Mark Smithy

Well, yes. I guess the scientific or meteorological difference there is that it was in a highly blocked situation with the jetstream barely a whisper on the distant horizon. It's the jet which powers into these shores and so often scuppers cold set ups. Or at the very least adds a huge dose of lady luck into the forecasting out past T168. So, I need to qualify what I wrote: from autumn through spring.

That depends if you think they were ever really on it? UKMO never was, although admittedly only goes out to T140. ECM was never really into it. And the GFS has flirted with it out past T168, and really out past T240, alternating from cold to mild. I don't know how often it needs to be said but we really ought to heed this as winter approaches: the second half of every GFS run should NOT ever be treated as gospel. I frankly wish they would stop producing it. If they knew the grief and stresses it causes cold lovers in the UK every winter perhaps they would desist. Past T168 is not, ever, to be taken as probable, nor even likely. Have a nice day everyone.

The real problem at the moment, it seems to me, is the one identified on the main NW headline this morning. To quote: "with a strong jet powering across the Atlantic" I know the jet can amplify, buckle, and split but right now it is so darned powered that the tendency is always going to be for it to blast out any blocking. It's like dragon's breath:

Yep the 18z was right on the outer rim: If the milder scenarios start coming into the mainstream then it's more of a problem. However, all of this is really candy fluff. Anything past T168 isn't worth losing sleep over right now, be that mild or cold.

The thing is, the ensembles have shown huge scatter and most of the FI operational GFS runs have been way out on a limb, occasionally even outliers. It bears repeating that any charts beyond T240 (and more likely T168) are best treated as elevator music. Background noise, vaguely comforting, but not something you would sit down in a concert for.

In a word, no.

We have operational yo-yo's past T240 from the GFS at the moment. It's constantly changing. Clearly it is having a struggle with whether any blocking will hold and, if so, where and how. For example, this was the pretty awful 18z, which was way out on the milder side and predominantly zonal for the UK: But now we're back to the colder scenario with the 0z. For what it's worth, this chart looks highly improbable: There's no such thing as a high pressure cell extending from Cape Verde up through the Azores, across the British isles, through Scandinavia and up to the Barents Sea and into the Arctic Ocean. I mean, literally a ridiculous chart. All eyes on the ECM ...

The UKMO is also grim if you're a coldie. The good news is that it's still only mid November.

Yep. I'm afraid this is spot on. This is a full bore Atlantic blast with both barrels. Mild and wet and occasionally stormy. Batren down the hatches all ye cold lovers 'cos there ain't no cold on these runs unless you're standing on top of the Cairngorms. And if you are, you'll soon be in the North Sea

Evening all. The GFS having one of its moments or the real deal?

And just like that, the ECM throws us a bone!

Well eventually if we keep saying it, it will come to pass in much the same way that the tail will eventually pin to the correct place on the donkey's derriere, Meanwhile, back in the real downstream world of UK weather the 0z GFS and UKMO are even more zonal and Atlantic than anything the past few days have shown. There's even, shudder, the re-emergence of a southern European high e.g.: I think it behoves us to be honest about this: there's no sign in the model outputs of any pattern change (whatever signs people read into telekineticconnectiontealeaves). We are stuck in an Atlantic westerly flow with considerable rainfall over the next fortnight. Squelch. p.s. sorry to appear cynical but I've been studying UK meteorology for so long that I am weary of forecasting based on what our weather ought to do: whether that's Beasts from the East or Pacific Patterns. The fact is that the prevailing south-westerlies crossing 3000 miles of anomalously mild Atlantic ocean, together with a warming North Atlantic Drift, have a tendency to send teleconnection theories awry. We're currently in a significant Atlantic phase after a very blocked summer and there's no sign of a let up.

Blimey. It's looking pretty "moist" over the next 10 days You can almost see people's expressions in the streets sag with all of this soaking. Nevertheless as others have pointed out above, there are still encouraging signs and the Alps may be getting some heavy snowfall, with the tantalising east-European high as well on the ECM 240h. Above all else though, it's still the middle of November. As Jon Snow says above, we could yet be getting a quieter colder start to winter proper which is nearly a fortnight away. Still a lot of huff and puff in that Atlantic jetstream to get through first. Let's hope it blows itself out.

Bet you wouldn't be saying that if you lived in the Kalahari desert. Britain is green for a reason and the stuff which falls out of the sky was what the Shah of Iran called our 'liquid gold.' Which is just as well, because the models are even more Atlantic driven overnight than they were yesterday. Lots of rain piling across the UK to replenish the aquifers that were at record low levels after that bone dry summer. Oh and one other positive from the latest runs is that the Alpine high (sounds like Alpine Joe) has been replaced by a succession of interesting waves and lows, with some potentially heavy falls next week. Good news for ski fans! p.s. to those saying about having a disagreement about anomalies, there's no disagreement. Those who over-rely on them have a tendency to make forecasting errors, as we have seen over the past fortnight. There was no pattern change, no high pressure build, and no end to the zonality. Treat them circumspectly and make sure you factor in the downstream variables which make the UK fairly unique for its latitude. That's all.

As expected the so-called Scandinavian High is getting pushed away eastwards on the latest runs. The ECM and UKMO were right about this, against the GFS which keeps trying to build height rises. So the anomaly forecasts were inaccurate: let's not beat around the bush. Basically, the weather has reverted to type: an ongoing blast from the Atlantic with rainfall totals steadily accumulating. When the weather in Britain is like this it's possibly better not to pay too much attention to medium and long term modelling. The jetstream remains very strong and relatively flat. It will abate because it always does, but there's a way to go yet. Could easily be mid-December before this lot blows itself out and we come under the spell of genuine blocking. That's okay though. I'd rather have autumnal conditions in autumn anyway. And we did need the rain.

The good news is that it's still not yet middle of November so, really, none of this matters right now. And some of the scenarios have cold sinking into parts of Europe. One concern, as mentioned by others, are the warm seas. With a jet this powerful (exceeding 200 mph off the NW coast of Scotland right now) then cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard remains a distinct peril for those of us wishing for cold to reach these shores. That's about it.

Hi BFTP. Sorry but this is not what the ECM shows. The ECM has the high sliding away south. This is an Atlantic dominated snapshot at T240 of the 0z ECM: In some ways the UKMO is even more progressive than the ECM. This is T144 and this is certainly not a serious block and it certainly is being shifted:

This is a bit misleading. If anything the GFS has moved away from the more solid idea of a Scandinavian High to something hybrid. The ECM has the high sliding away south which is by far the more likely progression that the rather unusual suggestion from GFS of it continuing to disappear into the arctic circle. The problem with the scenarios showing today is that they potentially leave the UK in a mild south-westerly flow. Or at least it would be a problem if it were mid-winter. It's November so it's fine for now.

Morning all. All 3 models developing the idea of a high pressure to our north-east. BUT, and it's a big but, none of the 3 models really have a classic Scandinavian High. The GFS has it heading further north-east over Murmansk and then even further out to the Barents Sea. Neither the UKMO nor especially the ECM are exactly on board either. UKMO has the centre over Finland / Baltic Sea. If you're looking for cold over the Alps, great. If you're looking for cold over the UK, not. ECM doesn't have a Scandinavian High. It has a high pressure centring over Estonia, which then slips away south. All that does is keep the UK in mild to very mild south-westerlies. What this DOES potentially do though is release some serious cold into eastern Europe and in the long term that might be important for cold winter lovers here. The term 'Scandinavian High' should really imho be reserved for a high which sits over Norway/Sweden.

Yes and yes. It is indeed standard autumn fayre really. Pretty wet and wild. I've lived through many autumns of similar conditions and it often doesn't settle until well into December. It's probably a bit of a shock after that prolonged blocked period through summer, that's all.

Good morning and that looks like a good call. ECM continues the battering next week but at T240 there's just a hint of the very thing you suggest, ridging of the Azores High. That's more normally associated with summer though and I suspect it'll get flattened by the jet but we shall see.

Another pretty wild Atlantic run from the 0z GFS. Monday: Thursday next: Monday week: And so on: Does weather have memory? Most meteorologists will say 'no' but it does feel like we're now paying for that prolonged spell of blocked summer weather with an Atlantic battering and lots of rain. For those of us winter lovers this is a slight concern, or it is for me. This is very zonal now. The good news is that it's only November but looking at the pattern and the jetstream I could see this continuing well into December. Warmest year on record looks very likely. It would take a well below average December to prevent it.

It's little surprise that the high pressure has no chance of holding when you have this barrelling into it: The problem with over-reliance on upstream teleconnection forecasting is that that word 'reliance'. You have to try to factor in the downstream variables which place the UK in a unique meteorological position for its latitude: prevailing wind directions, cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard, sea temperatures, warm Atlantic currents (NAD). What this essentially comes down to is what all of us cold lovers know instinctually by now: that what can go wrong probably will. The scary part of this is that whilst this used to be true for us in the UK alone, now parts of the European Continent and Scandinavia are bearing the brunt of the same onslaught.

Well no actual pattern change on the ECM. There's a temporary lull of sorts: Then it's back to full blast from the Atlantic: Very progressive with a lot of zonality still to play out. Maybe the ECM has got this wrong but I doubt it.

Looking at the 6z GFS some of the model runs definitely think there's a way to go before the zonality blows itself out. The good thing is that I'd much rather have this now than in January. And as we all know things can rapidly change. But in the meantime there still seems to be a lot of energy coming relatively direct across the Atlantic: My inclination looking at this is to repeat that any settling down is going to be transient: for now. I could be very wrong though!