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Kasim Awan

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Everything posted by Kasim Awan

  1. Kasim Awan
    I'm not buying into anything just saying it's possible. It's mid winter it's possible every year, though probably lower this year compared to most.
  2. Kasim Awan
    @Met4Cast I do think another bout of amplification is possible. Often cold snaps tend to repeat synoptically around 3-5 weeks after. I can think of countless examples. So from a predictive statistics perspective I think a northerly spell is very possible into February at some point. Probably watered down by the strong signal for Iberian heights though.
  3. Kasim Awan
    I don't agree with the posts writing off February. Give it time there is a chance of another cold spell.
  4. Kasim Awan
    Interestingly winds here are a lot lighter than Isha. Goes to show how orographic Isha was.
  5. Kasim Awan
    In terms of warnings the only issue for me was the late red warning which made no sense because high resolution output agreed on the 90mph+ swathe a lot earlier. There was no lower confidence 24 hours earlier.
  6. Kasim Awan
    This storm due to the wind direction was very orographically and topographically modulated which is why away from Glasgow area, areas affected by the sting jet and and low elevation parts of Northern Ireland, low level gusts rarely increased above 55mph. There are a few reasons for this. First is wind direction, southwesterlies reduce the >850mb vorticity over the West Midlands, Cheshire, greater Manchester, Sheffield and Leeds area. Manchester airport rarely gusted above 40mph, Leeds rarely above 50mph which is a lot lower than predicted. This direction also increases gusts over high ground and on the east coast due to the relative magnitude of atmospheric wavelengths at higher wind speeds. Basically stronger 700mb mean winds increase the wavelength for orographic modulation meaning effects of wind strengthening were felt further east so along the coast as opposed to central eastern areas. Higher ground areas though still experience usual strengthening with altitude plus acceleration. This is why 100mph was recorded at 500m asl Yorkshire and over 70mph on the east coast. The sting jet over Northern Ireland and Scotland was there but fairly widespread and it absorbed a significant amount of the pressure differential potential therefore reducing wind gusts over England. 106mph in Orkney indicative of a big absorption. These mechanisms both worked to reduce gusts over low level England. The orographic effects influential over northern England and the differential absorption further south.
  7. Kasim Awan
    Not if you look at it this way. 55mph typical for inland areas vs 70mph had it further upgraded. The differences are noteable when comparing output from 24 hours ago.
  8. Kasim Awan
    I think wind speeds have reduced a fair bit for inland central / southern England, 5-8mph. I know this is an unpopular statement however if you compare the last few icon wrf harmonie charts it's quite clear. Still talking 55-65mph for a short time with 70mph locally in squalls.
  9. Kasim Awan
    Harmonie gusts are around 5mph lower for central England than 06z. Will be interesting to see the gusts across low level central England later.
  10. Kasim Awan
    Dependant on reactivity in Exeter I think the only way a red would be achieved given the low likelihood of high impact is if observations noted a sting jet with 90mph+ surface gusts. That should push up likelihood of high impact into high zone.
  11. Kasim Awan
    Caenarfon airport now 81mph - likely benefiting from some downslope acceleration still significant for lower levels.
  12. Kasim Awan
    The northwards push through England was evident on icon runs probably a 10mph reduction through England. Likely associated with the sting jet absorbing some of the pressure differential as this increases winds over Scotland. All very normal slight adjustments. Still looking at 55-70mph through inland central southern England considering the icon is now at the lower end of projections. The sting jet is probably slightly more likely than not. Been years since a proper one.
  13. Kasim Awan
    Oh come on the banter isn't that good.
  14. Kasim Awan
    Very rare to see that. The magnitude and extent of this storm is probably a one in 6+ year event.
  15. Kasim Awan
    Your post is theorerically correct however ignores the fact that deep cyclogenesis is unlikely at 1030mb etc. Have you ever seen a 50mph average wind at 1030mb? Probably not, because gradients tent to reduce at higher pressure.
  16. Kasim Awan
    I wont bother again now.
  17. Kasim Awan
    After watching every single UK severe weather event with close detail since around 2010 I can say this with reasonable confidence.
  18. Kasim Awan
    Your post shows a lack of attention to detail. The Iberian heights can reduce winds over England because the gradient at higher pressures produces less severe winds. Not once did I say 5mph wasn't minor. It is minor but the observation that forecast pressure has increased over England is correct. A northwards push in Iberian heights would only increase pressure if the storm met it with an equal force from the southwards movement, however this storm is moving north east so any northwards push in high heights would result in a northwards push of the pressure gradient rather than a tightening of it if the storm was moving southwards such as in this example.
  19. Kasim Awan
    That is wrong. This is a deepening low so higher pressure would push the more severe gusts north.
  20. Kasim Awan
    How is high resolution output on a storm irrelevant to a thread about that storm? Additionally did I once say the spell would not be severe or stormy - just that we have seen slight 5mph downgrades in the past 36 hours which is typical of strong storms with high wind speeds. Exactly, it is a nonsense that my post is somehow stating the storm will be less severe. Ok fine if quantitative correct analysis is unwanted, good day!
  21. Kasim Awan
    Ukv caught up earlier on the downgrade though. ICON/WRF have been catching up since that point.
  22. Kasim Awan
    Pretty much for the entire storm, but in particular central and southern England. It has been downgrading since Friday. To do with increases in the strength of the Iberian high.
  23. Kasim Awan
    ICON pushes wind gusts down by 5mph.
  24. Kasim Awan
    I've just had 51mph.
  25. Kasim Awan
    Strangely the area excluded from amber is the area I would've upgraded first this morning. The WRF has a batch of 40mph average winds / 70mph gusts into this area.
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