WeatherArc

As much as i want the GFS to win i will say that it hasn't been great recently. For example, look at its recent handling of a potential severe weather event/trough in the US. The gfs has a much flatter trough when compared to every other single model. Over the last few runs it has now climbed down and joined the other models. Hopefully this wont happen in our case but i would be more inclined to believe the euro to be honest.

100% will take this over what weve all had recently, lets see what the euro makes of all this.

After about 10 busts and what feels like 10 years severe potential may be making a comeback to the US, especially across Dixie alley, main day seems to be monday. Will keep an eye on what models decide to do over the next 2 days, SPC has issued 15% severe risks for day 4 and 5. Some disagreements at the moment between models, mainly with boundaries and strength of the low level jet. Nam comes into range tomorrow so will be interesting to see its take.

I did think it was a little much but not sure how these things work, maybe to do with construction? I believe the ESSL gave it an IS2/EF2. This is the worst damage ive seen, will have a look at twitter for anything else.

Crazy Stronger than Birmingham 2005, must equate to at least a high end EF2, if not a low end EF3. Looks like all the perfect ingredients came together, good cape, high 3cape very strong shear (250m2 0-1km SRH) and decent lapse rates. All of this combined to create the supercell storm that tracked over the Island, producing the strong tornado as well as severe hail, lightning and wind gusts. Still can't get over the fact it happened in November! Edit-After comparing Torro to EF scale this tornado was very likely an EF3

Thats some of the worst tornado damage ive ever seen in the UK, roof completely ripped off.

Just seen this, holy s**t High 3cape, strong shear and windprofile, good cape. I cant wrap my head around it, in November of all months.

Maytober? Interestingly runs like this one for Wednesday night next week keeps showing up on model runs, even has ensemble support. 200 hours out, lets see how it trends over the next few days.

Think the season is pretty much over now, always think it is when you see more sea based cape than over land and dewpoints drop. Pretty happy overall with this season, i think July and August stopped it from becoming a historic year for convection but still had some great t-storm events mixed in between the duller months. Below is a big compilation of radar loops/lightning maps and storm photos for what i think were the top 3 events this year June 11th September 10th September 18th Honorable mentions This cap busting nuke of a storm in Ireland on September 8th And one of the most beautiful storms i've ever seen in Oklahoma on September 24th Feel free to put any other storm photos or radar loops ive missed out below. Apologies for the massive post but felt it was nice to look back on the year, probably the last time for a while i'll be posting on here unless we get a december derecho 2023 was a great year for storms, lets see if 2024 can beat it!

Eyes on Wednesday night next week for a potential severe weather event, lots of factors still have to come together but recent model upgrades are making it look like a very interesting setup. Large trough moves in with accompanying surface low. 12z GFS depicts a strong low level response as the surface low moves to the north east, strongest low level jet ive seen in a while. This allows for large values (350+) of SRH Cape looks to be relatively low (1000-1700) however with the strong windfields the GFS is showing 1500j/kg will likely be plenty for severe weather. The main problem with the setup right now is the moisture and nature of that surface low. A more closed, deeper and slower moving low would allow for backed winds and a slower cold front, the backed winds will also allow for a greater northwards pull of good moisture from the Gulf. Going to be an interesting few days of model watching coming up.

Anyone up for some october storms?

Interesting that the 12z GFS agrees, even having the peak of the temps on the same day as ECM, perhaps a little cooler but not by much.

Blue skies ahead of that line in Wales, could lead to some destabilisation?

I was have been wondering the past few weeks what our place on that chart would be, for me in the midlands anyway im not that surprised 2023 ranked so high. May had a few active days and June featured pretty much storms every weekend for my area including a very powerful MCS on June the 11th. If it wasn't for July and August we would probably of beaten 2020, of course September has also been incredibly active. Certainly been an amazing year for homegrown storms.

This could be very interesting, extremely high 3cape (180+) combined with 600+ m2 s-2 of storm relative helicity, would be very easy to stretch and tilt updrafts even if they are low topped storms, definite tornado risk in Ireland and possible parts of Wales and Scotland depending on instability.

Some more vids/tweets i found, this time from the storm that developed over mid wales and tracked eastwards. Im not sure if the thing was supercellular, however the amount of lightning it was putting out was just incredible. Nothing better than a completely isolated storm with a complete lack of any other storms/clouds around it. Certainly a reminder that when things come together the UK can have storms that rival those on the Continent and US. Even found a view from a plane!

Didn't expect this today, just had two massive CCs directly over me!

Just come across this good vid from the severe thunderstorm outbreak we had 2 weeks ago, i believe this was the storm near Holbeach, absolute insane shelf on that thing Sounds like continuous thunder as well, quite rare for the uk and indicative of a very powerful storm.

My goodness that storm last night in Oklahoma is one of the most beautiful i've ever seen

Rapidly lowering wall cloud on vinces stream very close to tornado

Vince now live

Saturday also looks like it could be a very interesting day. 00z sounding for sat in Northern Oklahoma, looks like the NAM is doing what it does best will wait for HRRR to get better picture.