SP1986

I have a few palm trees. I also have guava plants, bananas and Citrus. It's like Florida down here!* *If florida was in the north Atlantic. Alas I'm not actually joking when I say we grow palm trees here in Wirral. This is in New Brighton.

That reminds me I have to tend to my banana plants!

Perhaps but for not experience trumps expectation. It is a case of nowcasting really

I do think we'll get more snow than we think.. even here in the west. But it stands to reason that the further west you are or the closer you are to a rainshadow, the less we will get

Daniel Corbett is brilliant.. I think he forecasts in NZ still. He has a fan group on Facebook

Some current model facts to start the morning The models have generally, up to this point modelled some kind of breakdown. The cold spell however, has not started yet. There is a fair amount of snow modelled in at this stage which should please the masses. There is no widespread evidence for an undercut yet.. but that doesn't mean it won't feature in future runs. This is modelled as probably the coldest spell for about 3 years and possibly the snowiest spell for 8 years.

Possibly because back a long while ago when the GFS was known as the AVN or MRF there were a lot less models available so those that read models, it's all they knew back then and people tend to mainly stick with what they know. That's my explanation anyway

10.9cm cumulative here, but to be honest, given day time temperatures are going to rise on some days above 0C there may be some melting, though very minimal if it happens, along with sun melt. so the maximum on the ground at any one time will probably be closer to 4-5cm if it happens.

I would imagine so, we'll keep on watching. I think showers will make it across but may weaken a lot, but that doesn't mean they wont be useful. (that's pretty what most of the precipitation maps show anyway)

Exactly, I think trying to surmise what will happen up here is a waiting game.. and probably will be a nowcasting situation. Where the showers are coming from, the intensity, the trajectory, who will get them, who will miss out, will they make it over the Pennines in any great amount? etc etc etc. All unknown. What is known, is that the SE contingent and the model thread are pooping themselves.... because there is a genuine chance it will go awry for them. But that won't change much for us to be honest.

The GFS 12z might have been considered poor by some members of another regional thread, but the cold air is definitely more entrenched on the GFS 12z than on that FAX chart. Compare decameter readings from the above FAX chart for the same time frame on the GFS output. ok so technically not a huge amount of difference but we do live in a questionable region when it comes to snow. Still in reality it shouldn't be so much of a problem here, should we get the precipitation required. However if you venture into the model thread on Saturday, you might want to leave very quickly if the FAX is correct.

That's interesting, everything further south looks incredible marginal on that FAX chart. Even the 528 DAM zone is north of most of the NW at that point. I would have thought the cold air would be thoroughly entrenched everywhere by that point (12pm Sunday).

I recall a few instances of showery easterlies in my time.. maybe 2007-8? My recollection however was that often they missed the Wirral, dying out or going north of here, many times, if the showery activity wasn't full on. Merseyside did ok though in the north. Mind you were in different times, and not exactly the same setup as that so it'll be interesting to see if those showers do make it across.

At this point I reckon so. Could change of course, but I've been following events unfold in the Netherlands forecast as well, and in general, the milder air seems to have inched northwards there, whilst the precipitation band has moved south. So if I take anything from that, I don't necessarily expect the low to be further north.. however I do believe there is potential for a milder sector or some inrodes of milder air coming into the southern parts. For example the original trend showed Vlissingen in NL getting a lot of snow on Sunday, originally, but now it's definitely trending to rain. However! I think certainly north of the Thames it looks like snow at this stage. Yet it could all revert back southwards again on some runs! We will see!

in 2018 BFTE it was quite interesting. Despite the ground being very wet prior to it, the air was very very dry, and the ground dried out unbelievably quickly. When it came to warming up in April, the ground was a dust bowl. Amazing how fast moisture can get sucked out of the ground with a brisk, cold, low humidity easterly. Also I 'hate' to say it, but those guys in the far southeast.. they're getting rain off this. Kent will be slushy sleet and rain fest.

I'm going to go for 1cm here from dying eastwards showers. Also I'm going to say lowest minimum around -4C here which will be the lowest for 3 years.

It looks epic in the sea. Maybe a boat trip is in order

I was looking at a jetstream chart the other day and the forecast chart for Thursday was crazy because it had the (northern) subtropical jet and polar jet actually meeting up. No wonder there has been epic thunderstorms over Spain in the past week.

Aw no I'm ok I didnt have the virus (as of yet) Back to work after time off so didn't get much of a chance to be on. Still around waiting whether the most unwintry, wintry winter can deliver something soon

Anyone want to hazard a guess what happened here?

Thank you for the concern .. fingers crossed everyone stays safe and avoids the virus. Everyone in work has it it seems

@Day 10 I'm still around just been busy at work a bit. Somewhat surprised by the amber warning in the far East of the region. I guess even as far west as Manchester may see temporary snow cover.?

Arguably more accurate than the old models to be honest!

I'm going to give that one because that was a model that went defunct. The fact you remember that is impressive I forgot about that one actually

Here's a trivia question for all of you... Before the GFS became arguably one of the main models to look at for synoptic analysis, what was the main model used before then? You will have to go back to before 2004 to find this model as it went defunct about then and evolved into/was replaced by the GFS we know today..