smich

We had -4.1 at 6am here in Barnet - a few light flakes in the air, nothing major just yet! Anyone thinking of Netweather Xtra radar, just do it. Updated every 5 minutes, knock spots off Meto and Meteox, it also covers Europe so you can watch the showers forming over the North Sea! I also use the postcode zoom a lot. smich

- 1.3 here in Barnet, dewpoint - 2.2 Looking forward to the next week..... smich

For North London, I'm reckoning some sleet/snow Weds late afternoon/evening, clearing over night (bitterly cold), a few scattered snow showers Thursday, becoming more prolonged into Friday. I'd be pleased with 10cms. smich

Things really are getting exciting now, although I'm tempted to wish for a pre-Xmas breakdown. The travel disruption given the amount of trips visiting family etc is bad enough as it is. Add a couple of feet of snow and it will be hell! Latest runs have been upgrading the short term but downgrading the long term - this could be a blesssing in disguise. smich

This incredible appetite for constant upgrades and Armageddon synoptics ESPECIALLY in December astonishes me. Some of you are simply too greedy. smich

You've hit something there, NS! Putting yourself in someone else's shoes. On numerous occasions I've seen the -10c isotherm move over a thousand miles in one run over scandinavia and Svalbard! smich

Nasty. "Let he who is without sin cast the first stone." Where's Nick Sussex??!! Putting his visitors to bed I hope and then we can get some good sensible comments on the model battle! I must admit, I thought the spell of upgrades was over. It simply couldn't get better, especially for so early in the season. And now, at T150 we have the almost circular Greenland High, flow off the continent, snow etc Model watching has never been so exciting. smich

I think we need to recognise here, that we are not the people that designed these models, or operate them. We do not have that inside knowledge. As such, we should not really be commenting on anything "inherently" wrong with them. Just how they verify. smich

Ha! GFS not budging one little inch. Why, when one model varies so much (ECM) people hang their hats just one run escapes me. GFS ( and even more the GFS parallel) and also the UKMO have been quite uncompromising for a few days now. One model is going to end up with egg on it's face here and my money is on it being the Euro smich

Because it's guessing. All the models are. They try to predict a future that is chaotic. ECM has been inconsistent, but has a history of "correcting " the GFS in the short time frame. However, the GFS parallel has been rock solid for days, and I suspect it stands a good chance of being right because it's for want of a better term, newest! Equally, the extraordinary NAO and AO forecast must surely throw a spanner in the modelling works? So to imply "it's all over" is absolutely ridiculous. Bonkers. It's absolutely fascinating to watch how the runs ebb and flow, trends emerging and fading. The only thing that spoils it are the posts that ride on one run. smich

Excellent update GP - thanks. I still can't get over those -AO Ensembles. -5 or -6 SD might be a rather conservative estimate I reckon! smich

I'm tempted to say "nailed on' but I won't just yet. However what we are seeing currently at say T84 has been showing run after run after run for at least two days, maybe three. And that's every model - excellent agreement now. Could ALL the models backtrack now, within 48 hours of it all kicking off? Unlikely. Hats off to the GFS especially. These charts were appearing in FI two weeks ago and have appeared ever since. -NAO and an absolutey tanked -AO (off the chart) = Holy Grail. smich

Fantastic output again, but I think the models will struggle with the evolution of this cold spell. One reason being the AO ensembles: http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif I've never seen them tank like that - way way off the bottom of the chart. I know it's only one element of the data suite, but I'm not sure that will be a factor the models can readily solve? Amazing charts currently, whether they're right or not! Steve M

That is just ridiculous - never ever seen that before. Steve M

You know what? (And this is going to sound silly) The block is too big and too round! At T144 it almost circular and can be attacked by shortwaves anywhere really. I prefer my blocks sausage shaped! It's a very fragile setup - the ebb and flow of the block varies wildly with each run, and while the trend is in the right direction for coldies, we have at least 3 days before you can say a decent snow event is nailed on. Fingers crossed! Smich

Great stuff everyone! Utter despair at the GFS downgrade, then the UKMO and ECM induce total euphoria! The model viewing this evening has been more gripping than the hands on my old Action Man! Steve M

Hi everyone, My son James, 7, and I have been planning to do our temperature/rainfall graph for the winter months again, but I couldn't get the graph paper until this weekend, so we've missed the first few days readings. Could anyone in the London area provide their own readings for December so far? We can use those to populate the graph up to today. Would be most appreciated. Thanks Steve M

Hi, Just to add a couple of thoughts: Like Iceni on the first page (and others) I don't think things are too bad. It's a bit of a trawl at times, but when scrolling I know when to stop if I've seen a post by member I recognise/respect. Do we need a major overhaul here - will that not cause more grief...? Nick Sussex's suggestion is a terrific idea - some kind of guide /pop up/whatever to advise on what all the jargon means. How many posts are there from genuinely interested people just asking what an acronym is about? Almost as many as there are "will is snow here?" ones. On a personal note - you could take a couple of Emoticons out of the catalogue. Given how emotional things get on the model threads as it is, I think they cause more trouble than they are worth! A couple of examples are: usually after putting up a stonking FI chart usually after putting up a stonking FI chart After a downgrade However, for some reason I always like to see the one with the woolly scarf and hat! Keep up the good work! Steve M (smich)

The word "outlier" is used erroneously far too often on here. Above is an example of a real outlier. Not towards the warm or cold end of the scale, but properly at odds with every other member. Everyone please note: an outlier Smich

That first pic you've put there Cal, shows Steve Murr's favourite - The Heart Shaped High Smich

Hi everyone, good to see some early snow in the Alps, although it will have time to melt before the season starts proper! If I could add Cervinia, Italy aswell please. Will there over New Year. Exceptional early season snow last year, let's hope for a repeat! With a base station at 2000m odd, I'm probably in a safer position than most (fingers crossed). Steve M

Great thread Mr Data, my nominations as follows... I've plumped for "events" rather than "spells" because they are so much more memorable I guess! All from winter, but only two are snowy... 28th Feb 2003 It started snowing around lunchtime, got harder, then the school run started, and the gritters were stuffed. Nowhere gritted, heavy heavy snowfall, Nth London gridlocked. I'm lucky enough to work within walking distance of home and I'll never forget the smell of burnt out clutches on Barnet hill as I walked home. Amazing. 28th Jan 2004 Like many others here, the thundersnow event that day strikes me as a one off. I watched the thin line of convection travel south on Netweather radar and coupled with the forum posts, was able to summon a member of staff to cover some roll cages filled with stock with a tarpaulin with impeccable timing - or so I thought! As we started, I saw some fine flakes crossing the light of the streetlamps, but 5 minutes later the ground was covered and we were slipping all over the place in a fierce blizzard. Rush hour gridlock for London again. (A conclusion here: why spend all that money on a beefy 4x4, if you have to follow a 2 wheel drive that will get stuck and block you anyway?) Last one: 2nd Dec 2005 Hemel Hempstead. The biggest bang...and the biggest , blackest cloud I have seen on a bright sunny day. It was so surreal, especially knowing it wasn't weather as such, but burning oil. I got some great pics and it certainly seemed like being under a volcanic ash cloud - at least from where I was standing! There we go - hope the last one counts! Steve M

BBC's Dan Corbett, bless his cotton socks, briefly mentioned Grace in his 6.30 forescast, referring to her as a little "troublemaker"!! Quite apt I think. Nothing dramatic, weather wise, but a very interesting little storm nonetheless. Steve M

Thanks, guys, great info. James is dead chuffed and gaped openmouthed at the length of John track across the Pacific B) Steve M

Thanks Cookie, I will pass on your answer in the morning! I suspected that, as Hawaii was English speaking, it was likely to be Hurricanes, but it still begs the question- where do you draw the line? Is there such a thing as a "Hurriphoon"?! LOL Thanks Steve M