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rwtwm

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Everything posted by rwtwm

  1. rwtwm
    Thanks to Roger J Smith and JJ10 for running this! Best of luck all for your guesses this year. I'm going cool and dry for this one. 3.7c and 58mm please.
  2. rwtwm
    8.8c and 120mm please
  3. rwtwm
    Whoops! Busy week! 9.9c with 99mm please (only slightly tweaked from my actual thoughts because of the poetry)
  4. rwtwm
    I see there's a lot of 15.5c guesses, which was my instinct too. But just to be slightly different I'll go for 15.6c instead please. Slightly Wetter than recently but not actually wet is my rainfall guess. 61mm
  5. rwtwm
    CEDA | News WWW.CEDA.AC.UK I have this bookmarked, under the perhaps fanciful thought that one day I'll make an explorable weather records site. Until such a day, would you be able to use the raw data?
  6. rwtwm
    The cut-off upper low is visible there on the day 9 mean chart! Must be more than a whisper of a chance then.
  7. rwtwm
    17.3c and 45mm please
  8. rwtwm
    The breadth of falling local records really is something! The heat seems so uniform across a wide area, which is noteworthy in itself.
  9. rwtwm
    33C at 9am Monday?! That's a tough old commute for those still doing them.
  10. rwtwm
    Sorry to pick on you when you're far from the only person doing it, but: "It's fine in this place that it always happens and they're used to it, so we should be fine here where it's unprecedented" Is far from the slam dunk logic it's being made out as.
  11. rwtwm
    Honestly, this is what worries me. Given how quickly water will evaporate, I'm not sure people will realise quite how much they are sweating. That's a recipe for dehydration, and a bunch of people that feel fine until suddenly they aren't.
  12. rwtwm
    I know I'm late on this but this seems an odd take. Why would people not go to open tree filled/water adjacent spaces when it's hot? That seems better than (e.g.) sitting in a flat with no AC and large windows catching the sun.
  13. rwtwm
    ICON out in full and has the 20c line hit Cornwall at 126h, and is over some of the country for the rest of the run (up to 180h). The persistence of the conditions could be a bigger issue than the absolute maximum.
  14. rwtwm
    3 consecutive days where the modal cluster is above 20c at 850mb. That's a really shocking plot.
  15. rwtwm
    39.1c Cambridgeshire on Sunday. I think this morning's wobble is just a wobble, and while the extremes were overplayed, the record will go.
  16. rwtwm
    Looking at that plot, I'm not sure the peak mean is that informative. As not every ensemble peaks at the same time, the mean doesn't reflect the consensus maximum. Many of those runs get up past the 20c mark, and it looks like 7 or 8 get up to 24/25c. Just at different times.
  17. rwtwm
    Just as crazy to think that the mean, all that way below the op run, probably still meets the heatwave threshold.
  18. rwtwm
    18.2 and 41mm please
  19. rwtwm
    Whoops, late this time. 16.2c and 81mm please
  20. rwtwm
    10.8c and 55mm please
  21. rwtwm
    10.1c and 79mm please
  22. rwtwm
    7.0 and 87mm please
  23. rwtwm
    The days are getting longer, the sun higher, and my thoughts too are turning to Spring. But then I think back to the fact that the best two summers in recent memory were 2013 and 2018. It's probably just coincidence, but if one leads to the other, then I wouldn't mind a late cold snap.
  24. rwtwm
    Apologies if this is one of many, but the chart shows peak wind speed from 0h - 23:00h. So the highest predicted for the whole day.
  25. rwtwm
    I've been thinking today that for much of the Amber area, two ticks would be appropriate in the grid. One as shown, fairly high confidence of highest impact. But there's near certainty of the second level of impact too so there could be a tick in the third box on the top row. I'm not suggesting they do this, and I'm not sure if it would help. More just pointing out another difficulty in communication and interpretation.
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