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CoxR

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Everything posted by CoxR

  1. CoxR
    What do people make of the prospects of PV disruption coming into play in February?
  2. CoxR
    GFS verification stats 5 days in advance for Northern Hemisphere compared to ECM. Sounds about right!
  3. CoxR
    -AO is characterised by high pressure in the Arctic
  4. CoxR
    Big flip away from any cold wintry solutions overnight in GEFS
  5. CoxR
    when I say near miss I mean more in terms of snow potential. The runs still look very dry on the whole. Also, based on the phantom northerly that is currently being corrected east and flattening out, which relied on similar synoptics, I'm not holding out much hope. But we'll see!
  6. CoxR
    this has near miss after near miss written all over it...
  7. CoxR
    06z GFS ensemble suite 18z GFS ensemble suite What a difference 12 hours makes GFS seemingly performing very poorly so far this winter - at least for our neck of the woods!
  8. CoxR
    based on general shift eastwards over last 2 GFS runs, in line with every other model, it is far far more likely for the high to sit over the top of the UK
  9. CoxR
    all models looking pretty
  10. CoxR
    tbf, I don't think even the GFS 12z offers up much snow potential
  11. CoxR
    seems like there is a general eastward shift of the storm and the high in the ensembles, so a less snowy suite overall probably?
  12. CoxR
    do the American and Canadian models have similar biases? I've noticed so far this winter they've tended to lead us on in similar ways at similar points in time before eventually dropping the ideas - first december cold spell, then potential blizzard for the southern half of the country and now this
  13. CoxR
    looks like a downgrade to me, looking through perturbations
  14. CoxR
    AO does seem to be trending more negative across models...
  15. CoxR
    chances of a deep and prolonged cold spell seem to be getting progressively downgraded within the GFS ensembles unfortunately
  16. CoxR
    Interesting - pretty good signal for Atlantic Ridge from extended ECM today 16th onwards
  17. CoxR
    Think GEM ensembles, similarly to ECM, are hinting at the possibility of something akin to GFS but showing more of a variety of possible solutions than GFS currently.
  18. CoxR
    GFS 6z ensemble looks good to me!
  19. CoxR
    this ECM run looks better to me so far
  20. CoxR
    Ensemble looking very interesting. Although, I do expect ensembles as well as the op to swing about over the next week as they try to resolve evolution of the high
  21. CoxR
    I'm expecting the op to flip flop all over the place over the next week or so while the model tries to resolve the evolution of the high. This run is best case scenario.
  22. CoxR
    anyone know why the GFS ensemble diagrams aren't uploading atm?
  23. CoxR
    think he was looking at the 0z
  24. CoxR
    ensembles increasingly beginning to show below average temperatures throughout first half of this month. January is far from a write-off.
  25. CoxR
    quite a few perturbations picking up on it as well. Will be v. interesting if GEM sticks with the solution
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