[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

59 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

24th January 2021 event is probably the most notable one I know of in recent years that trended north last minute, ended up stalling over Derbyshire and there was up to 7-8 inches in a few spots, got about 3 inches here. I think more often than not they trend south slightly but not always. Interesting to track and monitor what Thursday's system will do regardless from a meteorological point of view.

This is why I highlight the word tend. I hope I’m wrong but this is what make this forum great. Opinion

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Personally I’d be surprised if the low reaches the UK at all - Could easily see this sliding into France with the northern extent perhaps grazing the south coast. 

Would mean heavy snow showers packing in from the east..

Sadly I have to agree with this. In my experience as we get closer to T + 0 these system TEND to track further south. My feeling is most of the setting snow with come from showers or steamers coming in from the north east driven by the relatively warm north sea.

 

Dont have the understanding of charts but have followed this forum for many years and I’m middle aged let say so I’ve seen it all from the traditional white Xmas of 79 to the crap of most years since the mid 80’s lol

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s 2 weeks ago, and easterly wind like that will definitely have snow showers associated with it if that’s what happened - great chart for snow 

Totally agree with this. We should not be looking at charts past 5 to 7 days at the most only for fun. Remember the models are getting this wrong at 48 hours. For precipitation we should stick to the high res models and even then they will change as the fronts hit land.

 

Is it just me or do most get the snow when it’s NOT forecast more than when it is. I personally think this is because atmospheric pressure can alter the track of low pressure systems and fronts as it get near to landfall. Sorry if slightly off topic but feel it’s relevant as it proves that models can’t take into account anything that’s on the ground. The biggest example is hills. Not sure what other people’s thoughts are on this

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

The thing I find on this forum is that given how obviously experienced some posters are why are we seeing comment like “looking at the ECM 168 chart we are losing height over Greenland so there only one way it’s going from there”

 

Having been a long time Lerner there is quite a bit I’ve picked up. 
 

1. How often is a chart correct at 7 days out?

 

2. Once the cold air is established the models always underestimate the strength of the block.

 

3. The models are making big changes currently as early as T+ 24 to 48.

 

All the models are currently showing variations of the SAME TREND. I appreciate people are just describing what a certain model is showing but more if a balance would be more respected.

 

I don’t mean to gripe but can be frustrating when reading comment like this. Look peeps it’s turning colder and possibly even colder with snow possibilities for most towards the end of next week so why not enjoy what appears to be coming rather than looking for the end. Fir most is not about perfection but just the hope of snow

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

What do people think the wind would be like on Saturday for South Yorkshire based in the current model runs.

 

Is it me or does it look quite windy hence it will feel cooler in the stiff southley wind??

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

 

fast forward to the last 5 mins.  Interesting 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

So anyone wanna do some predictions for later and areas

No confidence so zero.  Hope I’m wrong usually am

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

So I’m getting really confused in here.  Has anyone with knowledge got any idea on what’s going to happen or are we all just guessing

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

20 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Back out with dog if this is now can't wait til later

Getting a bit unsure about this evening and overnight.  As I’ve said and others have mentioned it’s clearing from the south west.  Assuming it’s going to pivot but no sign of it in radar.  Starting to get a bad feeling about this now

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Am I right in saying that the precipitation is going to pivot then get heavier as the winds pick up as the radar has it clearing from the south west

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Anyone know what time the heavier stuff is due.  Got to go to Narmanton then to Rotherham before I’m done for the day

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Has the main area of wing reached our area yet

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

6 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Polar Vortex has moved from Canada to Asia. PV over Canada is usually bad news for us in Europe. 

Thank you

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

6 hours ago, That ECM said:

He’s talking about the pv purple blob leaving the nw and going east. Therefore giving opportunities for heights to build nw and the jet stream being less strong. Here are the gefs mean from 06z and 12z you can see that more of the pv is east on this run. Worth looking at future runs to see if this becomes a trend.  

 

There are some brilliant areas within this site to aide learning. I would encourage looking as this hobby is far more enjoyable when you start to get handle on what the charts are showing.

Thanks.  This is really helpful

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

16 hours ago, syed2878 said:

  If you read the post properly you will see that updated_weather did not say anything regarding January he only mentioned the GFS on Tuesday fantasy snow forecast which it was showing on it’s zero hours and six hours run this morning.

Think you need to go back and read the post I quoted as he stated January

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

39 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Mate.. it’s over.

this “event” was never likely in any situation tbh. GFS being typical and being it’s usual self.. 

people need to learn and not take every run like the 6z as gospel. It’ll only lead to disappointment.

follow UKMO and ECM imo.. 

can’t see any snow event or anything noteworthy through the rest of jan.

Can you please explain why or show any evidence of why we won’t see anything noteworthy for the whole of January.  January has still got another 30 days to go and from what I’m seeing from the models they don’t seem to have a clue past 96 hrs atm.

 

you may well end up being correct but posting statements like this is really not helpful and just guess work as things can change very quickly especially in winter.  In my opinion people who make very bold statements like this are just so scared of getting hurt (by not getting any snow) they set themselves up fir the worse case senariio that way it won’t hurt as much if their negative opinions comes to fruitition.

from what I’m seeing in most of the models is a trend to cooler conditions and colder interludes at times.  Also remember the MJO is still very much in our favour and things could chance to a much colder outlook at a moment’s notice.

 

my advice fir what it’s worth is stay positive and watch this space as I think there will be a few supposes this month ️️️️️️️️️️️️️

 

 

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

18 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Hello and merry 27th Dec.. nah that’s just wrong innit?… …anyhoo, I fear  this winters hopes for coldies are only ever going to exist inside a Gfs 6z op computer.. .. perpetually in deep FI…. .. hope I’m wrong but you know, I’m a realist..or am I just a crazy person??..   ! …anyway cheers.. …wots new?..hiccup… roll on winter.. Ja ich bin ein Zyniker..I’m a cynic Ja Ja.. I’m also a drunkard..ps.. I cannae wait for the 12z..oh puleasse.. give me a break!!!!!    

 

Really sorry but I just don’t understand your post.  Cxx as n you explain why it’s relevant in this threads plz.  Many thanks

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

4 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Hello all and Merry Christmas

To follow some post-mortem analysis of the cold spell that never was, I'll attach a set of diverging ensembles from 10 days ago posted by @met4cast which summed up where we were. I also made the point on how in winter it's best to go by the top 3 mild options as they are the most likely outcomes.

Basically the 21st was the fork in the path where this time (like most times) it ended up mild; in fact, there's a chance that the actual outcome will be even warmer than the warmest member!

Oh well, I've the mindset of 'if it can't be cold it might as well be warm'...

I think the most significant thing to note regarding this chart was how early the divergence was.  FI was litter ally 3 to 4 days at the most.  The models did not have a clue.  I think people thought that because of all the HLB that it would have to go the way of cold but sadly it didn’t.  There are signs for temps to drop around the 4th but way to far out.  People must remember the golden rule.  DO NOT could you chickens until it’s inside 72hrs and the 3 main models need to agree

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

So guys and girls let’s ask the experts in here the big question and that is given the improvement and shift in the models overnight to a colder festive period with more of the country now in the firing line for snow what are the chances of seeing the good old white stuff on the 3 big days (24th, 25th and the 26th)

[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

2 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Poor set of models this evening. 

Can you please back up your comments with evidence please for example posting a selection of charts otherwise it’s a totally pointless remark.  Many thanks

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

1 hour ago, TSNWK said:

Oh dear.. was looking a bit better early on.  But GFS teeze keeps in giving and we are left with this in week 

Way way way in FI.  

[Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives]

2 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Is it the gfs that has the habit of picking up a signal, then dropping it only to return to it later or am I thinking of a different model?

Your exactly right.  This is what’s been going through my head this morning.  
 

To much doom and gloom on here given the positive signals AND positive start to the season.  We not even in December yet

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

So what are people’s latest thought on what’s going to happen now it’s dark.  Seems to settling better now.  Looks good going by radar fir at least 10cm to be

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

If you look at the radar there is an area of the coast of the Humber that’s getting wider and filling in.  Seams to have the south of our regions name on it.  Going to start to get interesting soon.  Only my gut feeling though just looking at the radar.  Should help too with the light fading later

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Guys and gals keep the faith.  Showers set to intensify around 3 as we head towards dark.  Think you will see them merge together a bit more too to give longer falls.  The better stuff was always forecast for this afternoon and overnight into tomorrow morning.  Got plenty of time as the showers not forecast to dies out till tomorrow evening at the earliest