Metwatch

Temperature plummeting after sunset, currently -0.6⁰C. Imho, slim chance, best may get for northern midlands is a cm - 2 slightly more further north maybe. Hope I'm wrong and it's a surprise but we'll see. Temperature plummeting after sunset, currently -0.6⁰C. Imho, slim chance, best may get for northern midlands is a cm - 2 slightly more further north maybe. Hope I'm wrong and it's a surprise but we'll see.

Hovering between 16-17⁰C in the bedroom upstairs with moderate central heating and electric radiators for a few hours at night.

Down to a nippy -4⁰C this morning, about 3⁰C lower than met office forecast. I can imagine with snow cover that being at least a few degrees colder.

Just gone past half 5 and already an air frost as temperature is now at -0.1⁰C Friday morning looks interesting for a small sprinkling of snow, ARPEGE and AROME showing it.

More in the shorter range & more certain time frame. Some higher-res models now picking up on a small feature which may bring a dusting - few cm of snow for Thursday night across more inland areas of England, moving southwards. Uncertain on placement, coverage & intensity for now, but it does show that these can pop up at short notice, which lower resolution NWPMs don't pick up as much.

First air frost of the season, down to -1.2⁰C

Should finally manage the frost air frost of the cold season, which locally will be the second latest on record. UKMO 12z is pure beauty for us fellow midlanders, GFS and ECM 00z showed similar this morning, for now we can only dream for that to happen, but it isn't impossible

Lovely eye candy from the UKMO at 7 days away, similar to what GFS and ECM 00z showed this morning. Some of the det runs are really teasing us with emotions.

Looking at the Met Office fax chart a cold front, albeit weakening slowly, heads south on Thursday. I reckon if there's some precipitation in it (likely to contain mostly snow) could give a dusting to a cm in places, especially during early morning.

The 850s aren't representative of what happens at the surface as quick silver pointed out. Slack winds, very low sun / short daylength, low heights, that would make surface temperatures cold or very cold, not much above freezing during the day and well below by night.

Digged out my proper warm winter jacket out ready for the cold season

Looks quite bad

The GFS 6z was a good example of the trough modelled out in the azores going from having a positive tilt to a negative tilt. (A negatively tilted trough tilts horizontally, parallel to surface, from the north west to south east) This would increase frontal snowfall risk as it meets against the blocking ridge, with milder air essentially being squeezed out should it verify.

Some of the recent milder output on some det runs we know is due to this subtropical low west of the Azores. (Which hasn't even formed yet) Some show it barrelling towards us bringing snow on the leading edge then milder air. It's unlikely we'll see this but it's not impossible... ECM this morning kept it well to the south of us, keeping the cold much longer and a continued frost/snow risk. The outlook remains cold until at least next weekend, but after that, less certain, as tropical/arctic air clash, equating to high levels of Shannon entropy. We could still end with quite the snow event should the low be negatively tilted and slide through the channel area, time will tell!

Some of the individual det runs are indeed Interesting for those looking for more large amounts of snow. I think the big lows being modelled to come in closer on some output is eye catching . It could really cause a dumping for central and southern areas of England/Wales especially if a channel low pops up once the cold is locked over the UK. Synoptic setup would obviously need to be near perfect for that to happen but does give hope for us further south.

Night and midday temperatures next Friday from the ECM, very cold

Jesus Christ ECM absolutely blows the other 12z det runs in terms of bringing the cold by next Wednesday.

At this point in time we needn't be worried about where snow will be seen. What is most important is bringing the cold down later next week which is quite likely now given the signals for a Greenland block to set up shortly, as long as the Iberian low doesn't cause too much issues, which is still possible. After we are at that stage then we look closer at snow potential, coming in the form of shortwaves, or major low pressure areas such as a channel low. Certainly not the typical start to a British meteorological winter, infact quite the opposite!

No respite in this warmth up until now, November has had such a high CET relative to average

Quite chilly under the blanket of low cloud & fog this afternoon with even gfs overestimating the daytime maxes by 1-2 degrees. My max only 5.5c today. I reckon it'll be a common theme for most this week as high pressure becomes dominant with weak sun & little in the way of wind to clear it away.

Good gracious

Probably the only month that will be below average this year. Drier than recent too. 3.6⁰C and 34mm

Extreme high likelihood of a Scandi ridge pattern -> blocked negative NAO pattern by this weekend, with models in good agreement. For cold fans this is the best shot at something quite cold in December, since at least Dec 2017 and potentially 2010, even in the south. However it must be said that a negative NAO pattern is by no means a guaranteed factor for cold and widespread snow and can often lead to a less cold pattern due to various syntopic factors. Details still low but overall the direction we're heading in is quite good

GEM probably the highlight of this evening's runs so far, by 240 hours places staying around or slightly below 0c - an ice day! Snow also starting to pile up for eastern areas. Likely an outlier in the ensemble suite though.