rwtwm

Second day in a row I've considered turning the light on as I start work! I'm normally quite stoic about the weather in Summer because the additional light and relative warmth still make it preferable to the rest of the year. This last week or so is really starting to test my resolve though.

Quite. A probabilistic model is should have a 5% outcome occur about 5% of the time. Otherwise it's not giving the right probability!

17.0c and 55mm please

That's not the worst match for the ECM 0z mean for July 30th Head just outside the range covered by the Anom, and there seems to be hints of the Azores High ridging in. It's still only hints, but definite signs of an improvement going into next month.

I can see a benefit in giving people a way to negatively respond to a post without having to hit reply. I'm not sure what you've written seems a particular problem though? Take Coldplay for example. They aren't very good, but you'd struggle to argue that they aren't popular.

Apologies, I replied before getting this far up the thread. To write something on topic... How far back do we have to go to find a comparably poor summer month? Here I think no further than July 2021.

Less unusual than doing it in mid-summer mind!

I find it easier to use the ascending/descending views when looking for these sorts of trends. And yes, there's definitely an uptick in towards the end of the 0z ens. Only a modest hint towards any associated warmth though.

Today is looking to be notably chilly in this part of the world. We have a projected max of 16c. The same deviation from average in the winter (-7/8c) would bring an ice day!

From the hadobs page: "Note that the estimated mean value may not be equal to (max+min)/2 because there is always one more minimum value than maximum. This discrepancy is exaggerated during the first part of the month and when the nights have suddenly become significantly colder or warmer." https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html Suggests to me that tonight's minimum is the first measurement in July.

17.7c and 70mm please

15.4c & 31mm please

12.8c & 71mm please

I think April is a month where apparent warmth is as much aligned to sunshine amounts as it is temperature. The air temperature might be a degree above average, but 12 or even 14 degrees, overcast with a breeze isn't very pleasant. 12 or 13 c on a still day with lots of sunshine is a different proposition entirely, particularly with the height of the sun at this time of year. So yes, it has technically been warmer than average in the CET zone so far, but it hasn't felt warm. In April, I don't think the two statements are incompatible.

8.8c 43mm please

I mentioned in the changing daylight thread how important sun is to me in Late Feb/early March to help shake off the heavy feeling from the winter just gone. Well since returning from my Wintersports trip in late Feb, I'm not sure I've seen the sun once! Thankfully, it felt like late spring up the mountain, so I've kicked off my vitamin D production for the year, but the cloud cover is starting to get a little wearing. 2021 was dreadful here! Constant flooding. Good fun for the storm fans I guess, but appealing for usability. It was a weird pattern though as I recall, and one of the best summers in living memory for those northwest of Derby. 2020 wasn't great either as I recall, but everyone only remembers the persistently warm and sunny spring.

6.8c and 72mm please.

2 observations: 1) This week is the first that the sun is above the houses opposite, when I head into my office in the morning. 2) I spied a '2' on the UV index forecast for tomorrow. A sure sign that spring is on the way!

I know these are a run or two out of date now, but it's notable how dry they are too... The more unsettled spell starting on the 13th seems to have faded into a slight drizzle.

The Icon 18z isn't having any of it. In a way the jet pattern at 78h tells most of the story. ICON first... And then GFS... You can see the additional upstream amplification on the GFS output. Over the UK as well you can see the energy swinging back West. It's one of those unstable patterns, where a little change leads to hugely different eventual results in a relatively short timeframe.

Looking like we'll get some high pressure, but it's still not clear exactly where it'll end up. I'll guess 5.9c and 66mm please

Clear skies and the opportunity to head out for a walk around lunch really help here! Some years the heavy feeling can linger well into March, where Feb and March are dull. A sunny mid Feb can really lift the spirits though. It doesn't have to be an early Summer a la 2019, clear and chilly works just as well.

Already bored of the winter gloom that accompanies a slack, short fetch easterly. Give me sunshine and showers on a mild Westerly over this please.

The start looks very mild and stormy! My wild stab is 6.1c and 131mm please

Leathering it down on the M11 between Harlow and Epping right now. Can't tell if it's settling away from the road.