[Moans, ramps and banter]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

What’s been shown is the means are king! 

They have been rock solid in the face of some odd runs, shortwaves, bulges in the ops. But the closer we have got the more the ops have firmed up on what was showing 10 days ago!

 

This cold spell has some legs to go yet! 
 

1-0 GDSM on this years chases!

Have you got anything planned for the big day Scott? Hopefully someone in the village has put some bunting up with your face on.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

P03 has gone off the rails 

How is that in the envelope at 4 days out?!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

All hail the mighty ICON! GFS coming in line.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

Very very nice UKMO 168

PLEASE bring it home UKMO. Bank x100.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Icon, like UKMO, has been resolute of the evolution, and will deserve some credit if it comes to fruition.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Boom what a chart that is at 216 - the Atlantic is dying - stoping moving east

Nice to see lower heights pushed down towards Africa there.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Climate Man said:

Low pressure forming on the southern arm of the jet. Pushing in Wednesday is, bringing threat of frontal snow.

Also, see latest fax charts. They are wondrous with disturbances a plenty queuing up to flood south.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Jacob said:

Yeah a whole foot of snow is definitely a just a dusting 

Looks ok

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, stripeyfox said:

you won't be able to resist mate!

 

 

I’ll be looking at the who’s online list

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Rayth said:

return of the jedi 

Let’s hope they haven’t figured out how to launch short waves from the Death Star!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

@Nick where are we at in Star Wars now after “that fax” and 06z?

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Seems to be more than the Southeast look at the north! Scotland N England it wants to shut down most areas here .  The earlier GFS straight-line Northerlies were showing mainly cold dry conditions for most E/NEly seems much better for much more areas even western areas there

GFS like a siren this morning, wanting us all to get carried away with ourselves. Let’s hope there’s no trick up her sleeve in the next couple of days.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Mcconnor8 said:

Beautiful to see the jet that far South!!!

With the jet that far south and a technical SSW close to being forecast around the 17th, end of Jan/early Feb could be beautiful.

In honour of Scott, I’ll say 30 Jan.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ridge gate done, bulge gate nearly done. 
 

we now move on to northerly gate and low gate and then longevity gate.

Do we want the low in the Atlantic to phase slightly with the low heights in Europe? Will that help keep the Iberian high suppressed? (Still much to learn on my part)

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We’re trying to build up our defences  against the Dark Force as in the Atlantic attack . The Death Star will try and attack the weak point of any blocking .

Thats why we want that straight flow and block in a better position before Darth Vader and his sidekicks attack .

Its crucial to have a solid start , if you see that bulge in the flow early and the block orientating more ne sw it’s easier for Vader to break through our defences.

At that point the battle is almost lost .

# Save Princess Leia ! 

 

When you start talking in Star Wars we’re onto a winner. He’s on the gin mid afternoon!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

Clean as a whistle this run

ICON

12z v's 00z

No prizes for guessing the date on that chart!

@Scott Ingham take a bow, son.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Cutting through each op run so far today.. looking at general direction of travel for next week:

 

- A northerly airflow almost certainly will develop through the weekend. How cold and how far south it digs open to question.

- Heights to the west and north west may not be strongly robust against the cold air spilling out of eastern USA seaboard, but enough to send any injection into the jet on a more southerly course

- whilst the jet may see some added fuel next week, after a week of being inactive in our neck of the woods, it still looks quite weak to me, and consequently the denser colder air invasion should fend it off for a bit

- end result, suspect north half UK will stay in cold air throughout next week, with a question on where the polar front lies, the boundary line could be a magnet for significant wintry precipitation, sliders and trough disruption territory.

In this scenario, I fully expect future model runs to play around with low heights attacking the cold block in various guises. Sometimes barrelling them through the UK, other times sending them south into France, others will disrupt and slide them, the odd rogue one, most likely GFS culprit will send them packing north and exposing UK to mild air. 

I am feeling mildly excited. Bet Sheikhy is too. More runs needed!

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Interesting thing found on the internet… some temperature difference.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

With all the amazing charts of the day, this one is up there - ENS clearly having a quicker transition to the cold - by this time tomorrow we should really start having a good idea of the initial transition to cold for Sunday/Monday - hopefully we can really stay sub -6c uppers (snow conducive) for at least a week from then.  

It’d be lovely to see the Op move towards those quicker solutions over the course of the next few runs.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

12 minutes ago, IDO said:

If we are being honest, something close to the GFS is what we want, even if the south has rain to snow.

Getting heavy snow on the ground before the colder air digs in would be ideal, assuming the rest of the run goes to plan!

D9 snow: 

I mean, the southerners have had their slice today, right?! Everybody else’s turn now

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

7 minutes ago, mfhblue said:

I was watching the same earlier. I think it's due to the slight convergence zone along the northern Dutch cost. I am hoping (not expecting) it might fire a few showers in my direction (NW home counties) later on when the steering winds back more from NE to ENE. As I say, hoping, not expecting at all.

The convergence zone was on the latest fax I think.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

6 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

 

Not sure I've seen a better one in a semi-reliable timeframe?

 

Wishbone vortex. Leave it on the windowsill for a few days and then annoy your sister by snapping it before she gets chance.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Seems like I might not be getting much work done today… great model watching.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

Thanks for uploading this chart. The cold is not going to the S/SE but SW, which erodes the Greenland anticyclone and doens't deliver the true cold air to us.

* in the Netherlands.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, North Easterly Breeze said:

The wait for day 9

Always been the Inghamteenth! But yep it gets closer with each model run.