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Mcconnor8

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Everything posted by Mcconnor8

  1. Mcconnor8
    Had non stop lightning and thunder every second for over 2 hours now, looks like finally approaching the end.
  2. Mcconnor8
    Huge strike right in front of my eyes, pretty close, one of the best I've ever seen. The lightning rate from this storm is incredible.
  3. Mcconnor8
    Very bright flashes now and loud thunder, no rain here yet though.
  4. Mcconnor8
    Zak M headed right my way! Wonder how quickly it will lose strength now it is moving into the less unstable air
  5. Mcconnor8
    tomdewey It won't reach the South West until 3-5AM probably
  6. Mcconnor8
    New cells popping up off the coast at Southend headed West to London
  7. Mcconnor8
  8. Mcconnor8
  9. Mcconnor8
    The pun run going for the cold northerly at day 9 post Easter.
  10. Mcconnor8
    GFS 18z looks quite nasty with a pretty deep low at 5 days out, sub 955mb, will be interesting to see if the GFS or ECM is on the right track here as they have very different solutions at a relatively short time frame.
  11. Mcconnor8
    ANYWEATHER it may feel like that but on verification stats for the Northern Hemisphere the ECM has still been on top out of all the models more often than not in the last year.
  12. Mcconnor8
    Neilsouth Nope, a low pressure fest on both of them for the next 7-10 days unfortunately, I'm off to Mallorca for a few days at the weekend to get some needed sun and thankfully looks like it will tap into some Southern Europe warmth while I'm there which is a bonus. Still doesn't really look like any impact from the SSW in the modelling at the moment either.
  13. Mcconnor8
    WINTRY WALES There are heat record being smashed worldwide though, Northern Africa currently pulverising lots of records, but yes Western Europe particularly vulnerable I think to climate change as highlighted by the comparisons in snowfall during Winter from pre 1980 compared to since which is quite a huge drop.
  14. Mcconnor8
    I think it is more down to the higher SSTs in the Atlantic hampering the building of high pressure in the specific areas that we need it to get proper cold into this country, which is climate change driven. We are simply more susceptible to the effects of Climate Change than many other areas of the world due to our location. I don't see how there could be any correlation between Nuclear testing and the weather as forces in play weather wise are far greater than could be influenced by that.
  15. Mcconnor8
    lassie23 I think historically a summer that takes place during the transition to La Nina from an El Nino is wetter than average, which is what is expected currently, but I really hope we do get that dry summer as the rain really has been relentless for 8 months now.
  16. Mcconnor8
    Very uninspiring ECM at day 7, looks worse than the GFS and other models cold wise and the GFS 12z ensemble also seems to have downgraded somewhat 850s wise for the end of next week onwards albeit the OP and Control still look okay.
  17. Mcconnor8
    Met4Cast Thats the GEM not GEFS ensemble, GEFS doesn't look too different from earlier runs to me.
  18. Mcconnor8
    chrisnoy Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) | Causes, Effects, & Strategies WWW.CARBONCOLLECTIVE.CO This article introduces anthropogenic global warming - what causes it, how we're causing it, and why it's important to mitigate climate change.
  19. Mcconnor8
    chrisnoy https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_hres.php - This is the ECM 06z run to 90 hours, comes out around 1Pm each day https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwfens_cartes.php - This is the Control run which goes to T+144 and comes out about an hour later.
  20. Mcconnor8
    feb1991blizzard Cold uppers never even reached the UK lol
  21. Mcconnor8
    MattStoke I've been monitoring the models today and it has been a surprisingly large shift North across all of them given it is just 24 hours away, always typical that these shifts go in the wrong direction.
  22. Mcconnor8
    sheikhy The warm front looks quite a bit further north on the UKV 12z than the 06z judging by these temperatures on Thursday morning I think.
  23. Mcconnor8
    Ali1977 Yeah GFS on the 18z was the furthest North of any run today so think we will see the Arpege move towards the other models over the next few runs. UKMO 18z also shifted North a tiny bit.
  24. Mcconnor8
    Interesting difference in the Rain/Snow line between the GFS 18z and ICON 18z at just 36 hours away on Thursday morning.
  25. Mcconnor8
    Lukesluckybunch Don't worry at T+144 it is on its way
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