CoxR

it couldn't me more clear that the ECM is wrong. I wouldn't even be surprised if we see some eastern areas getting up to 38 on Wednesday

I meant not quite hot enough for 40 degrees, of course the record is almost certain to go

Widespread 40's are back on ICON 18z. I think solutions showing a more southerly tracking low are more feasible than what the ECM is showing. Is there a chance that the low keeps correcting southwards, the most intense 850s avoid us and as a result temperatures don't reach 40 C, but Wednesday gets thrown into the mix as another hot/very hot day in eastern counties?

The ECM ensemble mean temperature at 850 hPa appears to have jumped about 1 and a half deg C from the 0z to the 6z The maximum mean temperature at 850 hPa for Torquay is now 23.8 C on the 6z up from 22.4 C for the 0z

I've got to drive from Birmingham to Dorset on Tuesday and it will be my first time driving on the motorway

looking at that GEFS ensemble suite alone, you'd put the chance of breaking the UK record at about 94% with about a 75% chance of exceeding 40 C locally

Wow...

does anyone know whether you can find model verification stats for, say, the last 2 weeks and if so where you can find them? Might be somewhat useful for determining the model that will have the best handle on this situation going forward...

I've heard speculation that the GFS, since its recent updates, may be overestimating the strength of the soil moisture-temperature feedback whereby a warm airmass causes increased evaporation of moisture from the soil, resulting in latent and sensible heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which in turn causes more evaporation causing further warming of the air and so on. This may account to some extent for the apparent relative ease that the GFS has in pushing max temperatures well into their 40s in recent runs compared to other models. Having said, the sort of 'plume' scenario we're seeing from the GFS and its ensembles is clearly not without pretty strong support from virtually all other models and therefore, regardless of whether the potential bias in the GFS is explaining some of the unfathomable max temperatures we've seen today or not, record breaking temperatures do seem to be very much on the cards. Whether or not 40 degrees will be exceeded is far more controversial, but not impossible in my eyes

does anybody have a rough estimate as to what a 43 C max would be in reality when accounting for the GFS' biases?

looks like the ec control might've gone for a reload of the plume similarly to the GFS op

Huge downgrade from the GFS 18z op and ensemble

Oh my good lord

The easterly no longer has much support from the GEFS

wow at this 18z run

wouldn't this just likely result in a chilly April...

Been a complete non-event here around Coventry and I've been made to look a bit of a mug to all those who I'd warned. Very underwhelming

is the storm tracking a fair bit further south than predicted? I would've expected to start seeing some proper gusts by now in Coventry...

ICON has finally caved by the looks of it

ICON has been remarkably consistent with its south shifted evolution compared to other models... Just as it was at Christmas

That's a pretty sizeable shift in the GEFS mean from the 12z to the 18z...

To my untrained eye, the configuration of the troposphere and stratosphere doesn't look too dissimilar to that at the same stage in Feb 2018 - and two weeks or so later, the BFTE occurred. Though I'm not sure to what extent the 2018 BFTE was troposphere led i.e. from the high amplitude phase 7 MJO, or stratosphere led? February 2018 500hpa: February 2018 10hpa: GFS 12z 500 hpa: GFS 12z 10 hpa:

Potential split mid Feb?