smich

Thanks John, what a breath of fresh air! Threads like yours help me keep the faith in the forum when the so called "Model Analysis" threads are wandering off topic. Another variable I would add to your analysis are the AO and NAO ensembles, which are looking quite favourable. (Although I don't necessarily think they are the holy grail some describe - the height rises implied might not verify in the perfect position for the UK!) Below average temps for the remainder of the month may not please some if there isn't widespread snow, but a below average CET for the month overall would be a rare in it's own right! smich

Yes, a beautifully clear sky last night and Holmes still easily visible with the naked eye. Thru good binoculars it appears as a roughly spherical "smudge" and looks a little like a globular cluster. smich

Paul, it's amazing to me...so many of these report threads this year - you've been quite disappointed it seems! "Today didn't pan out"..."We were disappointed by..." ..."We ended up in the low risk..." But every single one of these bleak threads has had at least one photo that has had my jaw dropping to the floor, be it mammatus, wall clouds, gust fronts, lightning etc. If next year turns out to be better than this, I'll be a happy camper! smich

Hi Audmun, What a terrific write-up. Having put my name down for next year already, it was great to get such an insight into storm-chasing from a layman's point of view. Like you, the prospect of the American heartland, and some of those less touristy parts of the States, has a lot of appeal for me. To be honest, if I see little more than a few thunderstorms, I will have had a good trip just touring around. I think your appraisal is a good template for coping with expectations! Glad you had such a great time. Here's to hoping I win the lottery and get the time and money to go back out there on a whim, just because the models are looking favourable...! Paul S, you have a very understanding bank manager/wife/son/daughter/boss........... smich

Hi Supacell, A few years back, I was touring the SW states and National Parks in September with my brother - we saw loads of storms, including a cracker in Monument Valley. Lightning hitting the buttes...fantastic. I had no knowledge of storm factors back then and must have struck lucky I guess... Looking at the prices for storm chasing you quote, I must say that Net-weather's deal of 2 weeks for £1500 + flights and food sounds like a bargain! Which is why I've signed up for next year already! See you there! smich

These pics of Tornados, Supercells, Mammatus, Shelf clouds, Wall clouds are all very impressive. But when are we going to see a pic of a Big Texan T-Bone?! Smich

Hi PP 3 degrees above average is unusual, whatever month it is! I think he just forgot to mention how the unusual is becoming usual in this day and age. smich

Hi all, Trying to steer things away from the "whats in the UK and what isn't" tack emerging here, I was amused by the beeb's Tomasz Schaffernaggerwothisname saying that April's 3 degree+ anomaly was a "once in a blue moon" event. According to Hadley, I make it 4 of the last 11 months have recorded such an extraordinary event. I think we may be one of those countries affected more by warming. Maybe it's the Gulf Stream ,temps, I dunno. I just think that whilst GLOBAL average temps may rise by just a degree or so, that still means that some regions will rise more than others. It's a bleak prospect... smich

NL, you're a star!!!!!!! That must have been magnificent to see. smich

Wow! Good to see things working out well over there. Isn't there someone who could photoshop the shelf cloud pics into one long panorama??(with permission of course) It would be beyond me, sadly! smich

Hi kold, I thought closed circulation was when the convection was more extensive and unbroken, or maybe it's just the fact that the system is spinning around itself, but I'll have bow to your much more superior knowledge on that! The LP still looks very impressive, not sure if it will be upgraded now though, perhaps it will depend on how much longer it will remain over the water. smich

Hi Kold, yes, things are starting to brew and this system certainly gives some encouragement! I noticed a couple of storms formed in a similar location last summer (rather than drifting across the Caribbean Sea. Storm Floater 4 is up and running on the NHC satellite page, and shows the circulation well, even if it's not closed. smich

Paul, you forgot one very important item: an umbrella!! Have a great trip everyone and stay safe. Smich

I'm so sorry DS! I think I was confused by Louby's post shortly after. Thankfully you got the jist! Smich

Crikey, the standard of photos this month beggars belief! That Snowy Owl, Louby...I'm speechless. John C, you've been practising with your "fish eye" lens?!! Well done everyone. Smich

Hi all, I'm entering this one on behalf of my brother. I wish I'd entered it the "Best Snowman" comp a few weeks back, but there you go. It won't win, I expect, because if you look closely it's a bit X-rated. But what a lovely smile! Some fantastic entries again this month - well done everyone. smich

Well, I guess I'm one of those weak minded types, because I found the Al Gore film compelling and last night's programme quite convincing too!! :unsure: Thank you PM3 for all those links and references - plenty for us all to read there. I'm reminded of the question I gave you for your climate blog a month or two back ---- "What should we make of the media's handling of the GW issue?"!!!!! Whatever the arguments for and against, it has to be said that the jury is still out, and will be for a long time if politics is going to interfere with science. It seems the universe is made of just 3 things: energy, matter and enlightened self interest. smich

Fantastic selection - well done to everyone. These five have a real "wow" factor to them, I think: PS3 potsy2 OON2 Hilton1 ESSAN1 smich

Hi all, Yippee! About 10, maybe 12cms here in Barnet so far and still coming down sometimes quite hard. Net weather radar shows the front is very slow moving now (Carinthian suggested a "Quasi Stationary Front" last night - might be a good call. More stronger pulses forming on the back edge of the front near London and heading my way... I have my son here at work with me - his school is closed - but we're going sledding this afternoon.! smich

I just mentioned this on the general cold discussion! All us lucky NW Extra subscribers will be quids in tonight smich

All those lucky people with Netweather Xtra, check out the 5 minute radar... ....the band of ppn has appeared!!! Looks impressive! A night of lampost watching in store... smich

I agree with John Holmes' "zeroing in" idea. Isle of Wight, Lincoln, Reigate, Luton...... ....Barnet! Woohoo! smich

That's a really useful Sat image, mate... ...if you're ScottiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me smich

80 miles??? On one run? At T42??? Get a grip, man! STILL plenty of room for manouvre even at this close range! smich

Evening folks! Lots to look out for tonight: 1: The imminent frontal event (for whoever benefits!) 2: The Second Salvo on Saturday - if upgraded further, could be a major event? 3: The longer term outlook - height rises upgraded to our NE , spreading west over Greenland. 4: And that's just by T144!!!!!!!!! Terrific times for model watching.... smich