SP1986

Mist is finally lifting here at 100m asl, sun starting to appear

I am starting to wonder if we are staring down the barrel of a notable winter. It is starting to remind me of 2010 somewhat, although Dec 2010 was a slower evolution to what is being shown currently. It all just screams 'locked in cold' scenario to me. Plus while this push of cold may not be as extreme as the models are currently showing, I feel there will be plenty of repeats through the coming month(s). Snowfields will make the significant difference.

Very interesting developments.. Its looking likely we will have a white Christmas as it stands. GFS ensembles are pretty much unaminous on that this morning (although control run is a wild outlier for warmth). I think the GFS is over egging the surface conditions to the extreme however even that withstanding, the first real chance of a white Christmas since 1994 here I believe.

sunny day today, inversion is probably settling at lower areas, as at the highest point of the peninsula it is 10C currently, whereas it is typically 8C elsewhere. It does look like the case for a cold easterly is building, but it is a long way off. The likelyhood is that there will be much frost and fog before that happens, so quite a wintry outlook in that sense. The continent will always get the coldest weather in these setups though I'm guessing northwest European continent will be milder than us due to the wind direction. Frosty christmas for us I reckon!

Mild and humid now and expected to stay that way for a few days.. Could be 15C here tomorrow if a foehn gets going. Currently 11C and dead calm

One of the interesting things I find, given that it's difficult to find any positives during prolonged wet, cool weather, is that in my own back yard, foehn effects might come into play if the wind takes on a southwesterly direction. Whilst it's unfortunate that there's no snow this December here, a foehn can be just as interesting as it can lead to large temperature differences in short distances. I recall one year when it was 14C here and just 7C in Manchester (circa 40 miles) due to a foehn setup.

That's a harsh insult.. he's not that bad surely.

rain has been relentless today. Although there has only been showers, technically, there has been no break in the showers all day, it's behaving like lake effect precipitation. Unfortunately I don't have rainfall figures but since 3am at least it's been none stop heavy, even sometimes torrential showers, and I think we may well be over 60mm for the last 12 hour period.. flooding is going to be quite a problem on the north of the peninsula I think.

I'm not sure it would be frosty to be honest. I can see it being cool, cloudy and quiet. It's not the worst thing in the world after all these storms. There will be a colder spell turning up around late December I think, when I think of these types of patterns from before. I think the high pressure forecast is quite extreme, and actually for coastal areas, it could bring some mild weather, day and night. Early spring if you will. From a personal point of view though, I'd much rather have 11C and sunshine in December than pouring rain and 5C.

Windy overnight into this morning (circa 50mph gusts max), lots of heavy showers and currently 6.2C... We've had a lot of rain the last few days.. An unreasonable amount to be honest.

No real wind here this time but extreme biblical rain has flooded the area in some parts.

First spots of rain falling. Doesn't appear to be snowing on the Fflintshire hills which I guess is not great news for anyone wanting snow below 350m?

Rain so far here, but not surprising in a westerly. Hail usually happens too, but not this evening. I'm quite surprised by the ice warning for here, as the winds will be notably westerly-south westerly all night I think? They're gusting now a little, and that doesn't generally lead to ice right on the coast here. Maybe they'll die off, and allow a ground frost, but there is not much chance of an air frost here with this direction of wind, unless it turns straight southerly.

Im guessing about 300m (1000ft)

Wind and rain

more flashes of lightning and intense hail showers would be welcome!

Nice little thunderstorm here.. Wasn't expecting that

Heavy rain now. Wirral with its hyper-mild snow free climate. Should be used to it now but it would be nice to see some snow once in a while!

Raining here now in Wirral moderate in intensity, already wet ground

I suspect that's the case, as looking at the radar it's got strange patterns to the precipitation which suggest that. We will see.

Minimum this morning 2.1C .. heading slowly. No snow last night, or rain for the matter.. I suspect it may have been snow given the dewpoint was below 0C at the coldest part of the night.. though then some cloud came in it did rise above 0C so maybe not. It's irrelevant as there doesn't appear to have been showers here. Currently 5C on the dot, and feeling really cold in the breeze but pleasant in the shelter in sunshine (which is surprisingly warm for December).

I wasn't expecting this wind tonight, was it even forecast really? getting about 50mph gusts which are probably causing havoc with the swaying trees!

fingers crossed.. as long as that wind doesn't have a sea fetch we should be in for something. the wind looks NWly for here however.. so about 50/50 chance. Quite an impressive northerly stretch on those isobars though!

What the storm did here in my local area

5C now... Proper heatwave going on