smich

Hi all, My seven year old has just hit me with a question I can't quite answer! He asks; if a hurricane force storm formed in the CENTRAL Pacific, would it be a Hurricane or a Typhoon? Any ideas? Steve M

I thought you were supposed to get a cold in snowy conditions! "Don't stay out in the cold too long, son, or you'll catch chickenpox" Steve M

LOL Paul, I can only imagine the grief you must get... ... and how difficult it must be to leave the family for a long time. Combine that with how far you have had to travel every evening to find some snow in the last two weeks.....your missus must be pretty peed off!!!! Steve M

Stu, you are an absolute effing star mate and your missus too. If you'd had kids it would all be different and the world would be a lesser place!!! Great documentary, great footage, a human element....perfect. Should be required viewing for all those interested in storm chasing! Steve M

Spoilsport! Steve M

Snowing in Barnet for the last half hour or so, not big flakes, but plenty of them. Starting to settle. Steve M

Yes, a textbook Thames Streamer now. Winds lined up perfectly! Steve M

I believe that the Japanese language has something like 30 words for "snow" ! smich

Great idea, and will be popular I'm sure. Not so sure about the "onthesnow" link though. I selected my destination this winter (Canazei in Italy), only to find it is closed, 0 cms of snow, last update........last April! They actually have the best snow levels for decades at this time of year, according to the resort webcams! Steve M

Yes, we're heading out to Val di Fassa in the Dolomites on 27th December. It would take an amazing increase in temps to erode such a fantastic early season base, and the snow making facilities there are second to none. Really really looking forward to skiing this year! Thanks for the link to those mouth watering pics! Steve m

Hi Jackone, looking forward to your blogs again this season. Could you include Italy please. I'm off to the Dolomites over Xmas and they can have a very different scenario to the western Alps of France. Here's to a good season. Looks like another bit of good early season cover - shame it's too early to last! Steve M

Lovely pic James! It reminds me of one I took a couple of years back that got through to the final of the Netweather Photo competition in Dec 2006: 5th pic That was taken on a lovely misty, frosty morning. Steve M

Cookie, Consider yourself forgiven! :lol: My son James got up first thing this morning to check Kyle and immediately predicted CAT1, possibly 2. He's only 6 - I must try and get him an interview at the NHC! Still over warm water, and expect it to intensify later today. Steve M

You're welcome Cookie <_< Steve M

I think it's due to the fact it's travelling quite fast. Good chance of some strengthening in the short term whilst still over the warm Gulf stream, but when it emerges beyond the waters are a lot cooler. However, as it's heading North quite fast, significant weakening is unlikely to occur before the predicted landfall. Steve M

Yes GW, the most interesting of which, would perhaps be Vince in October 2005, which never headed West atall! Steve M

The North Sea is very shallow, which would explain why it gets so bad. Also, Hurricanes occur in the tropics, whilst a storm in the North Sea would be quite a bit colder, especially in winter! Steve M

Morning everyone. An interesting day ahead! So it seems Ike, instead of intensfying over the warm water, has simply grown instead! Carboyhdrates instead of protein!? What an enormous storm. Let's hope the evacuation is goes smoothly; they did leave it rather late. Steve M

I agree, TWS re; short term forecasts but would add "even then on a very short timescale". It seems laughable that this "identikit" method of forecasting is udes on such a localised scale. If you were to look for a similar GLOBAL synoptic set up to the current one (at any given moment), I suspect you would search for a very long time! Hence any long range forecast would be doomed from the outset. Steve M

Evening, Without sounding pessimistic for Josephine's prospects, it's fair to say that she has a lot of ground to cover, and areas of cooler water, and certainly some windshear to overcome. When a storm forms this far east, it's rare to survive the whole journey across the Atlantic. I'm much more concerned about Ike, who is looking very organised at the mo'. Steve M

Yep, it's really bombing now. Would probably upgrade that Stormtrack to Cat 4 BEFORE it reaches Cuba, given it's Cat 3 already, only two thirds of the way there! Assuming land interaction doesn't affect it too much, it then passes over the loop current and would maintain Cat 4 status at the very least over the Southern Gulf. They should start evacuating threatened areas now. Steve M

Hi all, Looks like a big one this time. Despite the storm's size, the serious heat content in the Caribbean Sea at the moment doesn't preclude a dreaded Pinhole Eye forming over the next 12 hours or so. Steve M

Hi all, Looking at the radar, track seems to be NNW, so a lot of warm water before landfall....we often forget the energy provided by the sun to these storms, so I expect strengthening to stall somewhat overnight, before picking up again tomorrow - almost certain to be a cat 2 storm within 24hrs given the environment. smich Wow! Just loaded up the visible loop from the NHC site ------- that's a wrap! smich

Hi Neil, It's been 10 years or so since I was over in that part of the world, but I'm sure climate won't have changed much since then! We saw quite a few storms win our two week roam and that was in late summer, even seeing a good T-storm whilst high up in the Rockies. Almost anywhere in that region, the temps should be high enough to brew up a decent storm. Monument Valley was a real highlight - massive storm, lightning striking the tops of the buttes, fantastic. Like Roger, I'd recommend Bryce Canyon, Zion Nat. Park, Arches Nat. Park, and I would also add Lake Powell, with Glen Canyon Dam - really beautiful. You can take a boat trip to Rainbow Arch which is magnificent. I'm sure you'll find more than enough to see and visit, and there may even be some severe weather thrown inland by an East Pacific Hurricane! One tip - while driving, try to keep your eyes off the scenery and on the road! Have a great trip Steve M (smich)

Just to add my own thanks, it's been gripping stuff following the chase this year, even without a great understanding of what's happening and why, storm wise. I was very close to going this year, and will certainly be in the frame for next year. (Ironically, the big reason for not going this tear was my six year old, James. He is now desperate to go next year! The youngest ever Netweather storm chaser?! Could happen. He's a dab hand at accessing my Netweather Xtra to check the rainfall radar and lightning detectors! Thanks again, and well done to all. Steve Mich