[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Daily Express hasn't mentioned anything about the weather yet which I take as a positive omen!

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

13 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

That in laws comment

I call mine the outlaws!

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, James Maidstone said:

Only thing I would say to this was I was surprised how quickly the North Sea cooled down last year with only a week or so of cold temps

But surely with lake or ocean effect snow you require cold wind over warmer water?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Abit like feb 78 near me in Dorset Ali1977

Beautiful pictures. The dream lives on!

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Looking forward to an upgrade from Exeter today.

Certainly would expect more weighting to wintry hazards next week.

Fingers crossed the 12z runs continue the theme.

Yes  Exeter is key in my book.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Can people remember the biggest cold fail in the models ie when an expected cold spell failed to materialise?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wow what a day . 

Nothing like the drama of a trigger shortwave .

I think because it’s quite a complex situation with that shortwave and the other shown to the ne we’re going to need to see those modeled within T72hrs .

Overall though some really encouraging outputs for coldies . 

I think that your flight will be delayed for deicing!

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Tremendous rubs this morning.

EC 00Z is beautiful  

I've not had any rubs this morning!

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

3 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Anyone had a long fetched cold easterly to end autumn for 2023 UK weather bingo card

On this chart is Northern Scandinavia and Scotland showing as mild?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Regardless of what weather we get this winter I'm just appreciative of this forum. Good job, netweather thanks. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

I hope the mods don't mind this but I would like to share something personal - After 8 years battling dementia, my sweet loving mum passed away last night. Her suffering is now at an end and she is at peace ❤❤❤ xxx

Condolences to you. May she rest in peace. 

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

24 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

CFS which stands for Can't Forecast Snow is showing on it's 4 most recent 1 monthly runs that there's quite a good chance of cold on this day with a snow chance quite possible

00z

00z shows a nice easterly flow but the uppers aren't anything special so a bit of a question mark here but maybe things could firm up a bit more or the cold could upgrade before then.

06z

06z here shows another easterly so we are at 50% chance of an easterly on this day already but snow chances here probably almost zero as it looks like a dry easterly. Maybe some frost and ice for you here to cancel the day.

12z

12z is the zonal option here of the 4 we have so if you need an excuse to get out of it then you could day it's raining too much or you could claim that you have been flooded and can't come.

18z

18z is probably the option you would want to bank on to cancel this trip. It looks the snowiest of the 4 options available.

Thanks for all the replies. 

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

19 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

They don’t.. there is simply too much choas in our atmosphere that anything beyond 3 weeks is well articulated (on occasion) therory… usually with a heap of ifs / buts and maybe….. I guess as with most things it’s all a learning journey and maybe one day in the distant future we might crack long term forecasting but for now it’s educated trail and error to help us towards understanding long term forecasting.

What are the chances of snow on 3rd December to get me out of driving to my aunt's in Hampshire for lunch? She's not the best chef unfortunately. 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Hi,  we have snow already and more expected later in the week. I will post pictures in the Austrian Thread when we get the next top up. See you from Gatwick. I lived in Charlwood when I worked at LGW back in the 80s !

C

Appreciate that thanks. I also worked at Lgw until covid killed it.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Evening all. The Polar Jet Stream out to this weekend continues  to show a more southerly track than normal with the British Isles on the colder side. Several models have shown developments of  slider low in the vicinity of Southern Britain to move towards the Alps during Sunday as indicated on the chart below. Beyond that the models still ebbing and flowing with a continuation of the prolonged unsettled spell against some form of build in high pressure being more influential to the forecast for Mid - month.  I have a feeling that a rather colder scenario getting established by then. This is mostly based on a continuation of the more southerly tracking jet shown by the models.

C

Carinthian, looking forward to your snowy pictures this season. Thanks. 

[Storm Ciarán]

50 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

Poor dentist ,who did he offend

No doubt he / she tried to mug you off with a visit to the hygienist. Typical money extortion scheme!

[Storm Ciarán]

Regardless of the final track of the storm I just think it's impressive that the development was spotted days ago by the Met Office. 

[Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts]

Can I add my voice to those thinking that we will finally see some proper winter weather this season. It definitely feels like something is brewing, maybe wishful thinking but I don't believe so. As ever time will tell but I'm calling it now, this winter will be Dickensian! On a separate note with the possibility of violent storms this week please ensure that your home insurance is up to date. 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

11 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

GFS continued runs in fantasy island with winter return and possibly colder with more snow 

than previous U.K. spell.Beginning to raise eyebrows will March roar in,after we all thought spring 

was coming.very keen eye on GFS to see if it continues with this scenario.

Would it be possible to have less snow?! 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Truly incredible ECM 12z op..more like summer than late winter, however, I saw a flock of seagulls flying over my house this afternoon which could be an omen of a sudden model flip in a few days time!

I have seen a lot of seagulls around here recently too. Not sure what that indicates lol. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Pretty disappointing all in all. Decent snow for only a few. Just cold with blowing dandruff. Overhyped event. Never known such poor results from an Easterly. No doubt the same for most areas. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Heavy snow here right now, tyre tracks and footprints filled in last 30 minutes or so

You have motor vehicles in Essex?!! 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Just wanted to comment on how impressed I am with this website. Has kept up brilliantly with the huge volume of traffic, especially in the regional threads. Job well done. 

[February cold spell discussion and chat]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

The Met Office are forecasting zero ice days here. Very underwhelming.

Just a matter of being patient and wait for the showers to get going over the next few days. I believe that you will be pleasantly surprised. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

2 minutes ago, GSP said:

Took me back a bit when Darren Bett said the word blizzards near the SE and EA coast on Sunday.

Bet that hurt him?