WeatherArc

Sounds like Reed has had a close call with a violent, deviant tornado in Colorado. Hes ok but has had his rear windscreen blown out. He also seems to of lost his shirt Tornado wedged out but has since occluded and dissipated, the supercell continues to cyclically produce tornadoes.

Wow, that colorado cell is absolutely crazy, i didn't expect anything like this today. Reed reporting an extremely deviant and strong tornado. Extremely cyclic cell as well. Vince and Reed still live and covering it.

Updates on tmrws severe weather potential. Both the HRRR and NAM 3km now agree on a potent environment ahead of a developing cold front, questions still there over 3cape, lapse rates, morning convection and capping however the potential for a very rare August severe weather event is increasing. The main threat area seems to be Eastern Oklahoma, Southern Missouri, North-Central Arkansas and extreme South Eastern Kansas. Hodographs that wouldn't look out of place for spring. Both models are also showing a discrete/semi-discrete storm mode with 2-5 supercells developing either on the front or in the open warm sector. Profiles that wouldn't look out of place for April or May, 35+kt 850mb winds will allow for large, curving hodographs with 0-3km helicity widely above 480 m/s. This combined with widely 3000+ j/kg of Sbcape will allow for supercells with all hazards. I would keep an eye on 3cape however, seems to be a distinct lack of it. This may hamper tornadogenesis.

Thats a pretty unusual sight for August.... Not just the Nam 3km, GFS and RAP onboard, may need watching closely esp if morning convection clears out before main development region.

Hey guys, back from 2 weeks in the US visiting family in both Florida and Michigan. While there i was able to see some of the best convection and storms i've genuinely ever seen (photo dump incoming ) I decided to delete the previous post and put this in a new topic so I didnt clog up any actual discussions/feeds. July 20th featured an enhanced risk in Michigan, Due to bad positioning i was unable to get many pictures of the large MCS that developed producing 80 mph winds, QLCS tornadoes and quarter sized hail. However, I was able to get some shots of the storms anvils as they passed me to the North-West. Florida was much more fruitful in storm terms, delivering daily thunderstorms, heat indexes above 40°C and 23°C+ dewpoints SBCAPE was regularly in the 3000-4000 range with it reaching 5500 at one point, additionally it never went below 1000 j/kg during any of the days or nights i was there. While in South Florida near the town of Homestead I believe I was able to chase my first ever US Supercell, i'm still 50/50 if it was however radar presentation showed the storm deviating from the North West path of other storms and it began to move directly to the East. Additionally velocities showed the storm had some weak rotation in the mid levels. It was also the most electrically active storm i've ever experienced, multiple CGs in rapid succession with thunder becoming a constant, never ending low rumble in the background. I'm not sure if anyone experienced with supercell structure can help but it did have a substantial lowering on it for a good 30 mins with rising scud in the inflow region. No sign of anything tornadic but the storm did go severe warned for 30 mins. As the storm moved slowly off to the North East its Anvil was caught in one of the most amazing sunsets I've ever seen. I still can't believe i experienced this, just stunning. This happened everyday I was there as the sun set behind anvils of the daily thunderstorms. This was followed by around an hour of lightning as the storm slowly died and faded to the East, however tropical thunderstorms then rapidly developed off the south coast of the Florida Keys. With water temperatures between 31-38°C and Nightime temps never dipping below 34°C these storms were very electrically active. I will try to trim some videos of the light show and post some on here. The flight back home was pretty convective as well. Overall, an amazing trip that i'm already missing, will hopefully be able to go back soon. Hope you guys like the photos, not sure what to do about some of the weirdly cropped ones but oh well, I'll try to post some videos of those night storms if the jetlag hasn't killed me

I see the GFS is having fun tonight Will note lots of CIN in the lowest 1km though. Way out of course but might need watching? Its shown up on a few runs now.

Looks like the first major wildfire of the season, The Flat Fire is located in South West Oregon near the town of Agness and started yesterday. It's already shown signs of extreme fire behaviour with medium-range spotting allowing it to cross the Illinois river threatening campsites near Oak Flats. Temperatures in the area forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s with relative humidity widely under 25%, the US forest service warning of rapid growth. Evacuations likely.

Update, a major heatwave in the Southwest United States will begin in a few days, a 600dm area of high pressure will track, stall and then strengthen over the region and allow for a 'heat dome' to develop Euro and GFS have agreed on this for around a week now. Daily highs within the California Central Valley will be in the mid 40s with some spots recording temperatures around 48-50°C, the Sierra Nevada mountain range is also likely to experience hot or very hot conditions with areas surrounding the Sierra and Stanislaus National forests as well as Yosemite and Sequoia national parks going into the mid to high 30s. Death valley living up to its name with these temperatures The good side however is areas along the coast will offer relief due to the marine layer, with major urban areas such as San Francisco staying under 30 degrees. Relative Humidity is widely below 20% away from the coast with some spots below 5%. Wouldn't be surprised to see some red flag warnings issued by the NWS as fire weather conditions become incredibly favorable over the next week, especially when combined with any katabatic winds within the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Fire conditions may also be exacerbated due to California's wet winter and spring that has led to a high vegetation and underbrush growth rate, these will dry out quickly and will become either fuel or a fuel ladder for new start wildfires. Talking about wildfires, while this year has started slow with the Boulder Lake and Tunnel Five fires in Oregon being the only notable fires along the US Pacific coast I would expect an uptick as we head into late July (especially with this outlook for Cal) the long range forecast below isn't great with an increased chance of dry thunderstorms and a dry October. Somehow i've spent 30 mins writing all that but hope it's helpful for anyone in the area or just interested in NA weather. Will update with any developments regarding heat or fires.

Tomorrow's event is completely dependent on the cloud cover from that front, the problem is that models are awful with cloud coverage. Gonna have to wait and see what the satellite and surface temps look like tmrw morning.

Some interesting results from the long range CFS, seems to be quite consistent in showing high pressure being pretty dominant throughout winter with strong lows occasionally sweeping through bringing heavy rain. Obviously this is the long range CFS so I wouldn't look too much into it but i'm curious about what this winter will be like given El Nino conditions. I will note though im seeing a couple of decent snow setups.

Not looking good for that snow, All models agreeing on a potentially extreme and long lasting heatwave to hit the desert Southwest then move over California GFS and Euro in very good agreement. Both also agreeing on the strength of the high at around 600dm, looks to park itself over California for an extended period. Extreme heat, peaking at around 49°C but will likely breach the 50 mark in some areas. Heat not just confined to the Central Valley with temps in Yosemite and the surrounding Sierra Nevada range peaking in the mid to high 30s. Likely to see some records breached. Relative Humidity widely below 20% and going into single digits in some places, will likely be very conducive for fire weather. California's fire season has had a quiet start but with as the outlook i'd expect an uptick. Rainfall amounts going out to the end of both the Euro and GFS.

GDPS looking very interesting for sat, widely 1000+ j/kg of sbcape with some spots in Cambridgeshire reaching 2500+ Sounding from around Peterborough, large hail analogs here of 3.65 (softball) and 2.75 (baseball) Potential weak tornado threat as well. Good 3cape values on lots of soundings. Shaping up to be another day of intense-severe thunderstorms for central England.

Sat looking decent, fair bit of cape and shear around.

Decent output from the 12z GFS, some plume potentials way out in the long range as well, hoping next week will be good for us storm lovers. Extreme heat potential growing in the Central Mediterranean though, could be seeing Europe's max temperature records at least reached and the potential for them to be breached. I'll take cooler, thundery weather over this anyday. Looking like multiple days of 42+ very likely over southern Italy and Sardinia.

No worries, Enjoy Greece

May be wishful thinking but im seeing lots of potential for hot conditions, loads of heat to our south through the entire 18z GFS, just need to get a decent plume to pull them up.

For some reference, this is what the 850 temp chart looked like last year when we hit 40 degrees.

Going off the 12Z GFS i think you should be fine, the extreme heat seems to stay mostly in North Africa and Central Med. Looks like daily temps will peak around 35-38 degrees degrees so high but nothing crazy hot like 2021, i'm not seeing any continuous days of 40+ at the moment. However, at the end of the run (around the 14th) some hot uppers begin to be advected towards Greece So probs looking at temps peaking around 40 for 2-3 days. Like i said before, not seeing anything reminiscent of the 2021 heatwave, that was caused by a high pressure 'heat dome' sitting over the country for weeks and there's no sign of that. The deep red 590+ air doesn't always mean hot conditions, someone can probably explain it way better than me but its to do with air pressure, deep reds represent stronger pressure and therefore drier conditions. I find it's better to look at the 850 temp chart as you can see how warm the air mass being advected above is, just remember that the temp you see won't be the one on the surface as factors such as soil moisture may affect the translation downwards.

Decent agreement from Euro and GFS tonight, we just need that low pulled a little further west. Look at those uppers over Spain and North Africa, if only we could get the low to sink a little bit southwards and stay in place for a few days, would be a proper heat pump. Regardless, I'll take anything over the cloudy and cool conditions we've had the past few days

Been a good season, lots of incredibly photogenic tors and supercells. Will be interesting to see what the second season from October to Jan is like as the last few years have been very active due to La Niña. I wonder if it will be a much quieter season now that El Niño has kicked in or whether the record SSTs will keep Gulf moisture in place to be pumped up by strong low pressure systems.

I mean the GFS was getting 40+ into Northern France and Belgium last night, it's incredibly unlikely but the heat building over North Africa does interest me. Europe is in a much better place than last year in terms of drought conditions but it is something to keep an eye on.

Models seem to be really all over the place the past few days, i reckon the euro will pick it up again in a few runs.

I'm liking the look of the second week of July but more runs defo needed. Seems were in a period of models attempting to sniff out a pattern, potential for hot conditions defo there tho.