WeatherArc

Today has completely overperformed, multiple discrete supercells are currently tracking through the Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky areas with at least one strong-violent tornado reported near Clarksville Tennessee The SPC has now upgraded the slight risk to an enhanced one with a 10% sig tor area

still think saturday could bring a severe wind threat, however not so sure about tornadoes now

12z GFS continues the trend of slowing, increasingly looking like an absolute unit of a trough ejection next saturday Powerful looking low level jet as well Moisture upgrades on the 12z , 60+ dewpoints now being pulled as far north as south western Kentucky. Will be interesting to see how the CAMS run with this.

Well just when i thought this season was over, looks like it wants to give us one last show. Big time trough ejection next weekend, over the last 48 hours models have trended it slower and given it a slight negative tilt, may need to watch this one closely. SPC has now issued a 15% risk area 6 days out, some pretty strong wording with this "The upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains on Saturday. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 60s F appear likely from east Texas into parts of Arkansas where moderate instability could be in place by midday Saturday. Thunderstorm development appears likely during the day from east Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. The progressive nature of the trough, along with strong deep-layer shear and adequate low-level moisture, will favor severe thunderstorm development. All hazards will be possible including tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. The models are now in good agreement concerning this scenario, and a 15 percent contour has been added for Saturday in parts of east Texas, northwestern Louisiana and the Ark-La-Tex." Looking at the 12z runs tonight it seems that the GFS wants a much quicker and negatively tilted trough to move through while the euro has it slower and taking on a more neutral/slightly positive tilt. Regardless of positioning this is a strong trough, the 500mb jet streak looks to be anywhere between 90-120 knots, storms will have ample shear to tap into if they can form. Weathertrackus on twitter points out that the overall trend seems to be one of slowing the trough and cold front down, this may give the surface low time to strengthen, allowing for higher 850mb winds and low level shear. Personally, i suspect the GFS is way too quick with the trough and the euro a little too slow, imo most likely area to see any severe weather is around the mississippi valley, areas such as eastern Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri and southern Illinois should watch how models develop over the next week. This does slightly concern me, global models struggle with moisture at this time of year especially this far out, seeing 60s dewpoints already at the tennessee border on most runs is very potent. The moisture will decide what states see a severe risk/how high end that risk is. 12 GEFS, In line with my thinking that the GFS is being too fast, very potent looking trough. Something else that stands out to me right now is the lapse rates, the last few events we have really struggled with low-mid levels, however looking at a few random soundings taken from the 12 GFS the lapse rates across the profile look supportive. Overall, next weekend needs watching closely for severe potential, will be interesting to see how models trend over the next few days.

0z gfs highlights how that lows position will be critical to which places see snow

hope you guys down there get something as well just depends on where this system positions itself, if it shifts slightly south again you'll be in luck! would also watch the backside of the low as it drags down colder air behind it, the euro has all of warwickshire with atleast 2cm by monday night

All eyes on Sunday night/Monday morning now, positioning of low will decide who sees snow.

All eyes on sunday night/monday now, if we can get that low to drop just slightly south so we dont pick up those southerly winds (as the euro shows) i think the whole region will have a decent snow event

Snow stopped now, probs about 1-2 cm 20231203_013437.mp4 20231203_014626.mp4

Thursday-Friday really looking good for especially south-central areas on the GFS this evening

i believe some on here said around -6

Uppers of -11 just off the north coast of Scotland with most of the country under -5 or less

42 years ago yesterday! Does anyone know if any form radar imagery exists for this event? Im guessing not but would love to see if there is anything relating to it.

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Its a shame the uppers arent a little colder but for late November early December ill easily take this If we are getting this in a winter thats been forecasted to be more of a back ended one i wonder what jan and feb are gonna be like

Multiple storms have now formed and are tracking across east texas, many clustered as suspected but this little cell out on its own really needs watching.

Wanted to stay up just to see 00z HRRR ahead of tomorrows severe weather event. Multiple different soundings taken from across (Southern Arkansas, Louisiana, East Texas, Western Mississippi) the large warm sector. Getting increasingly concerned for a potential localised tornado outbreak. 1200+ sbcape, 50+ 3cape combined with 350+ 0-3km SRH and some very streamwise hodographs. IMO the only potential thing holding this event back is the lapse rates. EHI over the past few runs has massively uptrended, now seeing a few spots of 7+ compared to 3+ we were seeing yesterday. Simulated reflectivity also concerns me, the stratiform rain which was a potential bust factor has been shifted north, allowing for ample semi-discrete supercells to develop. Overall, a significant severe weather outbreak is likely across portions of the south tomorrow night with the potential for several tornadoes, a few of which may be EF2 or greater. Interested to see the actual morning observations and satellite tomorrow.

The 18z HRRR is most favorable run ive seen yet, multiple semi-discrete supercells with all hazards, still not 100% about tomorrow but if this verifies a significant severe weather outbreak is possible.

What an interesting run from the euro, seems to be going towards the GFS? anyhow it looks pretty decent, especially for those up north.

! SPC has just upgraded tomorrows outlook to enhanced. Tornado driven upgrade with a large 10% hatched area for the risk of EF2+ Tornadoes, also a 30% risk for damaging winds and a 15% chance of large hail. "Severe thunderstorms are likely Monday afternoon into Monday night from east Texas into parts of the Lower-Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Damaging winds and several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, will be the primary hazards. However, some large hail is also possible" Not a great combination, strong tornadoes+fast storms+dixie alley terrain and in complete darkness.

33 hours out, still many uncertainty's mainly to do with the extent of morning convection and its impact on the environment. I suspect HRRR may be slightly overconvecting, plus for some reason during recent events its struggled with accuracy/placement of developing storms. Reed has noted a potential EML showing on a few models, this may help suppress some of this early convection and allow for ample (1000-2000 j/kg) instability to build. A strong (45 kts+) LLJ will develop allowing for strong low level shear with SRH across the target area being 350+ Northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas has the best shear, however the effect of morning convection is pretty obvious, East Texas and Southern Louisiana doesnt have much early convection allowing for the environment to recover throughout the day, low level lapse rates could still be an issue. The RRFS on the other hand seems to show lots less early convection and more isolated potential supercells, however the 850 LLJ is much weaker.

Interesting...... That low looks a lot better on the 00z, also slightly slower.

Considering this is only 18z on monday, thats an impressive environment. Very interested to see the 00z HRRR.

Saying that i would be very happy to be proven wrong!