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Phil Blake

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Everything posted by Phil Blake

  1. Phil Blake
    I'm only 54 metres in Chester le street. All you hear is the south has had no snow and the north has done brilliant but it's simply not true. Scotland maybe so but the rest of the north elevation has been key so far
  2. Phil Blake
    It's looking great for the north east for once. Although it might be marginal in teeside
  3. Phil Blake
    Harmonie and euro 4 both going for a period of snow in the north east before turning to rain on Tuesday. Arpege is high ground only. I think it will be a high ground only event. Hopefully by next weekend we will all be seeing snow
  4. Phil Blake
    Sea temps are still slightly above average. The difference is the source of air as discussed earlier.
  5. Phil Blake
    Yep if that low moves ese itll be great
  6. Phil Blake
    Looks like the Canadian daughter vortex is a baby in a pram. Maybe a reminder for anyone to not throw anything out of it
  7. Phil Blake
    The models aren't showing a foot of snow down south so they are all crap. I think this could be a half decent spell up here
  8. Phil Blake
    I agree.
  9. Phil Blake
    ??
  10. Phil Blake
    Indeed. I was pointing out that good convection is still more than possible. We had good convection during the last easterly all be it rain
  11. Phil Blake
    Do you mean the southern thread?
  12. Phil Blake
    The last easterly brought almost constant heavy rain and hail in my location and that was uppers of -7 -8 with a sea temp about 8c.
  13. Phil Blake
    -12 should be more than enough for some decent convection. With the North sea around 6 or 7c currently
  14. Phil Blake
    Agree. It doesn't have to -10 outside. 20-30cm will do if it sticks around for about a week. Enough time to have some fun with the kids (missed the 1 good low level event as was at work)
  15. Phil Blake
    I've seen more drama this winter in models than a lifetime on the BBC. The 6z gfs would bury us if it came off though.
  16. Phil Blake
    Seeing a few flakes this morning. Tuesday also looking good for the north east at the minute. Won't go further than that as the models have backed away slightly from full on beast for now
  17. Phil Blake
    Looks like a timing issue with that low. Ukmo clearing it east south east quicker. Much to be resolved
  18. Phil Blake
    I wouldn't worry about precipitation yet. The models won't pick up the serious convection yet if we happen to get the sub -12 uppers moving over the North sea towards us
  19. Phil Blake
  20. Phil Blake
    Current temps are about 6 or 7c. It will naturally get colder quicker closer to the coast as the sea is shallower
  21. Phil Blake
    Current sea surface temperature anomaly still showing the north sea above average. A beast if we do happen to get one with uppers sub -12 would be some great convection for the north east. Especially if we can get the flow right
  22. Phil Blake
    Temps are between 6 and 8c currently so still above average. We had pure rain (not even sleet) with 850s of -7 -8 during a similar synoptic not so long ago.
  23. Phil Blake
    Look at where the air is sourced from on the 12z. Will need uppers colder than -7 -8 due to the warmer than average North sea. Need to see the flow more north of east than south of east
  24. Phil Blake
    Unless my eyes deceive me, that looks like 8 members now below -10. And the mean firmly between -5 and -10. Looking good indeed
  25. Phil Blake
    Temp has dropped from 4c earlier this morning to 2c now. Heavy rain with slight sleetyness to it earlier. Not as heavy now
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