[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

2 hours ago, Paul said:

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

Just to add that the matrix is not posted with the TV forecast which is probably the main way that people hear about the warning. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

29 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I genuinely wonder just how all the models got it so wrong? Info, observations etc fed in, output generated on basis of said info and yet, utterly, hopelessly wrong. Even forecasts a couple days out seldom right. I still don’t understand the faith in them, at all. 

Models are models so they are just running through various scenarios. Unfortunately it was hyped up by wishful thinking and the few doubters were cast aside. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Countryfile forecast  gives 2 fingers to the South this week. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

But but but get the cold in first.......

[Moans, ramps and banter]

21 minutes ago, Snowandrocks said:

Happy enough with how this spell is going so far - it's been snowing for most of the day with more fresh snow forecast everyday at least until Thursday. 

This idiot is seemingly enjoying things too! 

 

Thanks for the pics and enjoy. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

For sale, snow shovel, 14 years old and never used. Almost mint condition bar the cobwebs. No sensible offer refused. Delivery, eventually, by Royal Mail. 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

6 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Well, they supposedly did suggest massive blocking throughout winter and a 2010/2012 style redux. Instead we've ended up with a near record mild December and near average January at best.

True enough! Now, about that bridge.....

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

4 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

If you believe the long range forecasts, it sounds like summer isn't going to be particularly spectacular either, with "average" conditions.

If you believe long range forecasts after what we've just been through then I have a bridge to sell to you!!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

6 minutes ago, johncam said:

Latest Met has some wet snow then sleet for us Tuesday , that's looking like it for this cold spell that we have been chasing for ever it seems , very disappointing to be honest 

Join the club! Bitterly disappointed but used to it by now.

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

5 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:

Nope Alton Staffordshire.

Ah I made that mistake too, I thought you were in Hampshire! Well I think that your chance of seeing snow in Staffordshire is higher than Hampshire this week. 

[UK winters: are they getting colder?]

Other than the far North of Scotland I'd say our winters are definitely getting milder. Probably past the tipping point as our climate has changed.

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

34 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Not a great update.

That's putting it mildly, if you'll pardon the pun!

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

Just watched the BBC forecast for the week ahead. Crap regarding snow here. Might as well chop up the sledge for firewood! Bone dry here, of course wet and mild the following week. Just hate our lousy climate.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

3 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

And that's the problem we have, southern people thinking we are good for snow. Teesside area is ridiculous. 

End of the day it's just weather! We could always move to a more favorable location but I'm not that desperate!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

4 minutes ago, Paul said:

The snow in the South last week was actually the equivalent - sea effect snow. We can get that sort of thing here

 

Sea Effect Snow - the UK version of Lake Effect snow. Very cold air across the North Sea

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Very cold easterly flow, found when a high pressure sits over Scandinavia and brings air to the UK from Siberia. If conditions are right...

 

Had the same in Boston USA in March 1992. Bright sunny day when we climbed the Bunker Hill monument, 2 inches of snow when we reached the bottom. Would love a US climate, Great Lakes would suit me perfectly!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah this looked the case a few days ago aswell was clear to see the direction of travel.

In my years as an amateur and otherwise, I have never seen such promise result in so little for the majority of the UK.

I'm throwing in the big snow towel.

Apologies for the moaning post models but I think we all feel the same.

Onto the next chase. 

Kasim, don't apologise. You have called it correctly as far as I can read. It may not be what we want to read sometimes but your posts are soberingly honest. Keep it up please. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

22 hours ago, shawty1984 said:

I mean, it goes without saying that the further south you go the warmer its going to be, but it's such a wild statement it's pointless imo. I live in the North East of England and its pathetic where I live too. Its not just a southern thing.

I always thought that the North East was good for snow? 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 hour ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps

Bit of heartache at the moment. Seems like this chase has gone in for ever but I guess now it’s time for me to hang my hat on this one. Next week may be cold but dry not exactly what us coldies have been chasing for. I am sorry for sounding downbeat but  I am glad  I did not have my expectations that high.

Still plenty of winter left but what is beginning to ring in my mind now is that February will come and go then we will be looking down the barrrell of spring on the horizon. I know many will say things can change and it’s only the weather yes I agree with that and maybe down the line we may well get out winter still. However the most annoying thing is we put our heart so much into chasing cold for snow on our island but many of times we are left disappointed.

The waiting will still go on such are us coldies.

take care all 

regards 

The hunt for snow goes on. All the fabulous charts of the past few weeks have come to nowt. Now all we need to do is await another rambling from the lady in Portugal who manages to make Sir Humphrey sound like the Artful Dodger! 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean is very nice!!!looks like ukmo at 168 hours!!!!!

OK so it's supposed to be turning cold from this Sunday?! So why isn't that shown in the temperatures on the BBC website? Even met office is slightly colder than BBC. Confused.com 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

I wished I wouldn't have said anything about the met insider information now

Let's be honest here if it's solid there may be a little alteration too the 1st part of the update.. but I very much doubt the 2nd part would be altered at all! Not unless the likes of Glosea have had a massive climbdown overnight.

And keep in mind how often have we had people in the past say they've got a friend at Dominoes who knows a council figure for the gritting service, and they've been told to stock up big time on grit this year

And mogreps does look cold out till next weekend and let's be honest so much is subject to change at this range as we've seen with the models over the last several days!

But I tell you what if this bloke is lying he's being unfollowed

Never give up, Matt!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, Gadje said:

You called what. Something that hasn't happened yet?

Nope I'd prefer to proceed with enthusiasm rather than negativity and doom as this is a hobby.  As an adult I think I handle the disappointment of the weather not going the way I wanted and if it snows its all been good.

Matthew, I have family in Alton. Good altitude and normally do well if there is any snow about. Wait and see and you may be pleasantly surprised. No need for doom and gloom just yet.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, BlizzardOfoz said:

Anyone else don't like Meteo..Bring back Metoffice .

Ditto that thought!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

19 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

With respect  it's not just one run, it's two models showing a less than desirable outcome with a return  of a westerly influence.  Granted  the GFS might lead to a dumping for some.  I now need to take this opportunity to apologise to this forum. I committed the cardinal sin by telling a neighbour to get ready for the snow. I have my running shoes on....

Ah thanks, you're to blame!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG this is getting very exciting .

What a lovely upgrade on the ECM 06 hrs run .

We see that nuisance high lobe over France suppressed and the shortwave looks like it will clear before the Atlantic low gets too close .

 

If you're happy then I'm very very happy!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

He’s using the 00z ec op

would never have happened when the met office ran the show! 

I wish the beeb would go back to the met office.