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Kasim Awan

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Everything posted by Kasim Awan

  1. Kasim Awan
    Significant streamer activity looking increasingly likely Monday night / Tuesday -9/-10C air yields a snow line of 25-75m asl with wind direction and instability placement optimal for 2-14cm North Kent with scattered 2-8+cm Essex into Sussex. As the core of instability pushes westwards, an upper level westwards movement of any formed streamers is likely later on Monday increasing potential for scattered accumulations acrosss much of central Southern England.
  2. Kasim Awan
    My 5050 was in reference to my own assessment of probabilities as opposed to what was shown on the GEFS12Z. The GEFS is more 70/30 for proper cold / faux cold. That is an equal chance of a potent ne cold spell and faux cold with the coldest air being shunted east. I think this is fair given the output.
  3. Kasim Awan
    In order of significance what's happening over the UK is first when cold spell sets in. Nhp then is not as relevant.
  4. Kasim Awan
    Not so relevant for the UK fine details around the UK more significant than the nhp when the cold is in.
  5. Kasim Awan
    Yes that is correct, afterwards it's a close balance probably 5050 between a potent ne blast and a diluted faux cold spell. Both of these have snow chances.
  6. Kasim Awan
  7. Kasim Awan
    If Ireland is broadly mild and wet it'll take some exceptional synoptics to produce cold in the UK. Don't take this post out of context I am merely referring to the synoptic pattern forecast in his post.
  8. Kasim Awan
    GEFS12Z to me looked to be 5050 on the potent cold northeasterly. Atleast 12 or so backed the ECM if not milder.
  9. Kasim Awan
    Nothing further than 144h out is set in stone. ECM and GFS solutions both possible. ECM is messy and not particularly cold.
  10. Kasim Awan
    It needs to push far enough east so that the western flank of it can join with the north easterly winds pushing south from the Arctic, otherwise it will act as resistance against the cold push.
  11. Kasim Awan
    Big wobble! Gets there though.
  12. Kasim Awan
    ICON 18z would produce several cm 2-8cm Kent Sussex into East London Monday/Tuesday with more widespread flurries further North.
  13. Kasim Awan
    ECM days 9/10 good for longevity still colder than average with slow SW flow and strong NE flow upper atmosphere.
  14. Kasim Awan
    To you too sending energy from the weather gods
  15. Kasim Awan
    Euro high causing issues with cold advection here.
  16. Kasim Awan
    Ok so we have low pressure menacing to the SW at 192h if we can connect it to the cold low to our NE then 216 and 240 will be incredible. If not then they will be humbling.
  17. Kasim Awan
    Hi guys it went meh another operation next week then hopefully a steady recovery
  18. Kasim Awan
    The chance of a potent NE blast is a bit lower now :).
  19. Kasim Awan
    February 2021.
  20. Kasim Awan
    It's so borderline could go either way.
  21. Kasim Awan
    I'm now of the notion that this time round even if things drift North the Atlantic is looking very weak so any westerly push likely to be temporary and more likely just be indicative of descending phase in amplification cycles. Again not discounting a December 2021 / 2022 style backtrack but think the odds are a bit lower than these occassions.
  22. Kasim Awan
    We have to identify negatives where due however to me there are few negatives on the GFS very wedgey Atlantic and lows moving southwards. This combined with the blocking signal puts us in a very strong place. Again I do not think black and white so I still acknowledge the potential negatives.
  23. Kasim Awan
    Ofcourse there are risks and concerns which I am blue in the face from highlighting lol. However on balance the consistency for such incredible synoptics is quite amazing.
  24. Kasim Awan
    So am I but we need to be fair and highlight the positives aswell.
  25. Kasim Awan
    I am starting to think that the Azores low is a good thing as once the PV pushes South it will link the two systems creating a NE flow from Russia to the Azores islands.
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