snowray

That is so annoying! Chanel Islands will be the honey pot.

Just looked at the met office radar forecast, it has updated for Monday and is showing a lot more showers coming through now than it did earlier on, maybe Kasim is onto something there.

I noticed that the ECM likes to tease us with cold charts that come to nothing, but when a real outbreak of cold weather is on the cards it's as miserly as the BBC!

Thats a decent hight you have got there. Where exactly is Challock though?

Way more showery activity this evening around the SE than what was showing on the met office app, think it will be the same on Monday.

Indeed. Imagine the chaos if we got anything like that these days.

Hi carinthian Could that be the Boxing day storm of 1927 by any chance, where there were reports of 15 foot snow drifts? There was nothing that extreme on boxing day 1918. Regards snowray

Yes your ok, first three days of the month are fine but with a small penalty, you can also add a precipitation estimate for January if you wish.

Looks like there has never been a 7c or a 7.1c December in 300 odd years, but quite a few milder ones, notably in the 1800's. I just thought it looked a bit strange.

Looking at your list there, can I ask, has there ever been a 7c December?

4.1c and 82mm please.

Made a little calculation to the 10th and came up with 4.04c, not too far off.

Makes a change to actually win something. Thanks Roger for all your hard work running the competition.

5.3c and 121.5mm please.

Another very slight move there towards the GFS. Could see some blinding runs in the 12z's today.

I'm really sorry for your loss, I can imagine what you went through, lost my mum too after 5 years of this terrible illness.

Depends if the ground freezes if we get some ice days, and quantity of snowfall. The GFS keeps most of the ppn just clipping the coast on the 12z run, but if we saw some heavy snowfall could turn very cold in them slack easterly winds and cold uppers, particularly at night. Maybe a December 1981 re-run, when we saw lots of snow and extreme cold at times but upper air was not even particularly low.

Would expect some very cold temps at this stage, early December sun very weak, no snow melt, hard frosts.

Yes it's usually a blend between the two, with things regularly ending up further east, interesting to note this weeks little channel low feature, ECM had it way too far south, whilst GFS was too far north, UKMO were closest with it eventually just affecting areas roughly south of the M4, so ECM did worse on this occasion. I have a feeling that we could end up with a dry spell dominated by HP for the last week of the month, with any showers just clipping the east coast, although a decent cold spell can't be ruled out just yet.

I think that what was required was a blast of cold from the north, something that wasn't out of the ordinary in the second half of November not so long ago, followed by HP over the country with frosts and fog. I have gone for 7c so this scenario would have suited me. Of course late November 2010 was quite exceptional, I have never seen powder snow or such low temps for the time of the year, I usually looked at mid December for real Winter to start. It would seem that we are paying for it now with these mainly mild and wet Novembers ever since.

Oh ok, how about 10 foot waves then, I wanted to take some pics tomorrow morning.

So we could see 15 foot waves in Bexhill early hours, scarry.

Think everything slightly further north again on the 12z runs.

Maybe we could have a competition for the strongest winds in our region tomorrow? I'll got for 85mph.

7c and 157mm please.