SP1986

2.9C little bit of frost

One of those morning where the temperature is say 1C in one place and only a mile down the road it is 6C. Currently 5C, minimum last night was 4C with no frost, yet down the road and inland a bit it is frosty and 1C

I remember having a conversation over a decade ago about this, and the effect of the Greenland plateau on computer modelling. It's an interesting talking point to be honest.

don't bet on it lol

Im a bit sus about that run.. the GFS indicates high pressure of 1070mB over greenland with deep blue colouring. That usually rings alarm bells for unreliability. As they often said/say, more runs needed. It's likely one of those extreme GFS scenarios it cooks up when it's confused about potential pattern change! (like the previous cold spell back in December)

Short showers of rain and half melted hail currently

those videos are epic. One of the strangest things is that ice was caused by the sheer longevity of the cold, rather than how cold. The lowest temperature recorded in Wirral was -7C the entire winter, but it was consistently below 0C for weeks at a time.

it feels unreasonably mild outside. It is actually 8C currently. That'll be on its way down soon I imagine.

Raining with some sleetiness from the start here but now heavy rain

No chance of any snow here.. Didn't even quite manage an air frost last night despite it looking very likely yesterday evening, though there was a significant hoar frost at one point earlier in the evenig. Currently 3C which is quite disappointing as it puts the dampener on the possibility of snow here. The palm trees survive another day

You can only go with what you've got

Ignore Chris.. We're not sarcastic about growing palm trees in Merseyside . It really does happen

I know I'm already way ahead of you we grow date palms now over on the Costa del Wirral

Have you suddenly gained an interest in exotic gardening?

I know! Damn!

1C this could end up being the coldest night in years here!

Throw me a Coconut, La

At least you don't live in Wirral, remember that.

I remember a lot of snow to rain events in the early-mid 90s. I was often disappointed in seeing a nice fall of snow only for it to be washed away by rain.

Nasty wet sleet showers and cold.. just the worst type of weather in combination with cold. I'd much prefer proper snow

As has been expected it has been rain here, but actually quite heavy at times, with stream of water flowing down the roads. Pretty unpleasant as it has been 4C. Last Christmas that we could define as white here was 1995 or 96, when I remember eating Christmas dinner as a child looking out on the snowy garden of the pub.. unfortunately it was melting that day, since then I don't recall seeing any on Christmas day. That's about 25 years.. good god.

I agree, I think there has been a change, but the scenario is from one extreme to another, so I think you're right re: overreaction. I think the invasion of the Atlantic and the rearing up of the Azores High will be scaled back a little in forthcoming runs, but perhaps not enough to usher the onset of a traditionally accepted winter scenario. Who knows anymore? certainly what I wrote above could be utter bile, no clue!

I'm not sure about cold, but if the ECM operational came off it could end up being rather warm. The models are all over the show at the moment. The outcome is going to be at the extreme end of a scenario.. Which ever one that is. However a good point has been made in the model thread (yes, really).. The re building of the Azores High is inevitable if this pattern is a repeating one.. However this also enables, eventually, another bite at a cold pattern which could deliver next time, because this time we are/were close to getting a cold pattern.

Yes the latest operational is moving things back towards the colder scenario. Ensembles not yet on board but they are on the move with a temperature dip showing up after 26th, though it is quite short lived in most options at the moment. It'll be interesting to see where it goes!

the 18z is moving things back south, but in reality I think a halfway point will be reached, somewhere between the previous cold scenarios of the last few days, and the recently emerging less cold scenario.. and that itself is probably the most unlikely scenario, statistically, but perhaps it is now looking more likely to happen. So perhaps a cold, seasonal feel (for our region), with rain, sleet and snow further north towards Cumbria and north Lancashire, I would say, around Christmas.