abruzzi spur

I might sneak one in... ..some time around March 19th!

I'm sure you're teasing with the WO comment but there are people on here who will be traumatised! Remember the MO update today - based on that it is not unexpected to see a SW direction come in this weekend, but they were calling considerable uncertainty after that with slight favouring of cold air pushing back from the East resulting in some battleground scenarios. AS

Probably just be (John Colt) rain!

MO warning for a tenor saxophone to land on the country tonight: could get quite noisy.

Are you saying that these are not currently "in"?! I shall have to rethink my whole look now.....

The update for the 4th to 13th is pretty different today and suggests old-style battleground events from the 1970s. I suddenly feel the urge to adopt a 3 day week, engineer some power cuts and listen to The Sweet whilst enjoying a nice slice of Battenburg. AS

That last line is a bit of a disappointment - to expressly say that, rather than cite 'uncertainty' or say to 'keep watching the forecasts' suggests a high degree of confidence at this stage on the mostly dry theme. Sounds as though they are not too keen on the 06z model output today. Mind you, I suppose 'mainly dry' could be a bit of a hedge - if 90% of the country is dry but the south east corner (picking, you understand, a purely random example) were to be buried under a metre of snow then 'mostly dry' would probably still cover it! AS

Effect of a Thames streamer in Surrey, December 2010:

Trickier for the north of the region becuase of wind direction. A straight easterly wind or with a slight north-easterly element gives the best chance, I think, of kicking off a streamer, provided you have cold enough uppers.. Which means that the snow then heads west and south of west if you have got that north east element to the wind. A wind with more of a south easterly component has less sea to travel over and hence less opportunity to build the clouds that are needed. We got loads of snow last year in the Surrey Hills from a streamer and I think there was a slight north easterly element to the winds that day. The further north you go in our region the less you will see, from a classic streamer anyway. Unless you get a change in wind direction once the streamer has made its way west along the Thames, which would of course lead to bitter recriminations sarf of the river! Here's hoping for us all though. AS

Well, the temperature threshold values for a cold weather alert are, according to the MO, these: "Mean temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius for 48 hours or longer" So they are saying that it is likely that temps will go above the threshold. So that doesn't necessarily mean it will be particulalry mild. Also (and I'm trying hard here to be positive) if it does get milder you can have an ice cream! AS

Thanks, I was just having some fun with the idea that things were kinky over the south east. Note to self: if I have to explain my joke it probably hasn't worked.... AS

Yamkin, have you inhabited the mind of Roger J Smith on the model thread? This is what he (or is it you?!) has posted over there just now: "If the 06z verified it would be a Jan 1709 type strike on France as well as near-record cold for southeast England. Snow streamers could be explosive Wed-Thurs and bring very heavy snow to Kent and even parts of London. I would say a within 72-hours blizzard alert is now warranted if you believe those maps. I would not be surprised to see 60 cms of snow in heavy thunder-snow streamers near the Thames estuary. These could carry on some distance towards Surrey and Sussex from that direction, I don't picture this as being skinny little 10 cm bands but Great Lakes style mega-bands when you consider the thermal contrast. The gradient is good, you don't necessarily need much more than 25 knots of gradient to produce mega-streamer activity. This is the sort of organized troughing that I was expecting the North Sea to introduce, earlier maps looked too passive. In terms of France, this would drive -10 to -15 temperatures throughout the country even into the southwest wine regions and let's hope they are ready for that. Readings of -20 to -25 are not inconceivable in northeast France, Benelux and Germany with this. For the UK, I think the country needs to start preparing for the certainty of extreme cold and locally disruptive snowfalls, because that looks 99% likely now and will have a considerable cost as well as being a severe health hazard for the elderly and disabled. This isn't going to be a dip down to -5, it's going to be a plunge down into the -15 to -20 range in many parts. I would defer to people more familiar with UK conditions but there may well be a rash of problems with frozen water systems and possibly situations where snow contributes to frozen infrastructure locally. There is an element of flash freeze suggested by the rapid onset of the severe cold." I think this puts your posts warning of mayhem into the shade!! Remember folks it's only 1 person's view of 1 model run. Please. AS

Is that a weather forecast or a more general observation?!

The cold and dry theme continues from this morning's models with milder weather predicted from roughly next weekend or earlu the folloing week. Still quite far off though, so who knows... Laura Tobin said on BBC news this morning 'good news no snow in the forecast'. Pah

This sequence suggests that as soon as snow appears jackets, haircuts and ties become more sensible and the forecaster turns into a young Peter Cockcroft. I look forward to seeing if this happens to Laura Tobin as this week progresses.

it's a ridiculous state of affairs isn't it? I absolutely recognise what you describe. Not sure there is much that can be done for us lot really.....

Ta. Probably best that Steve talks about weather and I concentrate on accidental (honest m'lud) arson events.

Interesting question. I think I will advise myself that I don't have to answer it! Mind you, the house does still seem to be smouldering. Last time I try to chargrill, I can tell you.

Currently sitting in the garden still connected to the wifi. From my position I can exclusively report that it is pretty blinkin' cold. At least typing this has kept the fingers moving and frostnip at bay. However, it is very dark, the screen of the laptop is dazzling, and I am not confident in my ability, in these conditions, to accurately touch tripe. There may even be an error in that last sentence? I can also reveal, via laptop watch (the up to date version of lampost watch) that it is not snowing, but the week is yet young... AS

Yep, interesting that they said an Atlantic front Friday-time might try to move in, but no suggestion of a switch to mild south westerlies by the end of the week Definitely some cold nights coming as the week goes on. Time to get some extra logs in for the fire.

I know, generally I could not agree more but if snow is in the forecast? Some principles are worth ditching!

This one's easy. If snow is forecast for the South East, it is in the South East. If snow is forecast for Central Southern England then that's where Reading is. This logic can be stretched up to a point but once you have convinced yourself Reading is in the Scottish Borders you are probably clutching at straws I used to live in Bristol and sometimes Bristol was in Wales or the West Midlands, and occasionally (1978/9) was firmly in the West Country. AS

I hope you don't mean my profile! Agree about the cold - get the cold here and then who knows what could develop - history tells us to keep an open mind (even though the models later today have suggested we shouldn't get our hopes up too much for now) AS

no, please keep posting, I just thought you were subtly telling me there was something embarassing in my profile that contradicted what was in my post! It's this regional thread that got me confident enough to post a bit more often so definitely keep going! AS

it's a good question! PS Why did you post a link to my rather boring profile?!