snowray

Too cold, Algeria might be better though for a snow fix, although I notice that Morocco misses out this time.

Look at all that lovely cold air in the east, just imagine if it had our name written on it, could easily be another 2018, we are still in the ssw lottery remember with our lucky ticket.

Here we go, about time! D12

Makes me think to myself, is it easier to catch a wild goose I wonder, or get a memorable dumping of snow in Bexhill on Sea?

What gets my goat is that we never, ever, and I mean NEVER get near term upgrades, this easterly is so ridiculously close it's almost insulting! And Northern Italy has been forecast that heavy snow all week, no downgrades there, like Greece, a mere speck on the global map, but they always get their snow too, no near misses for the Greeks....Ever!

06z ensembles don't look too bad to me, hopefully we will start to see more runs like the control turning up in the next few days and things firming up a bit more for the first half of March.

That's true, in fact I'm surprised that there are not more snow showers/flurries being forecast this weekend, at least for the SE, -8/-9c uppers by Sunday for a while.

Yes and this is a lot better too, 06z control at D10.

There was still snow on Dartmoor in JUNE!! Wow factor, repeat of this sort of event must surely be due after over 100 years, who knows maybe this year. Lets face it, this could be the last big ramp of the season if March flops then that will be it, all over, so might as well make the most of it.

For where is it an outlier? Main action has not started yet at T192.

OMG, pure filth! This looks like a slider too right at the end of the run, historic early March coming up?

Makes a blinking change!

Bank!!!

Ens for Londres, still quite a large spread but the trend is clear, also we can see snow chances all the way through to the end of the run, don't see that often for London.

Lassie is an old timer on here Ray, I think you will find he's (might be a They, or an It, though) a lot wiser than he likes to make out!

There are usually fine margins in the UK, will it be cold enough for snow we often ask, will the cold air just clip the east coast of the country, or end up in the Atlantic. If you consider that London to Bristol is a mere 100 miles or so as the crow flies, on a global scale that's nothing, but in the UK it is often small margins that make a big difference. Take for example the current set up, after downgrading the toppler, and the easterly we are now seeing upgrades, forget the 100 miles, 50 miles or less could mean the difference between more dry/cold weather or snow showers in the east and south, yes as usual fine margins indeed.... As for early March, well no fine margins there. I think we are about to find out just how cold it can get in March in the UK. Question now is, will it be snow for many or just a few, hopefully the majority on here will get their snow fix soon enough.

50p each way is about as far as I would want to go! 06z much better run, so was yesterdays if I remember right, we have our starter from the initial cold easterly, now here comes the main course that we have all been waiting for from the NE.

It was in fact the UKMO a couple of day's back that was the most bullish in respects of the northerly and most of the models showed it on and off, I guess it had a 50/50 chance. Problem being that we miss the 1st bite quite often, and the 2nd, now we are looking at past D10 again, also the ens are showing a wide spread into March, unfortunately it's not by any means a done deal that we will get a direct hit at some point next month, hopefully we will and the SSW plays it's part in events. It just seems to me that there is always the risk of more near misses, the dregs and the frustration of intense cold but dry, if this should be the case I prefer a Mild March with some pleasant Spring sunshine.

Thursdays toppler, FAIL. The cold/mild/cold/mild easterly, FAIL. Early March anyone?

Here we go, GFS, UKMO, GEM and ICON for next Sunday, pretty good agreement there, GFS looks like the odd one out.

This is very positive, we are so used to seeing downgrades to the extent that it seems almost impossible to get any short term upgrades most of the time, and next week was looking like another lost cause. But at times features that we see out in FI can move into the more reliable time frame in just one run or two, not saying this will happen on this occasion but I have noticed this in the past where we have had decent winter set ups. Pity ICON only goes out to T120, looks like a very decent northerly here veering NEly as the LP moves south and HP into Iceland. All eyes on the GFS now.

ICON goes from zero to hero! Now this is in the reliable time frame at T114, may not have to wait much longer after all.

Absolutely vile ICON.

Very mild by day and by night at the moments, 14-16c max temps yesterday.

London short ENS, looking pretty good there, might even be a slight improvement, some member going down to -10c hpa.