the night from the storms currently pushing through the north of England but they should generally weaken and depart as the evening goes on.

    As the surface heating kicks in, modest but in places strong bouyancy looks possible in the UK. Combine that lift with 600 J/KG of energy and we've got a slight risk day with scattered showers and weak thunderstorms possible in the UK.

    Generally forcing is low (ish) relative to how much of it can be ingested by the storms and CAPE is too low to worry about the shear and hoe long the storms in the UK will last. Generally they'll be pulse-storms with a few longer-lived ones.

    Turning attention to Ireland where CAPE in excess of 1,500 J/KG at the surface means thst storms can latch onto that bouyancy, providing vigorous convection. In the morning shear should be running parallel to the passing cold front out east, though its on the western extent of the shearing and so as it gets towards initiation in the afternoon, the shearing weaks to virtually non existant. So mainly pulse-storms look to be the mode of convection. The CAPE may be enough to produce clusters in some areas though.

    A shortwave trough in the area, provides just enough forcing support for a moderate risk to be placed in Ireland. So a tentative low-end moderate has been placed in Ireland due to fairly good confidence of storm formation within that area, with the AROME being especially strong there.

    Strong moisture and PWAT with low to the ground LCL's along with ample entrainment CAPE has meant that we've gone for a small severe risk for possible flooding in Ireland. Perhaps some small hail is also possible but unlikely to reach severe status.

    20230618_220507.thumb.jpg.a77c8bfe43af95257b92c85d17bce8d7.jpg

    Ireland has had a fantastic summer already for storms, Wales too.

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