Kasim Awan

Arpege South.

This is another very finely balanced setup in terms of snow chances. Slight adjustments could put many into significant snowfall risk however the overall trend recently has been a shift North.

Anthony Burden At 300 hours.. means nothing at all really.

CoventryWeather I suggest looking back over the output. Definite support for strong Iberian heights.

Lukesluckybunch No easterly on the 06Z yet.

BLAST FROM THE PAST Just this frame.

These sorts of patterns produce snow to northern hills then sleety showers elsewhere, then a brief high with cold before a return to westerly conditions. It would take a fair bit of shuffling now to really increase snow chances away from the North and I question how likely this is given the recent trend for a bigger low.

Ali1977 Yeah it improved the issue with the setup shown is it wouldn't take much to push the low North and keep the colder air North of the UK before pushing in moderated cold air on a mostly dry flow. This is a real possibility.

LukesluckybunchAt face value nothing good about day 10 west based -NAO and strong Iberian high.

Another dry but cold type spell is on the cards now. Front goes North and dry Northerly followed by a dry high pressure etc looks very possible at present.

Increasing chance now that the initial easterly and snow producing front will be confined to Northern areas due to the effects of a fairly stubborn Iberian high early on which causes more of a dartboard low which spreads the front out further North.

GFS control probably produces over 75cm of level snow over the Midlands next weekend.

nick sussex The GFS/ECM have it as more of a cold front over the Atlantic with an occlusion over Scotland.

I am slightly more optimistic of 9th February onwards. Good agreement for heights to lower over Iberia now with an unstable flow circulating around the UK, this one does look potentially more optimal for precipitation than the January cold spell. Again usual caveats apply. One positive is that the synoptics shown for the upcoming chance are a lot more realistic, and therefore less likely to be subject to massive changes, which was the case on the run up to January's chance. A more achievable level of wintry weather set out here.

chris55 Look at the uppers into Spain / France. If the Iberian high was further South the cold spell would have been more severe.

I am perplexed by the lack of synoptic thinking here. The cold easterly solution shown is very unlikely. A temporary easterly in Northern areas possible but the rate of cyclogenesis as the Iberian high stalls lows out to our West is very evident. Model latency will not pick up on this effect until nearer the time.

blizzard81 The main cold push was deflectd North by the Iberian high. What materialised was a colder than average week with high pressure to the South deflecting the convective, snowy easterlies away from the UK. It took an exceptional amount of northern blocking and background signalling to produce that due to the Iberian high. The Iberian high will certainly be another issue in the next chance, leading to a high risk of a west based -NAO or a situation like January where the northern blocking is weakened and the main easterly flow pushed north. This time round the signal for northern blocking is a lot less so a repeat of January is way up there with the most unlikely scenarios at present.

Steady on here because like in the past few weeks we've seen corrections North of the pattern as it comes into the reliable time frame. This is due to models underestimating the strength of the Iberian high in the extended range. As it comes into the reliable the models pick up correctly on the strength and the pattern is pushed North. So we're looking at low likelihood here at present.

@Daniel* Strong signal? You mean a strong signal from one run. That isn't a strong signal overall.

@Blessed Weather The risk of substantial cold is now very low. Looking at the models there is nothing to support substantial cold.

@SLEETY I scrapped this Winter a long time ago (for anything major). Yeah Spring often delivers here.

Yeah a very strong Iberian high on model output clearly deflecting away any northerly pushes in the next 10 days.

@I remember Atlantic 252 I feel like people only use the ignore function to announce they are ignoring others to make themselves seem superior lol. (Not you btw!!)

They are getting significantly milder, this really isn’t up for debate.

Stonking Bartlett on this run.