RabbitEars

120am view from my bedroom window. Large flakes, now eased back again to tiny ones. Elevation 100m asl

120am. Snow much larger flakes now. Everywhere white. Good depth. Have had to bring in rabbits as enclosure is in danger of collapsing under the weight of ice and then snow. Scrap the previous question... as it's already pivoting... the snow fall is answering the question.

Model question... please... Background...I'm in the Isle of Man and since 6pm (after the radar saying it was snow/sleet all day when actually it was rain) we are now getting pasted, started as wet snow but its been sticking for hours now. We have an Amber warning in place until 8am. Power has been out in two locations, buses can't serve some areas, roads closed. when is the pivot of the system likely to happen and what happens if the cold northerly flow interacts with the precipitation? In a nutshell, when is it going to get worse or will it stay the same? Thanks!

Follow up.. Power out in two locations in the west of the island. Buses not serving estates around Douglas and Onchan (east), too icy/snowy. Snow on the beach in Port Erin (south). Small tiny snow flakes falling consistently on a raw strong wind. Imaged from my back yard, gate, Rudolph and the same pegs from earlier for comparison. And this is all before the system pivots, what will happen if the northerly flow undercuts? It might get worse!?

We struggled all day, mostly sleet and rain and slushy stuff at all altitudes. Then at 6pm it just changed .. snow falling at almost all levels now. The Amber warning issued uesterday is coming to pass but later than I think they thought! Buses now not running in some areas. Roads closed. But still the government getting slammed on social media about a snain day! Can't win!

Following this... the government (we're a self governing Crown Dependency) has announced all schools and the college are closed for tomorrow, all government public counters will close at 12noon and residents are advised to WFH where possible and to drive to the conditions! https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid02VTpi3hfQjDgTJEvTCKEzFnFabNGBkzfMoGQEiyjQAQavHYw7u4e6KcJ5gy8TxPsNl&id=100067040923165 Estimate are 10cm locally to all levels and 20cm with drifting at higher elevations. They haven't said what height constitutes higher! Our tallest hill is Snaefell which is 2037ft. Excitingly waiting to see if this comes off! But I'll still have to work, even if it is from home! Booo hisss

The Isle of Man met office have gone Amber Island wide from noon tomorrow (Thursday) to 6am Friday!

Well the radar just showed a wintery shower, and hey Presto it was actually graupel here. Stuck to cars and shed roofs, melted on roads and pavements. So our local (Isle of Man) met office was right about, if it precipitates it'll be wintry! Third winteriness this season, December, January and now March... and it might get better on Thursday (depending on how far north the front moves with the low pressure as forecast)!

The Isle of Man seems to have slipped out of the stream... no more snow IMBY since this morning. Our met office at the airport seem to have advised services across the island that they should be able to run as close to normal as usual in the morning, even under an Amber ice and wintery shower warning!

Please can the Isle of Man stay in a streamer... its so exciting! Making my day stuck home with covid!

Isle of Man Many roads closed, all schools and college closed, Amber warning wintery showers and ice, buses and airport disruption. Advice is not to travel! Winter arrived thanks to Irish channel streamer. Image from my bedroom window. Sorely wanting to go out later when the roads are cleared but I'm self isolating with covid!

Cute little dusting here Douglas Isle of Man 300ft asl

Looking at the ensembles (available on this site only) for my location the average 2m temperature only increases (in the timeframe under discussion 19th ish) to what we are used to for December…. So it appears we’re not looking at warm (not bother with a coat) type of weather…. Just something more like we are used to for December…. Which isn’t too bad really considering how warm/hot this year has been overall.

It’s just been cold rain here. Very icy out but above freezing. (Douglas ASL 100m) some snow/winteriness over the tops. Snaefell mountain road A18 closed, but looking at the webcam it’s just a thin covering….

I'm not fussed about snow (well yes I am as I like it)... I'm more concerned that the vulnerablity of people already struggling with the energy cost crisis is going to increase. And that the public should be being told about how cold it will be, particularly if its below average.

Met office UK doesn't gather temperature for isle of man. I have access to our public forecast locally. I was talking about wider health warnings about cold.

If the temperatures are likely to be as cold as the Mod thread seems to imply, why are there no cold alert warnings coming out of public health England or others .... surely a big freeze is as much news as 40C heat wave was in the summer? People need to prepare for cold. People, livestock, pets etc can all die in cold weather. Thoughts? Will UK make announcements?

Nick please could you pop up a chart showing the shortwave of which you speak? I can't access the charts at the moment and am interested as to why and when it might disrupt.

That's a balanced point. Looking at the plots provided by others, the scatter widens perceptively by Monday / Tuesday 5th/6th... and they all show much colder uppers and 2m temps than the standard average, so trying to predict the minutiae of what will happen next weekend or next week is impossible. The trend according to most models seems to be blocking and alternative direction winds (ie not from the Western quadrant). So rather a change from last December. I truly enjoy reading all the posts here, so thank you to the ones that go to the trouble of explaining stuff.

Reading the mod thread... all very interesting (sometimes written for the novice and sometimes it reads like code!!). There seems to be a focus on the rainy windy atlantic flow we're in now... and a hope of some high latitude blocking... Much of the year's weather, as far as I understand it, has been generated by HLB, creating milder than long term average weather and some heat waves. It seems that when it's blocked, we want Atlantic and when it's a westerly Atlantic flow, we'd rather have a block!! Surely even in winter a block could give record mild temperatures? It's not all going to be crisp, frosty and cold, after such a record breakingly warm/hot year here in the UK and across Europe. I would love it to be cold, crisp, frosty with snow flurries. But we also have to consider high energy prices, people die in cold homes. Also if there's really cold weather and a huge demand for energy then utilities may end up having to ration energy... that would be equal in civil contingency measures to the emergency that is the ongoing pandemic! I think we (coldies) should be careful what we wish for!

Honourable member Sid and all others who are suffering increases in symptoms and trouble on the medical front, I do pray and hope that you will all be feeling better soon. Normal summers are bad enough with hay-fever, asthma and the likes, this one is much worse with the wildfire smoke (and next-door-but -one's BBQ). Always good to have GP practice on speed dial, oh and the emergency services (for those times when you come across an accident or a fire or an alarm of some kind).

I concur honourable Jane with your sentiments in respect of the writings of his Honorable Tom. They are but a joy to read; so eloquent. I, too, am lurking here routinely in the hopes that the weather gods also read the informative posts and prayers of their subjects, and lessen the heat. Isle of Man back garden Douglas in the shade at ground level topped an unofficial 31.1'C. Currently 20.5'C. Indoors it's still 27'C in my bedroom, curtains have been closed all day, window is now open but breeze is blowing the wrong way to come in through it. There was at least one wildfire again here today. Poor wildlife! I suspect we will have thunder to end this spell. I hope we don't have flooding!

Isle of Man went first... in place last Friday as our reservoirs are at less than 70%. Typically its rained each day since, however only providing an estimated 1% of usable water. I feel as I'd I've been saying it's been dry since the beginning of the year and only now (after the extreme heat which didn't break any local records) is someone starting to listen! (Not that I've been saying anything to Amy official type people!)

Of course Ronaldsway is by the sea... so will show a recorded temperature a little lower than inland. Forecast 28C. Current recorded 25C. Currently 24.7C in the shade at ground level... literally... in my rabbits' enclosure.

Is there anyone like me who is thinking that this year has been rather dry? Could we be looking at government issued water restrictions later on during the summer? Can anyone show me any rainfall data for North West England that might include Ronaldsway (IOM)(EGNS). I'm not a lover of extremes! But the pleasantly warm dry ish days are nice with the light evenings (til gone 10pm here)