Lord Grogon

No! Please don’t kill the dream.....

To conclude my (rather pointless) 24 hour research project into “That ECM”, I am pleased to say that I finally found the thread. Thank you to ThatECM for your help in the end. I realise this is not relevant and I promise never to post here again on the subject. As a final gesture, below is the ECM 12z at T192 from 5 Dec 2012 that started the biggest forum meltdown in the history of Netweather.

I was the one who raised this question yesterday. It was quite hard to research due to the sheer number of posts in the archive. Plus you can’t see all the pictures. The 12z on 9th Jan 2013 was my best guess. It drove the forum nuts but was watered substantially down afterwards. Happy to be proved wrong though.

Thank you to everyone who responded earlier. For anyone who is interested, I think I've pinned it down to the ECM12z on 9 Jan 2013. It's hard to say for certain because I can't access most of the model pictures via the archives. But there was a heck of a lot of excitement. Between 9-14 Jan there were thousands of posts going through each day! If I recall, it did snow in Jan 2013, but it wasn't an epic Easterly. March of 2013 was definitely colder, indeed it was the coldest month of that winter which is a fairly rare event. If there is a lesson for anyone from this it's never to ignore a model simply because it isn't showing what you want to see (in that case the GFS). The forum was a veritable bear pit during those heady days and sadly, anyone who tried to preach caution was given a rough time or even worse simply labelled a troll.

Quiet in here this afternoon. Not unexpected given the uncertainty at the moment. If anybody is feeling bored, but helpful, I have a curious itch that needs a good scratch please. I often hear references to “that ECM”. I gather it was some sort of predicted Easterly around 2012 that never happened. I’d be interested to know more about it. At what timescale did it change. Was it a sudden change or death by a thousand downgrades? How did it align with the other models? I gather is must be a big deal here. After all, a poster has even named themselves after it! Any references or links would be most welcome. I know it’s a sad request, but it’s been chucking it down all day (rain) and I’m after something interesting to read about.

Absolutely chucking it down again. Our local river has had more ups and downs recently than shares in GameStop,

Aww how sweet! We have our own little storm.

If there’s ever a chart that screams painful Netweather cliche, this is it....

My non scientific guess is that it hits a sweet spot of elevation + distance from sea + the definition of “Midlands” being quite a large area. It’s also only really a factor for fronts approaching from a W/SW (ish) direction which there have been quite a few of recently. I’m sure there is a better way of explaining this though.

I have a secret dream to have a comment recommended by Tamara. About as likely as snow in Upminster though.

This may be deleted. It’s a shame you two can’t get along. I’ve only been on this site recently and from what I see you two are two of the most intelligent posters here. Engaging in a mature debate should be possible surely for everyone’s benefit. Then again, I’ve managed to get (nearly) the most recommends the last 2 nights by posting stupid comments so maybe a good bun fight is what the masses want. Secretly though, all I want to know if it may snow in Upminster sometime soon which I’m sure you guys are far more likely to know than I. Stay safe LG

It’s part of a special group of painfully frustrating terms including: Uncertainty Battleground Midlands North Downgrade Pesky shortwave Dew points too high Usually correct south Still waiting for the effects of the SSW. Phasing issue

I love your posts. They vie with Tamara’s for being the most confusing, albeit in a slightly different way.

I’m no model expert, but the ass end of the latest GFS! No sleety muck on that bad boy.

Anyone here in Norwich? Looks like something quite fruity is brewing there...

Saddest thing for me is, I went for my Sunday morning run as usual. When I got home my 2 daughters (5 and 3) were waiting by the back door in their hat, gloves and coat full of excitement. My youngest has never seen snow on the ground. My wife had got various messages from friends in London full of videos of heavy snow and assumed it was about to start here given we are only 15 miles further East. To see the excitement fade away as the small amount of snow at the start quickly faded to sleet and then rain. Ouch

I suppose it’s a punishment for Cambridge now being the hottest place ever in the UK.

If somebody had done that to me, I’d have got out and cleaned my passenger side windows too.

The C2C show shield did it’s job well today.

chionophobia = fear of snow. Well I never. Learned something new today, courtesy of the BBC. Assumed if you suffered from it you would reside somewhere around here.

Gritty McGritface?

Plus pretty much the whole country was bloomin’ cold that month. There’s a really great satellite photo taken in Jan just after almost the whole country was covered in snow.

Looks a bit Dec2009. The legendary Basingstoke snow event being the centre.

I know it's unscientific and stupid of me, but I really dislike the UKV. I come along for my morning read, see all these nice big purple blobs on the ECM/GFS which I know are low res but sill gives hope of a good dumping. And then somebody kills the dream by posting the UKV that turns those nice big blobs into pathetic little blobs.

I guess it’s their fair reward for 2 days of relentless rain...