snowray

Strange how this little corner of the SE does so well for sunshine, and I have not seen any fog, maybe further inland. I was thinking about sea fog the other day, used to get really foggy under HP.

Yes, they have had that cold easterly all week, even colder in Italy.

I think there was one cloudy day here too come to think of it, but you must have also had the clear skies where you are since Monday? Looks a little cloudier from tomorrow though but turning milder now so should see temps rising above 10/11c maybe.

Not sure about that, looks pretty chilly there to me around Nice and Cannes today.

Well February has so far been wall to wall sunshine down here, today was like mid Spring not a cloud in the sky. Is this the south coast of the UK, someone said to me, or the South of France?

its as bad as it gets.

No forgiveness for the GFS model from me, it was a wind up last winter too. At least the other models correct themselves pretty fast, in fact it was ECM that first had more amplification a few days back back at T 240, but it was only one run. I posted this earlier......this was the GFS Ens just yesterday, and I'll post it again, not even a half way house, what a joke!!!!!

GFS is junk, it was last Winter too. Winter for Easter? No thanks!

Dear me, what a pile of tosh!

What a difference a day makes 24 little hours brought the sun and the flowers where there used to be snow showers! Yesterdays 06z Ens.....

Yes your probably right, everything seemed a little further north on the Fax. Anyway, I hope this gets resolved by tomorrow morning runs, don't think I can handle another day of this!

T120 Fax chart just out, seems to have shifted somewhat to the GFS to me.

Not so sure that it's a complete outlier, here is the mean which has upgraded the movement west of the cold again. Shocking stuff!

Major differences alright from its 00z run at D5, incredible.

Op coldest run but not without some support, not really an outlier. Well what a sorry state of affairs for the GFS if it has to backtrack later on this afternoon after such an epic run, hold your nerves gang, only another 3 hours or so to go. Although it would probably be chaos for the country if anything like it were to confirm so not sure I'd want anything quite this extreme, thinking of high energy bills, the elderly, homeless, ambulance strikes, etc.

Close to a Jan 87 or Feb 91 redux, Kent would be snowed in like it was back then!

Here we go blinding run, to coin a phrase, snow showers now piling in from the east coast.. We can still dream, make or break for the models on 12z runs later on.

Yes it's close to being the classic Genoa low, need that to deepen a bit move now, and ideally a bit further north too.

It is better, this is utter madness now!

5.1c and 37.5mm please.

I would happily bank this run, and there would almost certainly be a lot more snow around than this shows! In the past I have noticed the UKMO to be rather reluctant to jump on board with extreme cold scenario's for the UK, so not that worried for now, I think it's going to be all eyes on the ECM now.

Very mild today, I noticed temps of 10-12c this afternoon, guess it may still rise by a fraction.

Consensus was 5.05c, so a finish very close to this again.

06z short ens certainly showing the cooling trend in the SE starting at D6, with the potential of snow flurries turning up.

That looks pretty decent. I know that we moan a lot about days getting longer in February, myself included, but having read a few things about winter Lore and weather history it's a month that can produce some of the most bitter winter weather. It's just that most of us today have not experienced a severe February in our lifetime. apart from the odd BFTE and then a quite rapid warm up. Two very old sayings spring to mind. As the days get longer the cold gets stronger. and February is short, short, but worse than a Tork. (Turk) This goes back to the time of the Ottoman Empire. NB...Apologies if I might have bored you with my musings. Anyway, hopefully we can see further upgrades in the coming day or two which will produce a memorable February.