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Hatewarmth

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Posts posted by Hatewarmth

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Yeah not sure why the downbeat mood, everything still looking very good.

    GFS AVG 240H

    GFSAVGEU00_240_1(2).thumb.png.3b528c769d1f20c1615862a571c299cc.png

    ECM 240H

    ECMOPEU00_240_1(6).thumb.png.1580b375caf8cc9e853aeb27dee7a0db.png

    UKMO 168H

    UKMHDOPEU00_168_1(2).thumb.png.3ab286eca405fdeb9d42a17efb1362e7.png

    GEM 240H

    GEMOPEU00_240_1(1).thumb.png.2399b04cad0b5f02d96d73fe2a7bfb79.png

    JMA 240H

    JMAOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.cac2c83dc7250d81b52ab760bf8ab707.png

    All very good at 240h, which is already way out the reliable timeframe, forget what some are showing after. Yes these charts aren't the 10/10 FI charts we been spoilt with over the last few days but they are still very good.

    Forme we have had the expected model wobble, we have had the wobble with the overly good charts a couple of days ago, now we are seeing kind of the other end of the spectrum. Still very good and packed with snow potential in my opinion.

    Once we get the cold in, it should be very stubborn to move! The models usually nearly always overplay any return to a more mild/mobile set-up, with the current northern hemisphere profile and background driver signals at worst I see a battleground scenario setting up next week with milder air to the southwest (with rain/sleet) and colder air to the more NE (with snow showers). Perhaps heavy snow where the boundaries meet.

    Again, a lot of water to go under the bridge, no alarm bells ringing for me just yet, far from it. 🥶❄️

    Totally agree with this. Remember folks that in this sort of setup the reliable is greatly reduced. Not only that very small differences early on can make a HUGE difference further down the line.

     

    i understand that certain models don’t show what they did 48 hours ago but it’s out in FI and should although be noted, also understood that it will very likely change hopefully for the better but yes unfortunately for the worse. Anything after 120 (at the most) should be viewed as trend spotting and not to be taken as gospel.

     

    as the above has stated everything in the reliable is still looking good so do not understand the downbeat mood either. It’s just variations of broadly the same pattern and if the SSW does happen it will only reinforce the oattern

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, NewEra21 said:

    Things have become much messier today compared to the much cleaner evolutions of a few days ago, just don’t want things to get any messier. Otherwise the real cold will struggle to make it to the UK

    It’s just variations of the same general pattern. It’s impossible for models to be so accurate so far out hence why people are debating then

    Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

    No sorry if I came across like that..I'm just discussing the models and what I'm seeing?

    Ok maybe you just need to smile as that’s what the models are making most on here do 😀

    • Like 1
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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Again it's so far out at day 9 it begins..can we take this seriously...ecm wasn't in the mood..

    The real cold has always been progged for the 15th for a week now. Patience 

    21 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Pattern seems to be collapsing..left with a wedge of heights it looks like..we just about get away with it..with the southern extent of the jet

    Is there a reason why you always try to contradict everyone else on here. Well at least that’s how your coming across 

    • Like 3
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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

    If ecm could be wrong at just 48 hours is there any point in taking the rest of the run seriously!!!!!all other models have upgraded the easterly early on yet ecm is still furthest south!!!!

    Exactly. Remember small differences early on can make big differences later on. And at 48 it’s against all the other models. BUT still has to be taken seriously. On the 12z ecm we need to be looking at a shift north at 36. This could make all the difference later on

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

    We can be lenient at this moment in time as long as it's friendly🙂

    happy new year to you too,you have been a diamond on these forums of late,keep it up me lad😉

    as for the cold and snow,...i am sure it will come sooner or later(no pun)as el nino's are back loaded winters and with an -EQBO to boot with a weak pv it betters our chances

    and it's not January yet,...plenty of time.

     

    Think you drank too much as it is January 😂😂😂Happy new year all 🙂

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Although I understand all the optimism in here at the moment and look I get it all we can do is comment on what the models are showing at any given timeframe even if anything past +120 is La La land, I really do urge caution.

     

    How many cold spells have we seen at this range in the past only for them to disintegrate into nothing once we get into the 6 day range. I want a winter navana as much as anyone but anything post 120 is purely about looking for trends.

     

    On a more positive note this cold spell that’s been projected for around the 7th has nothing to do with any prediction SSW so if and when a SSW does happen it could potentially reinforce our cold spell if it does happen.

     

    My only worry is that we end up with a high pressure stick over us and slack easterly winds which in turn will not produce much of what we all want SNOW. Anyway that’s my take on it and  fingers crossed we can get charts that we are seeing at day 10 into the day 3 range 😀😀😀

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, terrier said:

    Looks good to me lots of showers packing in off the North Sea. I’ve seen streamers set up from this set up which has dumped lots of snow in this part of the country ❄️👍

    This is exactly what i was saying yesterday would happen. More often than not the low will track further south and with winds going NE Yorkshire get pummelled with showers and steamers

    • Like 5

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Empire Of Snow said:

    You have to know who to follow and read in the MOD thread otherwise it's very chaotic and infuriating at times. I even find myself checking the location of posters first and then scrolling quickly to the next post. I know it sounds a bit bad but it happens. 

    Regarding the cold spell or spells I'm just waiting for now for a more reliable timeframe. As it stands I can't see anything significant ppn wise, it looks like a repeat of last year with the early season cold spell back then. I'm not a fan of showers though, if a proper low or sliding low is on cards I'll get more excited. The majority of good snow events up here happened with organised systems. 

    IMO all the southerners will be gutted. Watch the low go south into France 😂😂😂

     

    Yorkshire gets bummed in these set-ups. Winds go SE, warm North Sea and shower or steamer after shower or steamer goes straight through our area.

     

    Never forecast even at T + 0. Our area needs a NE wind for any SIGNIFICANT snow and looks what coming. AND the good thing is all models agree pretty much on this. EVEN BETTER is assuming the low does go south then the 850’s will be colder making it less marginal.

     

    Now let just hope my theory is correct 🤞 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

    Just now, Hatewarmth said:

    IMO all the southerners will be gutted. Watch the low go south into France 😂😂😂

     

    Yorkshire gets bummed in these set-ups. Winds go SE, warm North Sea and shower or steamer after shower or steamer goes straight through our area.

     

    Never forecast even at T + 0. Our area needs a NE wind for any SIGNIFICANT snow and looks what coming. AND the good thing is all models agree pretty much on this. EVEN BETTER is assuming the low does go south then the 850’s will be colder making it less marginal.

     

    Now let just hope my theory is correct 🤞 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

    Meant winds go NE NOT SE sorry

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    This run is more in line with the ECM… only patchy sleet into the south Thursday but mass of snow showers Piling in from the east late in the day and into Fri 

    1F2C50A1-B41F-434A-9EA2-585727CBBD2E.png

    This is exactly what I was saying in a previous post. Low to track south and warm North Sea to generate shower and steamers driving inland. This is where the proper snow will come from

    • Like 1
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