Metwatch

Active cold front sweeping through this afternoon, with a possible squall line. Really can't get enough of the rainfall this November!

If you are looking for a something a bit drier and to have a break from recent rainfall, then the 18z GFS op might be for you. Central and eastern to North eastern areas seeing <15mm for this run.

GEFS 00z extended member number 20, saying a Merry Christmas with -15 uppers through England.

Severn trent region average reservoir levels recovering nicely in the last 2 months, 20% increase. The dry summer feeling like a very distant memory.

Nothing but facts spoken here

Considering the air sourced isn't that cold in East Europe, the residual cold in the near continent still allows the -10 isotherm to just about reach here. We can only imagine if the 850s were 5-10 degrees colder what we could have. Unfortunately we need to remember that it's likely a different solution will come up next run.

Though nothing overly cold, The gfs 12z would bring in a lovely start to the winter does this exact outcome play out. Crisp winter sunshine and frosty misty mornings, who wouldn't love some of that!

Wanted to point out the current Sea Surface temperatures, They are looking quite mild relative to average, and if we manage to get colder air like what the end of the operational GFS 06z shows, the lake effect machine could be quite something, delivering a lot of snow. Still a big IF though.

A minimum of 2.2c last might - joint coldest night this autumn Monday was atrocious with a full day of rain and a max of 7.0c making that the coldest daytime max since March 2nd and colder than all of the daytime maxes of February this year. November finally feeling like November with those temperatures! Monthly total is up to 128mm.

Hovering in the high teens in most rooms with moderate heating on/off this week. I've noticed how sitting in a room with a warm laptop and the boiler can make a room 1-3c warmer than without such as in another bedroom!

Last week or so nights have been getting chilly down to low single figures so heating is on for a good half of the day in recent weeks now. Electric radiator has been put on 3 times last week during few hours at night to keep the warmth. Indeed! Even though i would prefer milder temperatures in winter to reduce energy costs, the big issue that arises is how humid it becomes, sometimes approaching or even touching 70% humidity downstairs. A de-humidfier can help with the issue though.

Overall decent but not a spectacular summer with some intense moments, not great start but quickly improved. Breaking the 100f barrier was unprecedented in July, and I remember it feeling so hot that the sun wasn't the hottest element but actually the wind feeling like a hair drier. Following night was unbearable. It was nice to have a Hot and dry August for a change. There was lack of storms though, instead getting them in May, September especially and once in October. Summer 2020 still takes the crown for thunderstorm frequency though, and 2018 for more warmth and dryness in recent summers.

Was just a little young to remember but found a few family photos from Feb 2007 here which had several inches of snow during the 7th in what was a very mild winter. Somewhat surprising event but I imagine a pleasant one for the cold fans.

Haven't got many strong memories of 2013 however the snow in Jan 2013 and heat during July i remember fairly well. Walking from school when it closed early due to snow during Jan 2013 is a very fond memory of mine, i remember it being so peaceful and quiet while the snow fell and sliding through it. I think I might recall a day from March 2013 some snow around otherwise nothing that stands out to me. Summer of 2013 I remember a few walks in the countryside and watching the sunset once, does make me feel nostalgic for it.

Cannot believe it's been almost 5 years since one of the greatest late winter/early spring cold event living in England i've personally experienced. Having temperatutes of -3 to -4 for most of the first day of meteorological Spring along with dry drifting snow (not the wet slushy type!) is mind boggling, let alone to witness that during the middle of winter. Also what astounds me is how after the 2nd beast during Mid March, 4 weeks later mid - high twenties were seen across large areas of the country, something that facinates me about spring: The sudden changes that can and does happen in conditions for a short span of time. The SW is underrated for having some of the best blizzards. A few good but older events come to mind such as mid Feb 1978 and the last few days of December 1962

Been a while since i posted on Netweather but I am back. Autumn 2022 I would have to admit, has been quite mediocre, and rather mild up until recently, no air frost and recorded the first sub 10c daytime max of the season last Thursday. Charts certainly look interesting with plenty to talk about as we head into the final days of this season, still remains if we'll get something out of them though.

Should be quite a bit of rain further north and west there shouldn't be as bad. Demand here further south and east is higher, more concerning maybe.

i'm not sure if i'm liking this. Sunny warm weather is nice too but i am getting slightly concerned about reservoirs, particularly further south, Severn Trent isn't really recovering after the rain much, in the south still dry, effects from April/May carrying on. Not sure what August/Autumn could be like as well.

And plus we have had too much warm wx this year like it just has to be colder later this year otherwise we may have warmest Uk year on record. QBO definintly needs to do its job too. Hopefully we get an early SSW and in its right scenario for cold wx. Also the strong sea ice loss may help too, and hoping that snow cover gets quick to recover. Tripole in the SSTA is another good sign.

I think things will ramp up soon, the CCKW which is what MjVentrice has talked about, Eric Webb with a possible strong tropical wave coming out from Africa in 10-14 days time, warmer than normal SSTA'S in the atlantic around 5-15N above equator, these are all pointing to some strong devlopements soon, however probs wont be anything as good of a potential as in september of course. needs a close eye from a weeks time imo

To be honest, Ecm 00z looks a tad thundery after T + 192hrs with quite a warm low pressure system coming slowly, staying around al lway to 240hrs wouildn't mind it coming off actually, but uncertain at this stage

TWO has gone for a nicER August not sure will play out but a thundery or warm August would be interesting to see

Can notice a few unlucky people just by looking at that, though those who didn't get a direct thunderstorm, pretty much everyone would have at least seen distant light shows. An absolute bombardment for me. You managed to scrape some Kent clippers too, nice!

Focusing more for this afternoon here, could have more activity, doubt anything will turn thundery, likely to be similar to yesterday, where i had a few heavy showers, Majority forming quite late in the day. Maybe more today.

Bit late but will enter the competition. my entry: CET: 17.0 EWP:71.5mm Reasoning/Details: With precipitation, it again looks like to fall mostly in the first half, slightly drier second half, thundery in between maybe. However this month i imagine if could be slightly wetter but still, with a lot of dry weather featured, noteworthingly in the South. The EWP likely exaggerated/higher than expected as the north and west gets a near continuous battering of rain from the atlantic giving some quite high totals, hence impacting the EWP(large area it covers) for the first week. The possible thundery element could help increase that EWP too later. The CET looks a bit easier, first half of june looks quite average/ slightly cooler with altnernating cooler/warmer spells. however second half, like June could feature some particularly warmer air drifiting to the Uk bumping up the CET but unsure how much just yet,