SP1986

I know its only 60 hours away, but the level of agreement on the track of the next possibly damaging storm for our region is actually quite impressive. However, I bet this one doesn't even get coverage at all.

That Monday storm looks as bad if not worse as this one for this area, if it continues on the same track and velocity. Showing 130kph (80mph) gusts just off the coast.

good man. In all seriousness though, there's no reason we won't get snow tomorrow, It might be a nowcast day. We might get a surprise to be fair.

you suggested snow for our region. You should well be embarrassed. Don't you know the 'North west code'?

Here in Wirral it was quite a benign affair til about 12-1pm, nothing much going on at all, and given that the peak wind was supposed to have been around that time, I basically drew the curtains on it so to speak. Well I shouldn't have as after 4pm there were huge gusts, I would say that were beyond 70mph, and numerous large cracks and bangs, where damage occurred. We will see, I guess, the damage for tomorrow.

well it turns out 1. you should never assume something is over, until it's over, and 2. Never trust the Metoffice app for timings (or any other model for that matter). Since 5pm it's been horrendous, with frequent 70+mph gusts, causing all sorts of damage, that you can hear very loudly.

Dying down a bit here now.. Certainly for my location it was nothing out of the ordinary, being coastal. No damage or uprooted trees either thankfully. Hopefully it will be the same for others too

Windspeeds starting to decrease markedly now. Id say here top gust was about 59mph nothing more than that

Windy but not out of the ordinary.. No damage from this one today thankfully

Supposed to be the peak of the storm now here but in reality its just a windy day, not much to be concerned about in this location

Still very calm here. I suspect when it starts it will be like a wall of wind

Dead calm almost right now... No suggestion that strong winds are nearby

Getting gusty now here.. Trees getting buffeted about.. So its coming in quite fast! However the obs apparently show it might be further south than forecast so the possibility that the forecast winds later may be much weaker than currently forecast. Maybe.. We will see

The lights just flickered which is interesting as it is not that windy yet....

Its quite ridiculous.. Lots of people on the storm demonstrating why people just need to take more responsibility in these situations instead of validating their own fears, that it may not be how they expect. The same extends to others too in general public. The warning is and has always been fine, it's exactly what it should be in the scenario so no complaints about the warning from me.

Wind gusts are picking up now along with the rain! It feels quite eerie actually. The hi-res models consistently want to bring 120-130kph (75 to 80mph) into the costal areas around midday.. Which mirrors last nights forecast TAF

Indeed, they must be expecting the system to reinforce that back edge feature which brings the strong westnorthwesterlies that has been showing over the past few days. The peak gusts will only last 30 minutes to an house tops, but any gusts near 75mph is causing damage. Also the mean wind of 51mph, itself could cause some significant damage. Essentially, if the TAF is correct, we could see mean winds that are on a par with last nights gusts! According to the beaufort scale, that's a 'strong gale', which equates to minor structural damage but then factor in the gusts and it's another story.

now now.. this is the northwest of England... you know the caveats here. 1. No exciting weather unless authorised by the south 2. Any interesting events will get caught in the great NW England filter and vaporised before your very eyes. 3. Snow is a legend, largely to be talked about in front of gradchildren, who will be amazed by its mythical, magical qualities despite never having seen it.

Liverpool airport TAF going for 65 knots maximum gust between 11am and 3pm tomorrow. That's 75mph TAF: EGGP 172303Z 1800/1824 15008KT 9999 SCT030 BECMG 1800/1803 15018G30KT TEMPO 1800/1813 7000 RA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 1801/1812 3000 +RA BKN005 BECMG 1807/1810 20025G35KT BECMG 1810/1812 28035G50KT TEMPO 1811/1815 28045G65KT TEMPO 1813/1822 7000 SHRA PROB30 TEMPO 1815/1821 3000 +SHRA SHRASN BKN008 BECMG 1817/1820 27030G40KT BECMG 1821/1824 26018G30KT Manchester airport TAF going for 60 knots maximum gust for the same time which is 69mph TAF: EGCC 172303Z 1800/1906 20005KT 9999 SCT030 BECMG 1800/1803 14015G25KT TEMPO 1800/1813 7000 RA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 1801/1812 3000 +RA BKN005 BECMG 1806/1809 20025G35KT BECMG 1809/1812 29035G50KT TEMPO 1811/1815 29045G60KT TEMPO 1814/1824 7000 SHRA -SHRASN BKN010 BECMG 1815/1818 29025G40KT PROB30 TEMPO 1815/1824 3000 +SHRASN SHSN BKN005 BECMG 1818/1821 27020G30KT BECMG 1903/1906 23008KT Manchester TAF talking of snow too later on, whilst Liverpool TAF going for sleet.

Storm Kyrill made everyone change their fences I think, since that storm, I haven't seen a single fence down. Plenty of trees biting the dust though. Eucalyptus trees are everywhere in our area, and they're very weak and shallow rooted so they snap like match sticks and fall over easily. Many of the trees from Arwen still haven't been cleared away yet.. it's like they are sitting monuments to a brave new world.

Yep, and Arwen caused quite a bit of damage, due to falling trees, so I'm guessing we can expect similar.

Ive done a look over quite a few models and the varying expected maximum gust strengths, and I'd estimate if we take an average of solutions, we're looking at a maximum gust of about 69mph on the coast tomorrow. That sounds about right to be fair. Also the average peak intenisty looks to be around 1.30-2.30pm. for our region

The winds back then were not as strong, and the storm was not as deep, if I remember, but maybe it'll be fine.. it might actually be Hoylake, Meols and Moreton that have issues when that straight NW comes through. Unfortunately I'm working tomorrow so I can't, but I have to walk home, and that walk coincides with the strongest peak of winds. I may take the beach route... stronger winds but less likely to have branch knock me unconscious.

we usually get away with most severe weather to be honest, so it's not surprising.

High tide is going to big issue in your part, remember those cars being smashed against the walls on the 5th Dec 2013?, I get the feeling it'll be much worse this time, as then whilst there was a storm, it didn't directly impact, and the worst winds were further south, but it will a similar setup overall. Unfortunately I think those nicely re-built walls on the promenade might get smashed up again. Morrisons under water I wonder?