Mark Smithy

All ye who love cold and snow, the annual season of hope begins Seriously though, I was in the Highlands last October and we had a fair bit of snow on the tops. September would be pretty unusual I believe.

Blimey! Settled this is not

p.s. as we head into winter I do hope we won't get into he/she said this or that squabbles. Forecasting is never easy, always so in the UK and especially at times of transition. One day's apparent triumph can soon lead to next day's egg on face. Model output watching is a febrile exercise and most of us are amateur meteorologists or good old weather watchers. Not even professionals get it right all of the time. A little humility, good grace and gentle interaction will be great.

Interesting situation developing. The GFS is moving more towards the ECM with an end of blocking. Meanwhile the ECM itself has just developed something that the Met Office are hinting at: that the jet is heading southwards, potentially placing the UK to the north of the PFJ. If so, and if this 10-day chart materialises, then it may herald a distinctly cooler mid-month. A lot of 'ifs' in there though.

14.1C (Edit as last night counts towards August, I believe, I hope my 7 am entry on the 1st September will be permitted?! )

In terms of debating about 'warmth', as stated by most of us, there will be warm plumes over the next week depending on where you are living and where the low sits. It's not going to feel very warm on the north-east coast of Scotland for example. But there will be some warm plumes coming up out of the south-west and as this low pressure cell has some features of a tropical storm type set up, it's going to feel muggy in places, especially in the south-east, albeit offset by the wind and rain at times. But I'm a bit less confident now about my prediction of another 30C day in September. This is going to feel like an abrupt switch from summer to autumn and as the thermal gradient drops away through the month we may not end up with an anomalously warm CET. Early days though and one week of unsettled weather does not an autumn make.

That's 5mm each day though. If anything, the overnight runs looks to have pepped up precipitation synoptically. Edit. As KTtom says above.

Good morning everyone. We are in for a lot of rain over the next week! Looking further ahead, the overnight 0z GFS has now followed the ECM evolution with the two ex-tropical storms breaking through the wall and arriving on these shorts. But only just. There's still a lot of HP blocking to the north on this scenario so it could go either way. As others have pointed out, the models often struggle with tropical storms in the Atlantic. But the latter is the word: the Atlantic slumber may be over.

Yes and it may be. However, that's not as outlandish as it first seems. In fact, although the 0z GFS may appear dramatically different with its FI high pressure rebuild, the two models are actually within a whisker of each other. The difference is that the ECM has the tropical storm breaking through whereas the GFS has it trying but failing: sitting out over the Azores allowing the mid-Atlantic high pressure ridge to slip in. ECM: GFS: So those first two charts from ECM and GFS are pretty similar:

Pretty solid model agreement that we are moving into a decidedly unsettled spell of weather with the low pivoting around and over the British Isles and only gradually filling. There could be some much needed rain from this. FAX chart for Saturday paints a messy picture: UKMO: GFS synoptic charts and precipitation: Yesterday's 12z ECM showed a lot of rain. There may be some warmer plumes during the pivoting of the low but given the instability this could set off even more rain. Just read back this post and agreed all round

Wow the ECM is a wet run It has it starting Friday in the SE and then significant rain for a few days:

Thanks MP-R. Most interesting. As I understand it (which doesn't say a lot) it's the meeting of the low pressure coming up from the south and the one coming down from the North west which is generating something of a low pressure vortex as they combine? Certainly looks quite intense on the 06z GFS: I imagine the positioning of this cell will be important to determining the draw of the winds. To the north/north-west it will certainly not be a warm vector:

Thanks. Any chance of posting up some historic examples of low pressure cells retrogressing west to east under high pressure to the north which then ridges into mid-Atlantic blocking as the current models show? It's that which I just can't recall seeing very often. I'd genuinely love to see evidential charts of when and where it has occurred and at which times of year? Not being awkward: truly really interested by this. If only it were winter ...!!!!!

Not the UKMO And any warmth from this kind of set up feels a little perilous, as evidenced by the GFS ensembles. Yeah they really are. As a weather watcher I'm fascinated by it as it feels really unusual. And how often have we ever seen a set up like this in winter? 1978/9 comes to mind but I'm not sure I can recall a low retrogressing and forming quite like this. Someone? Anyone?

Some of the oddest synoptics I've ever seen. GFS and ECM united in having the low quite far out to the SW, although worth noting that the GFS operational was one of the warmest members and even an outlier for a time: The UKMO has the low much closer to the UK:

Just read this back and you're spot on. It really is pretty unusual for the time of year. These are not inherently warm runs so anything that does come our way in that regard will be via the back door: low pressure cell parked out west, pulling up SW flow. But essentially this is a cooler set up than we've been used to in early September. As others have pointed out, there are some distinctly cool looking days in the mix. NB the GFS ensembles. The op is on the warmer side in the key period:

These synoptics actually remind me of winter 1978/9! They are quite unusual: I'm talking about the synoptics not the temperatures Mind you, this chart in early September?! Basically we are getting a low pressure cell because of blocking not instead of it. A significant amount of retrogression and first northern, and then mid-Atlantic blocking.

That's not really what the 6z GFS says though. A decidedly cloudy, often wet and pretty cool run throughout. It's definitely not a warm run. Not saying it's right, just what the model shows. And as it's in accord with the others I'm not sure I'd bet against. Looks like a pretty unsettled picture in early September.

Certainly moving into an unsettled spell end of the coming week. The GFS pressure rise in FI doesn't at the moment have much support. It's a slightly strange set up though, with high pressure to the north e.g. over Svalbard, so still a lot of blocking and I'm not sure one could really describe it as Atlantic-driven. And with that amount of blocking it doesn't take a lot for things to revert to settled conditions. I'm hugely looking forward to lots of rain and hopefully some wind too. I love proper autumnal weather and just hope the most unsettled charts come off. Yum: bring it on .

Slender signs of Atlantic awakening. But they are indeed slender, for now.

You are being rude again and that's disappointing. I'm not 'moaning' Rob I am suggesting that you look again at how autumn is a time of renewal. Storms frequently occur when temperature gradients are at their steepest, October 1987 being a classic example. It's those extreme temperature gradients which contribute significantly to cyclogenesis. Conversely, and I'm sure you don't really mean to dispute this, high pressure cells are most frequent during high summer and mid-winter: the times when blocking most frequently occur. Empirically of course equinoxes have the greatest change in day and night length: by 7 minutes or more every 24 hours in southern Britain. The day-night lengths are at their most stagnant on June 21st and December 21st and take many weeks to begin to change. When they do, they speed up exponentially and are at their most rapid points of change on March 21st and September 21st. Really indisputable. These are times of great energy. I think in your rather knee-jerk reaction to a point that is outside your comfort zone you are not really listening to the paradox of autumn. The changes that we see, which are so dramatic, are not 'death'. The decay is not about trees or plants actually dying. They are preparing. And preparation is a time of intense activity. In mid summer there is a calm. Animals sleep during the heat of the day. In autumn activity becomes intense as Nature prepares for the next solstice, when the Earth sleeps once more. I will leave it there. Maybe try being a little less aggressive and open to another POV.

I have replied to you @mushymanrob over on the Summer thread https://community.netweather.tv/topic/97225-summer-2022-chat/page/159/#comment-4712663 But please don't call someone strange or use mocking emojis, if you have not listened to them or a perspective from which you might even learn something.

A reply to @mushymanrob as it sits better in this thread. Please don't call someone 'strange' if you don't know them or listen to them. Especially the derogatory mocking application of a laughing emoji. You are quite wrong. Paradoxically autumn is a season of huge renewal. It's when Nature prepares for winter. Like Spring, when the sap moves the other way. Autumn is most certainly not about death and decay. It is a time of immense movement and energy. Signs of that occur everywhere if you look. Autumn is not still, nor is it dying or decay. It is a very busy time. Nature doesn't 'die' in autumn. It gets ready. It is in preparation for a still period before bursting into renewal the next spring. Just as sleep is not synonymous with death, so autumn is not about dying. At the solstices the sun and earth are in balance: the days and nights are of equal length. The earth is still in itself and less energetic. Changes either side are slow and take many weeks. Conversely at the two equinoxes the energies are powerful. Days and nights change by several minutes every twenty four hours. There is movement. I am very proximal to Nature and the elements. I know you spend a lot of time gardening too but this is something deeper. But ... listen a little to another's perspective. My words are in tune with many others who live close to the land like Robert MacFarlane, Merlin Sheldrake (wow the fungi in autumn is something else) and Robin Wall Kimmerer. Meteorologically we see a match. Often the quietest times coincide with those solstices with high pressure blocking in mid-winter and mid-summer. It is at the equinoxes that energies become resurgent, and the heavens open replenishing our ground with life-giving water.

Yes and a big ensemble split on that trough: This is going to be close to the warmest August ever recorded in the CET (cooler in the north). I don't think pattern matches really work. The weather can change suddenly and although the Atlantic currently looks very stagnant, I have a feeling that will change with a vengeance. After all, this February saw one of the worst storms in living memory.

The models are certainly showing a transition at the moment but melancholy? Not for me. I find summer dull, when the whole of Nature is torpid. The two solstices mark the least point of energy. It's the equinoxes when all the energy of earth, wind, sky and spirit are at their zenith. I love autumn. It's the most magnificent season, full of energy and, yes, renewal. When the elements are charged and Nature is moving. I've lived in the country much of my life and I hike masses. You learn to sync with the seasons. In terms of day length, yes of course the days are getting shorter. But there will still be summery weather for the next month or more. And then lovely autumn. It's the season to get out for long walks with beautiful wind and rain in your face, alternating with sun and when berries are ripe in the hedgerows. There is energy afoot. The models may look cool right now but I'll wager that there will be at least one more day of 30C before we fully transition into winter season. And, besides, as Sir Ranulph Fiennes said, you can sunbathe in 0C. It's true, you can. Find a sheltered cleft in a rock on a sunny autumn or winter's day and it's magnificent.