WeatherArc

20 hours later and the NAM is being quite consistent with all of its runs, possibility of a significant all hazards severe weather day. 3km NAM should be in range tonight, lets see what it shows. Im surprised the SPC has this area in just general t-storms, maybe its to do with uncertainty over cells firing on the dry line but still there should be a shortwave moving through, i would expect the risk to be upgraded soon.

A level 2/5 risk is in place mainly for Oklahoma today, main threat will be supercells with large/very large hail however a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Latest satellite shows morning convection ongoing across the Eastern portions of the state, however to the West substantial clearing is ongoing, allowing for cape to build. Dont think this morning convection should be too much of an issue. Interestingly, the latest 15z RAP has upgraded low level shear, although tornado threat will stay relatively low due to capping and a lack of 3cape. HRRR pretty much the same

I haven't looked at Wednesday that much but at first glance MLcape charts aren't great unfortunately, probs max of 500 j/kg? As cape is sub 800 it will likely be a case of a squall line or heavy rain with a few embedded thunderstorms, producing a couple of CCs (if lucky) before they use up all available energy and die. Probably some squally winds and heavy rain though. Looking at GFS its pretty much the same picture, decent hodograph (no inflow though) but profile is very saturated and convection will be quite shallow with the EL height being below 6km. Lapse rates also aren't great unfortunately. Will keep an eye on it but sadly it just looks like a classic autumn cold front rather than anything thundery.

Going off recent model output, i don't think storm season is over just yet. GFS trying to get the 15 degree isotherm into most of the UK around late September/early october. 12z had temps peak in the mid 20s, would probably be some decent instability around when combined with the above average sea surface temps. Just for fun as 300 hours out but the 12z also had some very interesting hodographs across the Uk with moderate cape (600 j/kg)

Sigh. Why do we always call tornadoes 'mini' in this country, it's either a tornado or not. Would yesterday's tornado in Northern France be mini? Pretty impressive for a cell this side of the channel though, must of become surface based and tapped into that low level shear, if only we had access to better radar so we could of seen it forming

Just been woken up to distant thunder in Birmingham

Right guys, i think im gonna call it for tonight. The cells near Fairford look decent enough but im unsure they will get here without running out of instability. A great storm event for those across the south and east, hopefully there's some great lightning and structure pics on here later. Still cant believe that photogenic tornado in France!

According to the lightning map there were two strikes just north of Evesham and south of Warwick, can anyone here confirm?

To be honest im not sure, i would say though that i would put the Uk storm capital somewhere between Lincoln and Cambridge

To be fair, i do seem to remember there was an occurrence (possibly last year) where the channel had above average sea surface temps and some surface based storms managed to move up into the South East. I still think elevated storms can be relatively photogenic/proper lightning producers though, it just takes a lots of effort for them to be

The fact those storms near Cheltenham are still putting out a good bit of lightning gives me some hope they can survive into the west mids.

Unfortunately surface based storms just cant survive the cold waters of the channel and become elevated, the severe t-storm outbreak we had last sunday in south Lincolnshire were surface based though.

7 hours later and the absolute storm factory that is northern France is still going, pretty incredible. Some places have easily seen 7+ rounds of storms.

Cell near Cirencester now producing a few strikes.

My alarms set for 6 30

I would keep a lookout, the flow has changed and storms are heading more northerly now, am watching these new cells currently, pretty sure they will get to us it just depends how electrically active they are Lets hope theres still some cape about

Looks like some new developments near Swindon, seem to be heading relatively north as well. @Metwatch looking like this might head up to us

Hopefully, those cells in Wales were disappointments

For anyone interested this is the observed profile from close to that photogenic tornado in France today

For anyone else in the West Mids, i've just watched these cells develop over the last 5 mins, on a direct course to Birmingham. will watch closely

WOW That's gotta be the best photo of a tornado producing supercell in Europe

Some good lightning views on these cams

Shortwave about to make landfall, hopefully with an accompanying uptick in storm development