Richard Lake
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Posts posted by Richard Lake
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The 12z on the GFS is showing pretty much what I said it would on Monday; for the period Thursday-Sunday. The Low plunging further south than previously shown (on Monday) with winds tilting N/NE around the low resulting in the system pushing across the country - and hanging around long enough before the next cold front which is now shown to move in a more WNW trajectory as I also suggested. I guess after looking at all these charts over the last 3-4 years I have learnt something and it wasn't just wishful thinking!
At present (as the GFS rolls out) I can only see up to 102hrs - I will now make another educated guess - this low shown at 102hrs - (Edit: I predict that all that mild air) will run underneath the UK only affecting the extreme south coast of the UK and head straight into France. This will allow small background height rises to our NE which may eventually lead to GP's thoughts of an easterly (in some parts of Europe, but to an unknown extent) during the the second half of December.
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Just been outside for a sneaky cigarette and confirm it is snowing here! Wind is up, ground is frosty, starry sky, a whiffs of cloud about, but it is snowing here - just very very lightly!
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GFS 18z is a big upgrade in the next 4-5 days. Since Friday and up until the 12z of today, Wednesday was progged to be quite mild - the 18z is showing still mild, but the cold front is holding out until daylight Thursday morning and lasting til 3pm that very same day. Thursday night and into Friday morning is showing a fairly average Low piling into the North Sea with winds pulling into a near-straight Northerly. By Saturday morning mild air is beginning to move from the South up as far as the Midlands under a slack airflow. I suspect that the deep cold on Thursday/Friday that is spread across most of the country will mix out most of this mild air attempting to flood North. Hard to say what will happen next, but I rather suspect that winds will continue on a Westerly through to Saturday alternating between WNW and NW into Sunday potentially giving us yet another chance at a short-lived cold shot going into next week.
@ruzzi: If GFS keeps showing what it currently does I'd expect anywhere north of Leeds to see high winds and potential for snowfall increase significantly. However I keep thinking 'wishbone effect' in the back of my mind.
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@summerblizzard
Yeah, I suspected it would be, but interesting nonetheless. It will still it be a close call I feel though,
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Using the NetWeather CET values for this year and trying different test values for this December; this year is almost guaranteed to be the warmest in the entire CET series or as they like to say on TV 'since records began'. The CET for this December will have to fall below 0.6c IF it is not to take 1st place.
(4.14+6.97+7.2+12.42+12.91+14.76+16.03+16.12+15.71+13.02+9.94+0.6) / 12
Met Office CET Series: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt
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Well what a terrible set of model runs we are looking at right now. At the beginning of the week, Mon/Tues, it looked quite promising for snow over the weekend and into Monday. Now everything appears to have been diluted.
Sign of a potential easterly in la-la-land, until it enters the 96hr range I cannot buy into anything right now - especially against the background teleconnections.
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O.o
Its like something designed by a 4 year old. This constant dumbing-down of weather forecasts across the entire TV network is beyond a joke - this C4 'effort' is taking the you-know-what.
And 'they' say we are national that loves to talk about the weather - and we have to be subjected to this monstrosity. I remember a time when the content of a weather forecast within the schedule wasn't 75% about today's weather, 20% about tomorrow's weather and 5% devoted to 'what could happen'.
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It would depend on the frequency of the snowfall. Here last year most of the snow fell over 1 event; namely November 30th/1stDecember 2011. For the best part of that one day the major supermarkets were stuck with the skeleton staff from overnight shifts, most of the major banks didn't open, or if they did very late in the day - essentially the only traffic that dare venture onto the roads were HGVs, Jeeps and Range Rovers. Throughout that day the major roads were cleared through usage and some ploughing - so that the following day life was back to normal - ASSUMING you lived on or closer to a main road. The majority of roads were covered in thick snow and ice for up to 3 weeks - but no further significant snow fell so roads over time became more accessible due to slow melt and wheel tracks.
That will always be the over-riding factor. One-off events - life catches up if there is no significant top-ups. If throughout December 2010 there were numerous snowfall that would have been a different story altogether.
The councils are good at clearing major roads despite what is written about them.
I wasn't around in the years mentioned in this thread,but if there was repeatedly frequent heavy snow every other day then... no perhaps we couldn't cope. But there are many many millions of cars on the road these days and travelling further so roads would clear quicker - assuming people could get out their own side streets.
Getting out your own side street requires knocking on your neighbours door - but how many of you speak to your neighbour these days?
EDIT: However that last point, when everyone was in the same boat unable to leave their own homes - I spoke with people I had never spoken to before and people just generally dug themselves out. No-one can afford to miss more than one day off work!
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Boy it was sure cold last night...
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Actually both are 'facts'. Within meteorology for statistical purposes only Winter is classified as December, January and February. Outside this limited field the seasons fall in line with solstices.
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Frost here, perhaps for only the second time this season. Complete contrast to last year when the count was already 15+ and we had at least 2-3 inches of lying snow.
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@happydays
Hehe, I just looked at the latest GFS, I wouldn't be too eager to prepare the chopping block just yet. Interesting run at the extreme edge of FI.
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What will the largest snowfall event be like?
Not everyone uses centimetres ya know - even for us young ones (am 34) - inches in brackets would have helped enormously.
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I see the focus atm is very much on the mid-long term and not so much in the short term which I think is an oversight as things that happen in the short-term consequently have a knock-on effect.
Take this week for example, in the last few days GFS was progging deep oranges over us this week on the 850m temps and look what we have atm - just above average yes, but hardly mildly. Where is the sun? Seems set to continue throughout this week. I would not be surprised at all if the deep oranges progged next week will not materialise. I see a continuation of the cloud and mirk into next week with temperatures continuing to fall. Perhaps single digits countrywide. This in turn will have a knock-on effect on the following week. I think GFS is blind to see it atm - I think the ECM is taking this into account better.
In overview nothing to get excited about just yet - just a continual drop in average temperatures as we head through November.
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@Backtrack
And here we are again with another contrast.
Overnight temperature on my journey home from another gig, a constant 17C.
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@Backtrack
Where as here has been quite the opposite!
In fact probably the coolest night since... well can't remember, perhaps May I would have at a guess.
What a difference a clear starry night can make amongst the almost constant days of cloudy nights, just driven home and the car got down to 6C. Hardly unprecedented, but a far cry when compared to the '90s and the odd year of the 21st Century - when we often had to endure hot sticky summer nights.
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It wasn't "So wrong" - generally it was thought that there would be imports from France in the SE, and home grown storms in Eastern England, say around Lincolnshire to North Yorkshire. The home grown storms materialised further north, giving Tyneside a fantastic thunderstorm and an absolute deluge of rain and hail. Admittedly the French imports didn't show up, but I doubt that's what you're on about as they wouldn't affect anywhere NW of a line from the IoW to Norwich.
That maybe true to some extent, but there has already been torrential rainfall here, thunder and lightning, sometimes several times a minute. Perhaps not quite as intense as predicted? But pretty good nonetheless.
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boom, boom, boom, let me hear you say...
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@paulm
Hello ;p Is it raining there?
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@andy_leics22
Ha I thought I was the only one this far north posting anything happening, not that I would consider Leicester as northern. Decidedly quiet from posters in Northern England, are we just lucky/unlucky here and on the edge of the activity? Perhaps its a side-effect of living on the coast - heavy snow last winter, heavy rain this summer lol
Rain has eased off somewhat to moderate fall, but the wind is up. Last torrential rainfall here was over an an hour ago now. Looks like a typical day in another season, Autumn.
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Been raining heavy on and off for the last two hours. At one point the drains couldn't cope, but then it abruptly stopped. Looking at the direction the clouds where travelling earlier we seem to be getting lots of showers coming and building off the sea; as opposed to from the south. I guess those have yet to arrive. As for thunder and lightning, yes we have that too - ya know the typical British thunder and lightning affair; one flash at a time lol
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Barely a cloud in the sky here, although off in the distance they appear to be rolling in. Currently a sultry 31C!
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Hello,
Freakish weather here today, really freakish, anyone else witnessed what I can only describe as 'raining leaves'?
I know it sounds strange, but this is really weird, hundreds of dead sycamore leaves fell from the sky today when the wind picked up as these storm clouds approached. Not only once, but twice, it looked like it is/was snowing... yes its happening now as I type... very odd!
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Updated 17th February 2011:
:cc_confused:
Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by djrikki
Hi sorry left the house this afternoon. I wasn't commenting on what the models were currently showing post the weekend, but what I projected they might show beyond the weekend.