Hoghtonwhite

Snow symbols on the iPhone weather app for Thursday have been disappearing and appearing back so much over the past few days, and on my app I have a fair share of Lancashire towns/villages at different elevations and each have been consistent with each other. As for met office app, the temperature forecast looks encouraging, and they don’t often tend to show their precipitation symbols until 2/3 days prior, even as close as 24 hours which is why they are just showing cloudy. However, when they do appear, the met office normally do get their timings and locations spot on. As ever with these lows coming in from the west, I expect each run to track them more southerly. This has happened time and time again in my past 10 years of model watching. So come Thursday, I think we’re going to be watching for breakaway deposits/hefty snow showers as the winds turn north easterly. If I remember rightly, I think it was the BFTE in 2018 where a system coming from the west had my location down for heavy snow, for 7 days prior and then guess what 24 hours before, it was modelled to reach as only as north as Cheshire. I’d love to be wrong but I think the whole region could end up missing out on the big band of precipitation on Thursday. However the positive is if that is the case, we’ll be sitting in much colder air consequently so anything that does fall out of the sky should most certainly be snow. Get well soon Kasim.

And just as luck would have it, we have the first snow symbol on the met office for a location closest to mine, although this is saying weds morning.

Hi guys, this is the first time this season i'm looking in this thread and would expect it to get busier through this week. Judging from both GFS and ECM, we seem to have the potential for some SNOW in the North West, even at lower levels through Thursday and into Friday. Would love to see the more knowledgeable thoughts on this, @Kasim Awan? Have a feeling I'll be getting the sledge down from the loft this week for some sledging up on Tockholes come next weekend. I know all can still change but the potential is there folks.

No one or any model predicted December 2010 mate. Northerlies were only picked up 5 days in advance. Similar to now. Impossible to know what’s gonna happen after this weekend.

I think first thing first here. Let’s get the cold in first before we start making assumptions about what’s happening next week. More often than not with cold spells, once the cold arrives the mild air incursions always get pushed back and the cold can often intensify with more reloads of it. During the deep cold of December 2010, the forecast beyond the 17th December in Preston, Lancashire was Maximum daily temps of 4/5 degrees for the next 7 days. A snowstorm came during the evening of the 17th, then for days after we were only seeing maximums of 1 degree, and it was down to -12 at night. The forecast changed dramatically and the snow lasted until after Christmas Day.

I can’t believe what I’m seeing on the 18z. If that plays out to be correct, we’ll be saying hello winter by next weekend. History tells that definitive cold spells only appear 1 week in advance at the most, usually out of nowhere.

I am now starting to see this high pressure next week dwindling on latest GFS run, as I expected. The run even ends with a cold northerly bringing snow showers to Lerwick islands. I feel autumn really is starting to descend on us now. Northern half of of Sweden/Finland to receive their first heavy snow of the season tomorrow.

ECM much further north.

ECM!!!!! Looks like the north west has finally won.

This winter has really baffled me to be honest. I can’t get my head around it. In December we had the most sustained cold spell since the 2010 spells yet only saw frozen white slush, and now this set up has been perfect for Irish Sea snow and all we’ve managed to see tonight is Graupel stuck to the ground. A winter I will remember for cold (most of the north west has lost its Cordyline palm tree population). As for snow, it’s been absolutely rubbish. Making me wonder whether I will be following next winter’s snow potential as much. And also, can the met office just get a forecast correct for once? They were giving heavy snow symbols for my area through the afternoon and evening and saw none of it. Yet in both 2010 north west snow events, they gave absolutely nothing away. I even remember the symbols showing sleet showers for midnight on the day of the 17th Dec 2010. I’m done.

This must be the only place on earth where you are watching/hoping a little snow shower will hit your area and could only be your only real flakes of the winter!! Yet it does feel rewarding. At least with this cold snap, it may well not be as prolonged as December but we seem to have the convection/moisture moving in off the Irish Sea with the temps already well cold enough which is guaranteeing that anything falling from the sky will be snow no matter what level above sea you are and how far away from coast, not making a single difference. The issue with Decembers cold spell is that it came in behind a wet and mild weather system with back edge snow that then freezed for two weeks with dry cold arctic air. This time, we have got the cold in first. Also very hopeful for the region tomorrow eve. I am happy with this eve’s covering just before I go to bed. I reckon most of the region could be making up to a whiteout (not by any means thick) by the morning with the snow showers and frost combining. IMG_4204.MOV

I just want to say a huge thank you to @Kasim Awan. He kept the dream alive for us all on the eve of the snowfall a few nights ago for us in the North West. I didn’t actually think we would see any snow, thanks to recent let downs in years however not only did it snow, it has stayed on the ground for days in what has been a truly memorable cold spell. I’ve not seen ice days like these in December since 2010. After going to Clog & Billycock in Pleasington on Sat night (loads of snow) I had a great day sledging at Tockholes on Sunday (only 10 mins drive from my house) and here we could have been in the Alps or Lapland by the way it looked! And even my road at relatively low ground has looked like a road that you would see in Canada and Russia at this time of year. Just wow. Here’s some pics below…. IMG_3586.MOV IMG_3563.MOV IMG_3571.MOV

It was raining when I woke up around half 1 but now everywhere has tuned rather white again. Must have had a snow shower. Hopefully more to come

Christ, this is the first time ever in my life that I have seen rain fall onto hard frosty surfaces. You’d think the frost would go first before the rain like in the past. Very strange.

What’s wrf Kasim?

Well I’ve just bought a couple of sledges from B&Q Bamber Bridge. I’m feeling quite optimistic for a sledge this weekend. Tockholes springs to mind. If not, then hopefully later in the winter.

Mate, go on the Met office website weather map. They have Blackburn right in the sweet spot for snow. Also at this range, met office weather app is mostly always accurate and it is showing light snow through the night and tomorrow morning for Blackburn area.

Anyone slightly concerned with the overnight temps for snowfall?

Just driven over the Irlam Bridge on M6 just north of Lymm services. A nice welcome home to the north after a long drive home from Southampton Port. IMG_3431.MOV

What are you thinking about Preston/Chorley area central Lancashire Kasim?

What’s this bbc forecast that people are talking about? I’ve just watched the latest north west forecast published in the last 50 mins? The young lady mentioned nothing about snow tonight. However, the met office forecast map looks interesting for my area (central Lancs)

So fascinating seeing 05th Jan 2010 and 17th/18th December 2010 snow events talked on here with possibilities of a repeat tonight. As mentioned above, the most striking thing for me about these events is that simply were not forecasted anywhere near to be as severe as they were by mainstream media/weather models. My school was closed for 10-14 days after the Jan event. Even the cold temps the following days due to lasting snow cover we’re getting down to -18. That wasn’t forecasted at all. The early morning of the 5th started off as a dry hail, rapidly turning into consistent heavy snow that lasted until around until around 4pm. Deep snow with extremely cold temps following behind. This wasn’t your powdery snow though and a snowman was built. Fast forward 11 months, the evening of the 17th December 2010 was even more interesting for me. I remember being at school during the day (Friday) looking at the evening forecast, which had sleet then a heavy snow symbol for midnight (again under-estimated) I remember being on slightly higher ground around 4pm, the overhead sky had a very unusual look and the sun was trying to shine through the light cloud as it was setting. Interestingly, in the distance I could see the first of the snow clouds over the Irish see just before dark. These weren’t your normal looking clouds. It gave me a sense that something quite unusual could be on the horizon. And then there it was, some of the heaviest and deepest snowfall that I have ever seen in my area throughout the evening that day. Both m6 and 61 were iced over with thick snow and lorries jackknived. What I liked about this event is that the day after, frequent heavy snow showered rolled in behind the main event. However, the snow type this year due to the severe coldness was a powdery type and was unable to make a snowman. My dad checked the car outtdoor temp monitor the morning after and it displayed -12. Magical scenes. I really do feel on these events that the weather gods really were looking after us in the north west. Could a similar thing happen tonight? All I’ll say is that @Kasim Awan I’m glad that you live in the North West my mate. I always find your posts very unique and informative. Thank you sir.

What an absolute absurd statement obviously you must be a southerner I take it? I’m in north west England and have had daytime snow to low levels from a north westerly in December 2017. Also, if I remember correctly the major snow we had in 2010 that came in from the north west, even made it down to London and closed the airports. Lol.

This Iberian low looks like it’s going to end up in the Antarctica at this rate

What the hell is going on with GFS. We’ve been led up the garden path again.