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Everything posted by Summer tyre
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Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Summer tyre replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The earliest to come into full leaf are normally horse chestnuts. Take a look at those as they may give a pointer to how it will go (says he, desperately trying to get back on forecasting topic!) -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Summer tyre replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And yet the ensemble shows it running further north, perhaps sparing the south west and south coast? -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Summer tyre replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This interesting dog leg structure (the green 'river') running through Wales and dropping across Hampshire looks almost exactly like this morning's rain radar. Is there a reason this is persisting? -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Summer tyre replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm not seeing warmth at all - it looks like while it may be sunny at times those nagging nor-easters will keep the east and southeast feeling unpleasantly cold all week. -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Summer tyre replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Litte ray of sunshine for all of us -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Summer tyre replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tiny changes could make so much difference. The Met Office shows this deepening little low going into Northern France tomorrow, whereas ECFMG shows it tracking along pretty much the M4 corridor. That's going to make so much difference to the wind we get here on the south coast! Faites vos jeux... -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
Summer tyre replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thank you for that. That's the clearest explanation of amplification I have seen. So while the AMPLITUDE of the waveform increases, this causes the lows piling in from the west to slow down and eventually, the pattern of the scandi high (in this instance, i recognise) blocks it so we get weather systems moving more slowly towards and over us, yes? -
Has anyone taken a look at the live radar recently? Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar | Netweather WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Live weather radar for the UK including weather type to track whether rain, sleet or snow is falling. Updated every 5 minutes. The arctic air has met the westerly influx in the middle of the country - over and to the north of Bradford. And the whole thing has stalled! It must be pouring snow in Bradford - but lashings of rain in York and likely to stay that way for a while, I suggest.
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Wednesday 8th March weather observations
Summer tyre replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Quite a lot of ppn overnight; sleety rain rather than anything more hopeful with a temperature drop to +1.3 but the DP never went below zero. Bizarrely, we have a stiff breeze from the EAST, which doesn't make sense looking at the radar. -
We had lots fall overnight; the rain gauge saw just under 12mm from 2am. However, the temperature stayed stubbornly around 4 deg C so if any was snow it didn't stay snow. At 06:30 I could see a little very watery slush on the outside wooden table but nothing on cars or grass. However, at about 05:00 the air temperature suddenly dropped to about 1 deg C and we have a little snow in the air. It won't settle unless it gets much heavier and can freeze the sodden ground now. Like @lottiekent our DP is +1.2, so I'm not hopeful.
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
Summer tyre replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Astonishing. The nowcast looks as though it is tracking a line through Bangor to York; everything south of that will get something.The late shift pros are really earning their money tonight!