abruzzi spur

BBC TV news forecast just said a cold week, mostly dry 'more details on Countryfile'. So that suggests more details of the mostly dry and cold theme, but I would expect them to say something around the risk of some snow showers from time to time and increasing uncertainty at the end of the week. Mind you it doesn't matter what I think they'll say as in less than an hour they are going to say something and this post will be redundant (and probably entirely wrong!) AS

trouble is Jo that they have all, GFS, ECM and UKMO, been down this afternoon and evening, but maybe this yo yo has a very long string and is about to hit the bottom and then magically spin its way back up again!

ECM tonight shows a few cold or v cold days with some snow risk and then the air seeps out of our cold high pressure and it sinks, allowing the Atlantic to stroll in with milder weather. Any Easterly looks slack then gone. After that, difficult to say but that is well beyond the reliable anyway. Maybe tomorrow it will have changed again, but we do now have all the main models saying something that is broadly similar. AS

I see Steve M has already been on with the latest model update from this afternoon's 4pm runs - not good news after the next few days, and shows why the Met Office are talking in their latest update about milder weather possibly moving back in during the first full week of Feb..... Will the ECM model later today show a different solution? Tense, in't it! AS

That's a very poor poem, I have to say! AS

Country Tracks forecast looks reasonable the way things stand at the moment, but with weather from an east or south east direction small changes can have a large impact on snow prospects. Whether we get changes that increase snow chances remains, of course, to be seen. As I posted on the SE England regional thread this morning, lots to watch but not yet much to see! AS

Morning all Concentrating on what appears likely for the next few days I think we can say with reasonable confidence that it is going to turn pretty cold. Winds might, however, be quite light and more south-east than east, which is less likely to produce the showers from instability that a direct east or north east feed could produce from the north sea. So at the moment things are looking fairly dry. Night times could be very cold as this set up develops. However, it's important I think to keep in mind that for those looking for snow prospects from the east, the thing to watch for is the cold air getting in situ, and then watching for small developments of wind direction, and other disruptions, that can change things quite dramatically in terms of snow potential. An alternative is for the Atlantic to push in and produce battleground snow, depending on the angle of approach, but this can be risky as a push too far east can mean a snow to rain scenario. If the cold then pushes back, that rain can of course turn back to snow. Lots to watch, but (if this makes sense) not much to see yet! AS

Look forward to his predictions of imminent mayhem as when a band of ferocious intermittent sleet advanced through the Cheshire Gap towards us unsuspecting folk in the SE!

Not yet it isn't. I asked the mods about this a few weeks back and was advised that in quieter times the threads are amalgamated to some extent. However, if the London & SE thread reappears soon, you could perhaps take that as an indication that things are about to get more lively! AS

From the MO, updated lunchtime today. Suggests there is still the risk of some milder air pushing in to the West, how far it gets who knows. This seems a very sensible update based on the models as they stand today. Given the model variance over the last week or more, however, this could all change again! In the meantime, it looks promising for some in our region if you like the cold. UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Friday 10 Feb 2012: Although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear or sunny spells, and scattered light wintry showers. At the same time westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain and sometimes snow on hills. Temperatures will probably be below average, and windchill will make it feel colder still when exposed to the easterly winds. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather seems likely. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with central and eastern areas being most prone. However, milder conditions may well push into the north and west at times. Updated: 1230 on Fri 27 Jan 2012 Also, here is a link for today's video from a senior MO forecaster, that uses the phrase 'prolonged cold spell'. Do try to stay calm folks: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/cold-weather-setting-in

Thanks Reef, that makes perfect sense, I shall now annoy those to the west of me with my ramblings. AS

Thank you for admirable clarity and analysis, your post has really helped me, as someone trying to learn, to cut through a lot of the 'stuff' that can dominate this thread. AS

Hello those in charge, top job, many thanks and all that. However, I can't find a current London and SE regional thread. Not that I have anything interesting to post tonight (which may in the view of many be no different to any other night), other than it is blinkin' mild again, but I would have liked the opportunity to post such meaningless trivia and have someone reply in vaguely sympathetic form.... I do not rule out the possibility that this is entirely attributable to user error in which case I am, in anticipation of being told off, sorry. Thanks AS

Steps to help you enjoy a very mild Christmas Eve: 1. log fire 2. home made pizza 3. vin rouge 4. home made mince pies 5. home made sloe gin 6. presents ready to go in kids' stockings 7. (optional) more sloe gin after completing this list you probably won't care that it isn't snowing! Happy Christmas AS

Heavy rain shower just now from very threatening dark cloud. Thought the intensity of preciptation might mean a change to sleet/snow, but nothing doing. AS

Morning all Just back from walk along North Downs. Light rain blew in then turned to snow as it got heavier, then back to rain. If it is that marginal at that height I don't hold out much hope for lower ground. Still a little lying snow up there though AS

Light drizzle here. May hem my wife's skirt whilst watching it fall AS

Delighted to report a good few cm of something from Cheshire down here in the North Downs. Very unexpected, but definitely some of the nicest cheese I have had for some time. AS

Thought I would get this in so that as the weather warms up next week, this thread has a report of a genuine sighting of snow still on the ground. The snow line on the North Downs is now right at the very top, still lightly visible on the very highest section that I can see from the house (230m asl). An hour ago it was down closer to 150m, so soon it will be gone. Looked great while it lasted and it did that odd thing of making low hills look higher (or is that just me?). It will disappear last from the top of Leith Hill no doubt, as that is c.290m (and the tower takes it over the pyschologically important 1000ft barrier!) AS

Looking up to the North Downs, they are white with settled snow. AS

Only short lived though, very light snow now and I expect a rapid melt! Able now to see through the cloud/murk from the house up to Reigate and Colley Hills where it does seem to have settled. As the cloud lifts all should be revealed...... AS

snow is now settling on the usual suspects (not the film, but the cars, bins etc). Quite heavy and temp must have dropped a bit AS

I am now prepared to say that it is snowing. Wet, but definitely a notch up from sleet. It's amazing what a difference there is just because of a small amount of extra height. GP, you need to sort out your altitude problem! AS

Yes, got a bit more altitude here. The sleet line must be between 78m and 105m asl! In heavier bursts the sleet almost looks like snow, but what a contrast to last year when sleet would have signified a warm day... AS

Update to earlier post (6.15am) We now have sleet. Note to self: humming winter wonderland not really appropriate. AS