[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Just got to my unit just outside central Rotherham and it’s intensified.  Starting to wonder if something brewing.  Are we going to get one of those unexpected falls

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Patchy cover most of the snow melting overnight so turned back to rain for a wile the looks of things. Radar may give us a few flurries but other wise zippo at the moment

Poor start from the kitten from the east.

I see a train....... jump lol

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

5 minutes ago, oldmucker said:

hi

Seems a bit odd that Icon has literally nothing on the East side by monday 9am all the way from North East Right down to the Wash?

That seems a massive area of Yorkshire right near the easterly to get Zilch?

Are we assuming it doesnt factor in showers?

That’s a joke.  How is that possible with an easterly.  Just goes to show how crap the presipitation charts are

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

So does anyone Scott) lol want to have a go at a weekly forecast?? And anyone else for that matter.  Would be interested as a lot of others would be but will be also intending to see how close you are to what actually happens.  Just bought a new house today and not expecting to get much moved over this next seven days or so

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Can anyone in here explain to me why certain posters on here are saying this cold spell is OVER.  Ok the GFS has had 2 bed runs (mainly for the south east) but two things to note.  1 All other models are against it and how many times have we seen this model drop the cold fir 24 hours only for it to come back running with its tail between its legs

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

The other thing is let’s see where the gfs sits in its ensembles.  Personally I always find these to be a very good guide when looking for a general pattern.  Have a feeling that it will be on the milder side but we will see.  Don’t mean an outlier just milder

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

My take on this with my very limited knowledge is that even thought the models have move EVER SO SLIGHTLY towards the ECM they are still amazing.  The low just about clear ESE rather than NE as the odd run has suggested. The bottom line is all that’s happened is it’s been delayed my maybe 12 hours or so.  All 3 models are on board and looks better to me long term.  Talks of downgrades are generally people on the wind up.  Must admit thought not having the ECM on board is a bit of a worry.  The ECM it generally on its own but cannot be ruled out as we are still 120 hrs away from the start of things and models are not at their best in this type of pattern BUT surly you have to go with the majority don’t we.  My gut feeling is that we will be cold but maybe not as cold as some runs are showing but concidering the cag we are used to, this year has been loads better.  To finish what do people thing wrt the face that less cars have been on the road with lockdowns so less poop going upstairs.  
 

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

METO update says yes 

What for.  Tuesday or the easterly

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

1 minute ago, Hatewarmth said:

We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

Sorry doctor I quoted the wrong post.  Meant to quote where he describes each model lol

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

2 hours ago, doctormog said:

Re. Your last point, the ECM op runs have been a very long way from being consistent.

We need to stick to the reliable time frame which is 96 at best and ALL model are just showing the same theme.  These downbeat comments are laughable.  It may turn out that the ECM at day 6 is correct but the one model that models cold the best is the UKMO FACT and upto 96 hours it’s spot on where we need it to be fir cold

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

As other have said the usual thing is fir these systems to correct southwards.  Not a done deal but the trend in the models are there.  It’s as we go through Friday that the real interest lies.  Going to be an interesting couple of weeks with a few surprises me finks

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

This is just ridiculous, the difference between UKMO and GFS at T72:

At that range and in this location my money is lumped on the UKMO!

Can you please explain in more details please