RabbitEars

No rainfall totals on that spreadsheet for Ronaldsway... very disappointing! Although does show that most point are drier than average ... if you look at the percentage rainfall (against the climatology). Yes there's the rest of the month to go but with a high pressure in charge that's not going to increase the rainfall. Drought by the summer?

With all this high pressure and lack of precipitation (snow or otherwise) one would hope that the water utilities companies are keeping a good eye on reservoir levels. January is traditionally quite a wet month... we haven't really seen this. In fact it looks like on average November and December 2021 were drier too.... where's our rainy days gone?

Two named storms... Arwen 25 November 2021 and Barra which on 7 December caused a lot of storm surge damage here in the Isle of Man. But yes I am surprised at the lack of mobile weather... I do like it calm and mild enough to get out and about... more sun would be nice... but the models look a bit cloudy!

I've asked this in the volcano thread but I'll ask here too... what, if anything, might the effect be on our weather or even the northern hemisphere's pattern from the large eruption in the Pacific Ocean? And what is the likely time lag?

This is truly astonishing and to have multiple captures of satellite images! Poor people of Tonga and surrounding areas! Can anyone make a guess as to whether this eruption will affect the weather back in the UK and if so what sort of lag there'd be? I do hope that if emergency aid is needed in the areas it arrives quickly!

Hi knocker sorry newbie question... can you please explain what you mean and what the supporting chart shows? Cheers.

Dear Knocker and Phil thank you for these useful clear appraisals of what you see in the models and their trends.

That's harsh! All I was asking for was a quick precis of the situation as shown by the models. On most other days in the evenings I would trawl all the pages to find out the main gist of the models. However just for once I don't have the time today.

OK because I can't trawl 10+ pages of ramp and moan in here during working hours, can anyone provide either a link to a clear synopsis created on the thread, or a brief overview of what is being projected please? Short sentences like "this is a coldies wonderland" or "boom", or "wait for more runs"... don't help our learning and understanding! Cheers

Hello. I have been really enjoying reading this thread and growing my understanding... please can it be continued (and not just by Knocker who is such a stalwart on these forums).. there are plenty of knowledgeable forum members ... surely some of them can hop over from the mod thread (winter chase thread) to post some input in here?

So having read the most recent couple of pages of posts on the model thread, it seems that a return to milder than average (which admit it is where the weather has been for much of autumn) is less likely than remaining average or a touch below. I wonder if they look back and see if that 98mph storm down the east coast was predicted two weeks ago? Would this help to show that FI is about 4 days out? The actual surface weather (eg snaw, freezing fog, frost etc.), as we know, can't be detailed more than about 48hrs ahead. Seems the next focus point is probably Thursday for something cooler than average. Here many trees down and roads closed overnight as we topped 70mph gusts. No snow (some fleeting hail yesterday ahead of the wind). Bright sunny windy and bitterly cold. Current sheltered shaded temperature 4C.

A drop of 6C will make it feel cold, given that we've got used to it being so mild!

Having read all the recent posts and seen the charts (not that I understand a great deal) on the MAD thread, would it not be nice to just have some colder temperatures... maybe some weak late autumn / early winter sunshine, crisp frost mornings... Do we have to have a big freeze.... I think it will cool down - so a drop from a high today of 11C to something more seasonal would be nice. Some of the “boom” charts could create shocking cold weather warnings, with severe impacts on society... do we really want to be digging our cars and vulnerable neighbours out of snow and ice just for the kicks of getting our lust for snow satisfied?

Nice article thank you @Jo Farrow

Thanks @Nick F for this excellent blog. I learnt lots! And note that you’ve amended the slight descriptive error about warmer vs colder ENSO.