Kasim Awan

GFS control at 170h not far off bringing in a mild south westerly.

It is ok outside of 270 hours which suggests that the models are underestimating the strength of the Azores high in earlier time frames. I think this watering down of charts is likely to continue as modelled cold synoptics come under the time frame of more accurate NWP resolution of the Azores high hence watering down cold.

The issue is it has moved North from the 18Z and is close to bringing up a South Westerly flow.

This is not good.

Have to say very good consistency regarding the next chance.

GFS is completely on it's own. Around a 70% chance it will backtrack to the ECM/UKMO in the next couple of days. Around a 30% chance of ECM/UKMO tracking towards GFS. South Westerlies not far away on the GFS.

We're only getting an Azores/UK high from this but we may have another go around the 15th.

ICON sinks the high so right now I expect GFS to follow and ECM after. Initial easterly almost out of the question.

Getting there now but not liking the delays.

May struggle on this run too much high pressure in the Meditteranean.

Initially 168H-192H is slightly less optimal upstream but quick progression expected 192H-240H.

I agree with all this.

The issue with the mid month retrogression is the modelled extent of the UK high. With it so large the retrogression signal may not be enough to detatch it from the Hadley cell. Another issue with this is the potential for the cold shot to slide east of the UK with the UK high staying relatively fixed.

This is hyperbolic as what we see completely contradicts this assumption.

Chalk and cheese really with the undercut. Again the energy could not be shunted south east. Could still change but less likely now. This is also a concern going forward and is why personally I'm not 100% on 15th/16th etc either though it is the next chance. This post may seem contradictory to what I posted 5 minutes ago, but this post does not contradict it as I have not stated the easterly is not an option here.

It's still a possible solution but yes it has become marginalised.

Convective easterly still well and truly an option imo - only takes an adjustment a few miles North and we know how volatile the delicacies associated with these patterns can be.

I'm just sharing my honest concerns which are genuine and I believe grounded concerns. Do not take this as me discounting the potential, I am simply highlighting obstacles which we need to avoid. We can't always be so one sided and deny the presence of concerning synoptic mechanisms which may make the cold spell less potent. These are also the factors which could enhance the cold spell so it's important we recognise them. I think a cold spell is a certainty now. However I do not use some of the passive aggressive language which has been aimed at me recently to any other poster in here with a different view. I am quite shocked at how some people have used degrading language towards people with a different perspective. And even this morning over my analysis of one model run and using that against me to suggest I was predicting 20cm of snow.

I don't feel welcome in here anymore. Ciao.

I have no concerns regarding this cold potential. The high latitude is not a concern nor is a west based tendency during the second retrogression.

I am concerned by the lack of low pressure over Iberia this area is key and without it energy will be sent to the wrong places and deflect cold fron the UK. Again more of a concern than a definite. I don't think the idea of it being a concern is in FL territory the lack of troughing into Southern Europe has been form horse for several runs. Just my opinion :).

It is a big concern especially combined with the relatively high pressure over the med. It's finely balanced.

The concerns wont be gone for a long time.

And a west based -NAO. Both are big concerns.

I don't like the tendency for the high to link with the Mediterranean high.