Frigid
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Posts posted by Frigid
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kold weather Will be quite something if April comes in cooler than February and March. When was the last time that happened?
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Now that's extreme! Many places stay below freezing all day, that air would be colder than anything we saw this winter.. mind you it's the GFS so it definitely won't verify. Classic pub run
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Not a fan of heat, but if we do get it then the drier the better. Spells like July 2019, August 2020 and 2022 just remind me how humid it can get during heatwaves. Absolute unbearable at times, especially during night. I do have fond memories of July 2013 and 2018 as the heat was a lot drier. The Jul 2022 spell had a min humidity of 18% which I think is a record for here, felt like an actual desert. That said, it was a lot more manageable than those heatwaves mentioned.
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raz.org.rain True it would've been a lot cooler if SSTs weren't so anomalously high. July 2023 would've been like 2012 if SSTs were around average.
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raz.org.rain Think it's way too early to predict summer. July 2023 was primed to be hot, and what we got was the completely opposite. Can recall the LRFs suggesting a hot month but it all collapsed.
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kold weather The most impressive thing about April 2021 is the amount of sunshine coupled with numerous frosts. It's one of the driest, sunniest Aprils on record. You could compare April 2021 and Dec 2010 with it's minimum CET; April 2021 has the coldest min CET on record, same with Dec 2010.
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Hard to believe that this was four years ago, time really flew by. My recollections of Spring 2020 were mainly positive. The end of March 2020 was blue skies for days, something that I hadn't seen since Summer 2019. April was a mild, but pleasant month with many sunny days and cool night temperatures. It was very dry and sunny, only beaten a year later which I believe is the sunniest April on record. May was a great month, except the final few days where it got a bit too warm for my liking. The mid month cool spell was very potent and brought some sharp frosts, something I've not observed this late into the season. All of this gave way to a very boring summer and autumn.
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7 hours ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:
2015 36.7 Yes
2016 35.2 Yes
2017 34.5
2018 35.6 Yes
2019 38.7 Yes
2020 37.8 Yes
2021 32.2
2022 40.3 Yes
2023 33.5
Wow 2015 really set a trend here didn't it. 2021 and 23 the only normal years.
As for my prediction, I put down 33.8C in a previous thread. But looking at the data, I'm more inclined to go higher. Going for 36.3C, 14th July.
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baddie That would be great. April 2021 is the driest April since 2011, would be much welcome after such a wet last 9 months. Mild, sunny days with hard night frosts.. one of the best spring months I've experienced to this day.
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Once again, a month that had promise to show some cold weather has been dashed away in favour of mild. Honestly can't put into words how disappointing this season has been, with no promise to be seen in March. On the plus side, my 7.2C prediction looks quite good atm.
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baddie We did have May 2008/10/12 which all had quite warm spells, especially 2012. I often rate May more than June as a more reliable summer month.
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The 00z was an extreme outlier, virtually no support from it's ensembles or other models at this point.
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LetItSnow! Yes, May 2020 was an exceptional month for the reason it had a potent cold spell and also a very warm spell, though I think 2012 is still on top for that exceptional heatwave in the final 10 days. The mid month northerly brought temps down to -3.5C here, which is quite astonishing for how late in the year it was. Keep in mind Summer was only 2/3 weeks away.
May frosts actually aren't as rare as I first thought, especially up north. Other May's where I've witnessed frosts in the last 10 years are 2015, 2018 (surprisingly), 2019 and 2021, though 2020 was by far the latest.
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Daniel* Beat me to it, the July-August period last year was completely devoid of heat spikes and warm spells we've been so accustomed to. As with 2011, all the warmth that year were in the months you wouldn't expect them to be.
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B87 June 2012 saw an average max of 16.6C.. and in 91, a max of only 15.6C! Most May's are warmer than that these days. I suspect 1971/72 to be even lower.
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The disparity between north and south climates is quite astonishing, especially in summer. The 10 year average max for Heathrow is around 25C for July. Up here it's more like 21C, though we do get the odd month where it does average 25C (July 2018). Last July, the average max for Manchester Airport was 18.9C. July 2020 saw 18.4C. Those figures would be near impossible down south. I'd class anything below 20C as quite cool, and below 19C as very cool for the given climate. Anything above 22C would be warm, and 23C very warm.
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20C - 14th April
25C - 22nd May
Summer predictions:
30C - 7th July
I don't think we'll reach 35C, going for a max of 33.7C.
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Roger J Smith Shows how exceptional February actually was. I have a feeling we'll end up around average for the CET, unless there's a cold second half or we see another 2022 style warm spell. There's a chance that even April could come in below February's CET, if any blocking we see is positioned north of us.
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SollyOlly Agree, the first half of July 2018 wasn't too bad given the humidity was quite low. Only found it uncomfortable during the second half and into August.
As for what heatwave I'd like to see this year, a one that maxes out at 25c. Preferably none, but this climate doesn't support that anymore
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The 1779 record still lives on.. I wonder how long that will last for given the unprecedented amount of warmth February has seen recently. It's clearly our fastest warming month of the year, close to July. The average CET for February since 2019 is a staggering 6.7C.. surely it has to break at some point.
Feb 2024 would be considered a warm March, the 15th warmest March in fact. Still, it doesn't even come close to December 2015 figures which blew the previous record out of the water.
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Uncertainty First BOOM chart since mid Jan. Of course we start to see eye candy as soon as winter ends lol
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Harry233 A year of extremes 2021 was for you guys. I went to Dundee in August 2021 and was astonished how sunny and warm it was, certainly didn't feel like your typical Scottish summer. 2021 had a sort of continental feel, similar to 2013 and 1995. Southerners can't relate as they had one of the dullest summers on record.
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1 hour ago, Harry233 said:
I recorded -18.0.C in February 2021. That even beat December 2010’s record which was -17.8.C and that held a record in Perth since February 1956 I believe. Definitely think Scotland got hit a lot worse that February.
Yes Scotland did have a pretty cold winter in 20-21, can recall Edinburgh dipping to -14C in February with deep snow. Braemar recorded -23C which was the coldest February temperature since 1955 I believe. Definitely one of the better winters of the 21st Century for Scotland.. too bad the low minima didn't make it's way down to England.
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Some recent examples in the last 10 years;
December 2014 - December 2015
September 2015 - September 2016
February 2017 - February 2018
February 2018 - February 2019
June 2018 - June 2019
April 2020 - April 2021
May 2020 - May 2021
July 2022 - July 2023
September 2022 - September 2023
December 2022 - December 2023
Worryingly Wet & Worryingly Sunless
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
LetItSnow!
An interesting stat for sure. Who knows, will this year break the 121 year streak? We'd only need an April cooler than 7.8C which is manageable. April 2016 and 21 recent examples.