rwtwm

Lots of flakes in the wind here, but not much hitting the ground. Still little more than a dusting despite about 24 hours of snow on and off.

I'm not sure how broadly you are defining the event, but the fax charts suggest convergence lines on the east coast until late Wednesday at least. I'd expect more general convection about if these exist.

Well I'm still none the wiser! Some runs shift the front a little further north-west others more south-east. Some give good convection potential, others don't. The apps are shifting fairly wildly too. Sometimes with heavy snow overnight, sometimes with constant showers through the day. I think I've settled into an 'expect little, hope for more' for now. When my friends have been asking I've been giving my 90% interval as 2cm to 10cm by 00:01 Monday.

This has been asked a lot today, maybe there are a few replies I haven't gotten to. No wet ground doesn't stop snow settling if it's cold enough, and it should be cold enough. It can slightly lower the amount that sits though, depending on how wet it is, how heavy the snow is and how quickly the temp drops.

After the 12zs yesterday and the 0zs today, I was expecting that one of the ops might roll out a solution like this at some point today, with the wedge over Scandinavia growing, and then beginning to retrogress. I don't know if it will happen like that, but the trend for WAA rising either over the UK or just to our west seemed to be gaining a little momentum.

I'm really not sure how Sunday will go in this part of East London. We could get lucky with either the front or a well aligned band of showers and end up with somewhere close to 10cm. Alternatively we could be on the Western edge or just north of the front which will cut off the convection too. I'm not one for giving up on models to just peer out the window, but given that these things can move 50 miles from modelled even one run before the event, I don't think I'll be convinced by any call until I see the radar echoes.

The last 2 ECM runs have also hinted at this low extending heights to the north of the UK. The position of the stall is out by a good few hundred miles between the 0z and yesterday's 12z but the trend is the same. It'll be worth watching FI on the 12z set this evening to see if a reload after a milder interlude starts to become the form horse.

This model analysis lark is tough huh? I just spent a few minutes typing out my interpretation of the 12z runs, but when I went to get some charts to back up my claim, I realized I'd completely misinterpreted the 12z ECM! I'd recommend it actually, as even though I didn't end up posting anything (except this), it did make me look at the models more carefully.

Hello everyone, I've been lurking on this forum for years and reading the charts for even longer (first got into the weather in the run up the heatwave of 2016). I won't go into too much detail but I received some pretty bad news today, and given the excitement over the coming spell I thought that finally getting involved might help take my mind off of things. Obviously there's a range of options for the coming week, but they vary from a decent spell of winter weather to an exceptional one. Here in East London, we are often sheltered from the streamers unless the wind direction is just so, so I'm focusing on both the 'limpet' low on Sunday as it slides away and the first slider under the block as our potential big opportunities. If everything falls just so, this could be a spell to rival 1991 in my memory (my first weather memory). If the easterly orients correctly and the uppers get cold enough for showers to get miles inland it could be even better. To the person above in Walthamstow, can I recommend Wanstead Park? It's not too far to walk from there (depending on whereabouts you are) and looks great in most weathers.