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Mcconnor8

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Everything posted by Mcconnor8

  1. Mcconnor8
    I first joined the thread for the couple of weeks building up to the July heatwave and it was super busy here and everybody looking for upgrades likewise with any hope of cold during Winter
  2. Mcconnor8
    If they all trend towards the GFS today then some people have a lot of apologising to do, obviously still not the form horse though.
  3. Mcconnor8
    Surely with ensembles also moving down this strongly on GFS and them not being part of the upgrade we will see the same in either the ECM OP or EPS 0z shortly?
  4. Mcconnor8
    If anything GFS is firming up as ensembles now falling into line with the OP on the 18z where previously the OP was an outlier among them, control also been very consistent with the OP, does anyone know where to find the ECM 18z control run?
  5. Mcconnor8
    GFS does look a tiny bit less amplified so far but mostly the same, how long can this continue with other models disagreeing before we get agreement?
  6. Mcconnor8
    I think it will take me a while to forgive the GFS if it is indeed playing a wind up on us with this one. However it is at least showing decent consistency run to run at the moment which maybe does raise confidence in it, as others have said ECM this morning and runs rest of the day should give a clearer picture.
  7. Mcconnor8
    Isn't there a good chance it is still too warm on Monday morning for snow? I'm seeing temps of 2-3 degrees then or are dewpoints lower?
  8. Mcconnor8
    Surely the temp drop in that short a time on that super low perturbation (P30?) would be a record? It drops like a stone
  9. Mcconnor8
    Nope nothing in Brighton, think we will only see actual snow under the light green / yellow
  10. Mcconnor8
    Yeah I expect we will see snow showers across most the south east over the next 9-12 hours with it being more North than modelled, but likely not very heavy so likely won't settle much or make much difference to ground snow levels.
  11. Mcconnor8
    Any current Arome/Arpege precipitation models for the South/South East tonight? The system moving over South West at the moment is more North and East than previously modelled so wondering if it will reach the South East later?
  12. Mcconnor8
    Yes the band of rain/snow starting to hit the South West is more North than modelled which means it should catch the South East coast and slightly inland this evening/overnight, not sure how heavy it will still be by then though.
  13. Mcconnor8
    If you watch the radar last hour you can see the west side of the snow starting to drop south and wrap around, kind of like it is swirling back around to the south east coast
  14. Mcconnor8
    Think it will wind back around to Horsham/Crawley area of West Sussex overnight? Does look like it is turning that way but will the precipitation die out before it gets there you think?
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