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Richard Lake

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    Winter 2010/2011 Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    What generally dry and cold/very cold can produce

    1986 Very cold (-1.1C CET), with frequent light snowfalls. The second coldest February of the century (after 1947), and third coldest month. The month was similar to January 1963 in being a completely blocked month, with a high centred over north Russia bringing some very cold air east. Winds were easterly for 23 days, and were of virtual calm for the remaining days. Easterly winds had already set in by the end of January. Snow cover was widespread in the east, where it was very dull: Cupar (Fife) registered only 41 hours sunshine all month. In the west it was very dry and sunny (144 hours sunshine on Anglesey; with no measurable rain at all in some western coastal sites). The lowest temperature was at Grantown-on-Spey, where it reached -21.2C on the 27th. The lowest temperature around Birmingham was -11.0C, at Elmdon, on the 21st, and the highest, just 3.8C on the 28th. Freezing rain in the north Midlands. Up to 50 mm of glaze was recorded on broken power lines at Buxton on the 2nd. Widdybank Fell, at 513 m above sea level in County Durham, remained beneath freezing all month, and had a total of 32 consecutive days beneath zero - probably a record for a habited area. This was our last exceptionally cold month (average beneath zero). I remember our toilet freezing and a six inch icicle growing out of the cistern overflow. I reckon this is the last time I experienced a temperature beneath -10C. The cold persisted into early March. For some reason I find that February 1986 is often "the forgotten month" when one talks about extreme winters in Britain. Perhaps this is because there wasn't any widespread serious disruption due to heavy snow over a wide area, perhaps because there weren't any record-breaking low temperatures, and perhaps because the rest of the winter was unexceptional. Indeed, some parts of the country had no snow at all. Nevertheless, it was, and remains, the coldest month since January 1963.

    So don't be too concerned about dry...not that this is forecast of course.

    BFTP

    Hi all,

    Back for the winter... okay just dropping in brief can't see much snow on the horizon just yet. :-(

    Winter 1986 is perhaps the most memorable winter I remember as a child. Whether it was actually February or not I can't be sure, but was very very memorable where I live. Being only 9 at the time, I enjoyed 2 weeks off school thanks to the snow. Depth was truly historic in this area, 12inches was common in everybody's backyard and easily 6 to 8 inches on the pavements.

    I must have a look through some old photo albums, am sure my old folks took plenty at the time. Would be great to see what others may have posted on NW as well from that year.

    So for me BFTP I'll never forgot that year as it was truly historic in Northern Lincolnshire.

    General Climate Change Discussion Continued:

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    We can't cling on to Winter for ever though can we , There is something magical in the air about the first morning of spring and the charts are showing 2 glorious days of Sunshine for most , This in it's self is enough to put a smile on my face. It has been a long winter and if the trend of the last 2 years continue then we could be looking at another cold winter next year . I had a thought earlier as well what hasn't really been mentioned , I wonder if our efforts to reduce global warming are actually working and if this is helping to get seasons back to normal.

    I find it quite hard Chris not to respond to your post regarding global warming. I know you was only wondering, but I feel the answer is almost a definite no. Society is certainly heading in the right direction, but surely much more needs to be done?

    Look at car ownership which has grown exponentially over the last 20 years or more, yes it is not the only contributor to global warming, although the biggest by far. Now that the models seem to refuse to show anything wintry; I urge everyone just to spend 15 minutes on the below website and perhaps we can discuss this further elsewhere on the forum.

    http://www.renault-ze.com/uk/#/uk.html

    Will 2011/2012 turn out to be a pinnacle point in the evolution of the car? Will people embrace this technology? How long will people continue to tolerate extortionate oil prices? Is there enough will power and incentive in the private sector to build this infrastructure and sustain it? How long will it take for other car manufacturers to follow suit?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rikki

    TWS, just having a little whinge forgive me. Its a little pet hate. When people start talking about wanting Spring to come, Mushymanrob begins posting and the cold perhaps snowy weather to end, many people leave NW for another year I don't want this to come to soon. The only thing I read NW for is signs of snow, that traditional max exodus of NW is steadily approaching lets hold it back as long as we can.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rikki

    Quite a mix of model output this morning with varying outcomes around a theme of high pressure developing just to our north and pressure staying relatively low over Europe.

    The GEM is the most wintry model output this morning, the UKMO and ECM look something in between and the GFS perhaps has the least snow potential.

    Plenty to play for in terms of what may happen - but what seems pretty certain is that as we turn into Spring officially - the actual Winter 09/10 pattern still continues with things very much still on the cold side.

    Great output this morning from GFS. As expected the GFS has downgraded/has another view on progression of the high this week with less of the country seeing the colder temperatures, but in all for the time of year not bad. Still hoping for some upgrades along the way of course. Really need to shift this mild mush.

    General observation of the weather pattern across Europe certainly shows sign of winter residing though, a friend in Sweden was telling me only yesterday that they have been stuck in deep snow for many weeks now and are sick of it all. I also read a news report yesterday about unusually high snowfall in Moscow recently, so some places have had an excellent season for sure. :)

    NSSC, I wouldn't exactly use the word 'officially' when talking about the beginning of Spring as being the 1st of March when everyone knows it is actually 21st March; meteorology definitions of the seasons aren't 'official' per se, is there a better word we can use in its place as not to upset us traditionalists? :rofl:

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    did not think it wood :)

    Of course the problem is its been raining on and off all day, but IF the dew point continues to drop further this may turn out to be an 'event' as the radar looks positively active. Could be promising as we head towards sunset.

    Looking at the radar the heaviest PPN is a few miles to your west, and moving slowly east.It's been over my area for hours but it's slowly easing.

    Have you managed a dusting yet?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rikki

    hmm.... signes in fi at long last that things might warm up. ok, its 1 run, but hopefully its a trend setter and by this time next week spring might be awakening!

    im not holding my breath though.

    You know when winter is drawing to an end when Mushy dares post in the model thread after his winter hibernation.

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rikki

    Decided to take a breathier from reading the forums everyday, first time I've been on since Friday and I see everything has gone totally pear shape. Where has all the snow gone in the forecast? It was looking very very good at the last chart I saw and all were in the 'reliable' timeframe, all the models were forecasting snow on and off all this week across eastern areas and I have yet to see a flake! And the charts look positively dire. :)

    The high seems to dive south and meet an early death and there are pockets of milder area throughout this week.. far cry from the weekend's charts from the respected models. I've lost confidence in all of them how can they all be so god damn far off the mark?

    :) :) :)

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Very true Frosty, we've been here before so should be even more cautious than normal given the last week. Having looked over the output again I've decided I don't like the GFS or UKMO as they pass my nerve shredding threshhold, too much needs to go right, far too many shortwaves need to play ball with those. The ECM has a simpler route to cold with the Atlantic trough more favourably tilted, my advice to people is to hope the ECM calls this right upto 144hrs. As I've always said get the cold first then worry about the snow.

    Nick, if we see such agreement tomorrow then I think this forum will explode. If we see the flip.. I dare not think about it.

    The great thing is despite everything plenty of the UK already has the cold, I've seen 3cms last friday, tonight I have another unexpected snowfall, must be about 3cms right now and still falling heavily. All this at a coastal location!

    Current conditions tell a tale.

    Model Output Discussion:

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rikki

    Evening,

    Wow a great deal of interest tonight and I can't blame anyone for getting excited. First time all 3 have agreed on anything in how many weeks?

    Of course the big question will we be looking at similar/better/worse charts 24 hours from now?

    IF the big 3 are correct in holding that deep developing low pressure system in the western atlantic from a direct hit over the BI and send it SE and we do in fact see developing heights to our NE - it just goes to prove how stubborn the cold air over NW Europe is to shift.

    By looking at the charts (GFS/ECM), if the above does happen then I would fully expect cold air to flood the UK as suggested in the 120-144 timeframe as the hard fight as already been won.

    I hope that makes sense, still learning.

    EDIT: And to top it all offer I have 3cms on the ground tonight, all I was expecting was rain! Not bad for a lowland coastal location.

    Yorkshire, Lincolnshire And The Pennines Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    This is quite exceptional, after I saw the Beeb forecast this morning I saw the usual white snow graphics changing to blue as they headed towards northern lincolnshire. Further to this the Meto website gave the whole region Orange alert whilst NE Lincolnshire was the only one on the map in yellow - I did not expect this whatsoever!

    Incredible. Time to read comments on the ECM 12z run - find out whether it was good for cold. :good:

    Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rikki

    LOW CONFIDENCE! for next week!!!! :lol:

    ............Anyway I think personally a cold spell will come our way and within the next 48 hours things are going to become more certain.

    He said the second half of next week which is in the 7-11 day frame, so I would have to agree with Ian. Forecasting weather beyond 7 days is always difficult - at best you can form an opinion of what may lay ahead; affectionally on N-W this is called the the trend.

    We shall have to wait and see what will transpire over the next couple of days, but today's temperature is not as high as what was being shown on the tv forecasts last night. I remain unconvinced that temperatures will rise too much over the coming days - I certainly wouldn't call temperatures of 4-6c in February as mild, average yes, cold no, why people have to use the word Mild instead of the word Average I will never know. Even TV forecasters use the word far too much, what is wrong with Average?

    Current temp: 2C ... and thats a coastal temperature.

    Will 2009/2010 Be An Historic Winter?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think the answer to the thread question is quite simple.

    Unless the more populated areas of the UK see widespread snow beyond the amount which so far has been fairly 'typical' of a snowy winter here in the UK I think the answer will remain No.

    But, still like everyone countless posts - there is still plenty of time. Most people on here will agree March and April can bring about a wintry flavour from time to time.

    And to end, contrary to how meteorologists call Winter December through February purely for ease of statistics; winter actually runs till around the March 21st period in mother nature and thus today represent mid-winter in that context.

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