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Everything posted by snowray
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Bearsted used to be one of the honey pots in Kent back in the 80's for snow, I think it was Jan 87 that my old boss who lived there was completely snowed in for almost a week and couldn't make it in to work in London, he was a short man, I remember him saying he could not see over the snow drifts in his back garden. Tomorrow should be a lot colder than today so can't see us reaching them dizzy heights of 4/5c again. Upper temps today were around -6c, tomorrow -10c, -11c, -12c Dew points today were 2c on the coast and about 0c, possibly -1c in places max, tomorrow -3c, -4c, -5c. Should make a big difference, I think some places will see 2/3cm maybe a bit more. Any bookies around to start a competition, Tom?
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That is so annoying! Chanel Islands will be the honey pot.
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I noticed that the ECM likes to tease us with cold charts that come to nothing, but when a real outbreak of cold weather is on the cards it's as miserly as the BBC!
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January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests
snowray replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yes your ok, first three days of the month are fine but with a small penalty, you can also add a precipitation estimate for January if you wish. -
January 2024 CET and E.W.P. forecast contests
snowray replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
4.1c and 82mm please. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
snowray replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another very slight move there towards the GFS. Could see some blinding runs in the 12z's today. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
snowray replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm really sorry for your loss, I can imagine what you went through, lost my mum too after 5 years of this terrible illness. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
snowray replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Depends if the ground freezes if we get some ice days, and quantity of snowfall. The GFS keeps most of the ppn just clipping the coast on the 12z run, but if we saw some heavy snowfall could turn very cold in them slack easterly winds and cold uppers, particularly at night. Maybe a December 1981 re-run, when we saw lots of snow and extreme cold at times but upper air was not even particularly low. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
snowray replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would expect some very cold temps at this stage, early December sun very weak, no snow melt, hard frosts. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
snowray replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes it's usually a blend between the two, with things regularly ending up further east, interesting to note this weeks little channel low feature, ECM had it way too far south, whilst GFS was too far north, UKMO were closest with it eventually just affecting areas roughly south of the M4, so ECM did worse on this occasion. I have a feeling that we could end up with a dry spell dominated by HP for the last week of the month, with any showers just clipping the east coast, although a decent cold spell can't be ruled out just yet. -
I think that what was required was a blast of cold from the north, something that wasn't out of the ordinary in the second half of November not so long ago, followed by HP over the country with frosts and fog. I have gone for 7c so this scenario would have suited me. Of course late November 2010 was quite exceptional, I have never seen powder snow or such low temps for the time of the year, I usually looked at mid December for real Winter to start. It would seem that we are paying for it now with these mainly mild and wet Novembers ever since.