Kasim Awan

You'll be fine. We aren't looking at disruptive levels of snow here.

We're looking at a 60% chance of a batch of light to moderate snow showers tomorrow night only lasting an hour so 1cm in a few places.

One set of runs? It's not like the mild runs are in isolation. All the runs show a lack of high pressure situated in a position conducive to cold in the UK.

As good as all the "troughs popping up everywhere" ;).

What I think we’re seeing here is support for a large Bartlett / Iberian high and the models combining this with the amplification signal in around 10-14 days. This combination can lead to exceptionally mild but drier conditions such as February 2019. I don’t see any signal for convincing enough amplification that will overcome the strong zonal flow so for me this is most likely into early February. Saying that El Niño winters often improve towards the end of the winter so later in February / March does hold some potential but we need to reduce zonal winds significantly to overcome the Bartlett signal.

I think there will be some showers around on Thursday evening just not too significant probably 1-2mm of accumulation so another light covering possible in the West of the region.

Thursday / Friday at this stage looks like nothing much just odd flurry.

That is very bizzare.

468m Macclesfield forest area.

Temperature has just reached 0C now.

Thursday looking less active now snow wise so this may be our lot.

Anyone got rain? Just out of interest.

Atleast he's board.

A secondary streamer has now formed on the peripheral section of the trough which has more widespread potential than the streamer which has just occured. An additional 2-8cm is likely widely across Merseyside, Lancashire and Greater Manchester in the next 3 hours. A steady rise in dew points along the coast will take place in the coming hours. And wind speeds increase towards midday areas west of the M6 will see a rise to 1C dew point. Through the afternoon this will spread eastwards towards the 120m contour. During mid morning heavy and significant snowfall will affect Cumbria, 1-5cm widely away from the coast. This then extending into North Yorkshire and northern Lancashire where mixed precipitation is likely below 200m in the West and below 100m-150m over and to the East of the Pennines. Accumulations of 25-35cm are possible above 250m locally in these areas. A more widespread 10-15cm above 200m. 5-8cm between 100m-150m and 250m. This will be a confined streamer forming over central northern Lancashire and just to the north of Bradford. Little accumulation outside of it. A southwards shift of the front can be expected through the afternoon producing a period of moderate snow over the central southern Pennines 2-7cm widely. Perhaps 1-2cm down to 200m on the west and 100m on the east of the Pennine area. Temporary accumulations east of the m6 are possible but this is uncertain.

Thanks I’m pretty happy with my assessment before I think it was alright lol. 1cm here.

So when do you think it’ll start snowing properly in your area?

Radar doesn't look too great now. Snow is rubbish here.

Steady on... ❄

Crosby now at 3C, dewpoint 0C. Radar suggesting a mix possible on the coast. @Backtrack yes the trough is moving fairly fast and it's probably a negative thing.

Radar looks a bit rubbish to me. Do you think the main serving is still later on?

Liverpool next hour 2-3cm.

That's the most likely scenario, both more and less snow is possible

Ok slow moving hefty batch of showers should form over the Wirral around 3/4am and move in towards Manchester, before slowly shunting North through the morning. Widely 1-6cm with a localised 8cm+ possible perhaps along the Mersey or towards central Manchester. Amounts 1-2cm into central Cheshire though uncertain. Into the day a band of heavy snow will affect Cumbria producing 2-5cm to lower levels and similar into the Yorkshire Dales / North Lancashire before snow will become restricted to 250m+ and 15miles inland down to 150m over the Pennines. 20-35cm possible over higher ground in the Western Yorkshire Dales / 10-15cm locally North East Lancashire. A 2-7cm covering likely for western parts of West Yorkshire such as Bradford, locally more above 250m. Limited amounts east of Leeds city. This then moves South giving lower levels an hour or two of sleet / wet snow tomorrow night. Leeds Bradford airport closure risk 60%. Manchester 40%. Liverpool 30%.

Yes definitey higher parts around Hawes and Tan hill inn could see 20-30cm tomorrow.

Yes tomorrow afternoon is a tight snow line around 250m over central north Lancashire here 20cm+ possible.