Hi all, Long term lurker, but decided to jump on board this year as feels and certainly looks different in terms of the outputs from the models so couldn’t resist. Thanks for everyone’s contribution still learning and some of the learning that I have done is down to you guys. Ta Very much!
Just on the above, I too can not trust these forecasted temps last night is a prime example according to forecast should have been -1 it is currently -4.2 with a dewpoint of -5.4. Not what I expected.
Off the back of this I a have question, how does this effect the models? In 2 hours time the temperature in my locale should be 3 degrees, now, for my learning eyes that’s quite a temperature swing in a very short amount of time. The forecast also suggests a rain shower during this time period those figures don’t look marginal and I’m yet to see any background signs that will help push these temperatures up so quickly. So if precipitation falls as snow when a model has predicted rain how does this effect surface temperatures, dew-points, cooling/warming and any other background signals? I know this has happened already across different regions so is something I would like to look into in relation to the accuracy of model output. Thanks again!